THE BRISBANE Lions will know by late Saturday afternoon whether they remain in the race for the 2007 finals – from there it will be a simple equation.

For the Lions to experience September action, eighth-placed Adelaide (44 points) must first lose to sixth-placed Collingwood on Friday night.

And St Kilda (42 points and the current occupant of ninth spot) will have to be upset by or draw with potential wooden-spooners Richmond on Saturday afternoon.

Should those results go their way, the Lions will effectively be playing for their own destiny against Geelong at the Gabba on Saturday night. The Lions (108 per cent) would have to win by enough to make up a single percentage point on Adelaide.

Fremantle (11th spot, 40 points) remains an exceptionally slender mathematical finals proposition, but has a percentage of only 104 and would need to thrash Port Adelaide, while still relying on other results.

The Geelong side the Lions will face at the Gabba is coming off its first loss for 16 weeks, a five-point thriller against Port Adelaide at Kardinia Park on Sunday afternoon:

Geelong
Record: 17-4, first
Last five: WWWWL
Formline: The Cats’ quest for 16 straight wins came up short when Dominic Cassisi’s goal with three seconds left snatched a five-point win for Port Adelaide at Skilled Stadium. Despite the round 21 hiccup it’s impossible to ignore Geelong’s credentials, given that it will finish the home and away season at least two games clear at the top of the table and has a percentage of 154.

The games that matter this weekend:
Collingwood v Adelaide, Friday 7.40pm, Docklands
Richmond v St Kilda, Saturday 2.10pm, MCG
Brisbane Lions v Geelong, Saturday 7.10pm, the Gabba
Port Adelaide v Fremantle, Saturday 7.10pm (Adelaide time), AAMI Stadium.