64 points (16 wins, no losses), 169.80 per cent
The run home:
Rd 17: Western Bulldogs at Docklands
Rd 18: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Rd 19: Hawthorn at Aurora Stadium
Rd 20: Essendon at Docklands
Rd 21: North Melbourne at Docklands
Rd 22: Melbourne at the MCG
Guaranteed a top-two finish. Will use the last month or so to warm up for the club’s biggest finals series since 1997. Could rest some of their guns or at least use rotations to lessen their load.
2. Geelong
56 points (14 wins, two losses) 138.97 per cent
The run home:
Rd 17: Hawthorn at the MCG
Rd 18: Adelaide at Skilled Stadium
Rd 19: Carlton at the MCG
Rd 20: Sydney Swans at ANZ Stadium
Rd 21: Western Bulldogs at Docklands
Rd 22: Fremantle at Skilled Stadium
The Cats lost two on the trot and don’t look so invincible since being beaten by St Kilda. Their ageing defence will need to be managed in the lead-up to an intense finals series.
3. Western Bulldogs
44 points (11 wins, five losses) 128.72 per cent
The run home:
Rd 17: St Kilda at Docklands
Rd 18: Fremantle at Docklands
Rd 19: West Coast at Docklands
Rd 20: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Rd 21: Geelong at Docklands
Rd 22: Collingwood at Docklands
Have to keep winning to ensure the double chance. This week’s clash with the Saints and appointments with the Cats and Magpies in rounds 21 and 22 will be pivotal.
4. Collingwood
40 points (10 wins, six losses) 112.21 per cent
The run home:
Rd 17: Carlton at the MCG
Rd 18: Brisbane Lions at the MCG
Rd 19: Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 20: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 21: Sydney Swans at the MCG
Rd 22: Western Bulldogs at Docklands
Saturday's loss to the Hawks has the Pies looking over their shoulders. They have a few easy games but a trip to Adelaide to take on the Crows and the round 22 match with the Bulldogs are the big ones.
5. Brisbane Lions
40 points (10 wins, six losses) 108.98 per cent
The run home:
Rd 17: North Melbourne at the Gabba
Rd 18: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 19: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 20: Western Bulldogs at the Gabba
Rd 21: Port Adelaide at the Gabba
Rd 22: Sydney Swans at the SCG
The Lions have kept answering the challenges in 2009. Given a reasonable draw they’ll still have their sights on the top four, although they’ll have to beat fellow contenders Collingwood and the Bulldogs to do so.
6. Adelaide
40 points (10 wins, six losses), 107.16 per cent
The run home:
Rd 17: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 18: Geelong at Skilled Stadium
Rd 19: Collingwood at AAMI Stadium
Rd 20: Hawthorn at the MCG
Rd 21: West Coast at AAMI Stadium
Rd 22: Carlton at Docklands
The Crows face a tough month with the Showdown followed by clashes with the Cats (away), Collingwood and the resurgent Hawks. How they go in the next four weeks will determine whether or not they are top-four material.
7. Carlton
36 points (nine wins, seven losses), 112.53 per cent
The run home:
Rd 17: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 18: North Melbourne at Docklands
Rd 19: Geelong at the MCG
Rd 20: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 21: Melbourne at Docklands
Rd 22: Adelaide at Docklands
The Blues are hanging in the eight by a whisker and have a simple equation – keep winning. The Pies, Cats and Crows will be their biggest challenges while the clash with Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium might decide both sides’ fates.
8. Essendon
32 points (8 wins, eight losses) 101.34 per cent
The run home:
Rd 17: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 18: West Coast at Subiaco
Rd 19: Brisbane Lions at the MCG
Rd 20: St Kilda at Docklands
Rd 21: Fremantle at Subiaco
Rd 22: Hawthorn at the MCG
A softish draw should ensure they make finals. The Bombers have been the surprise packets of 2009 and would have sides worried in the first week of the finals, given their run and stun style.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
9. Port Adelaide
32 points (eight wins, eight losses) 94.54 per cent
The run home:
Rd 17: Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 18: Hawthorn at AAMI Stadium
Rd 19: Fremantle at Subiaco
Rd 20: Carlton at AAMI Stadium
Rd 21: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Rd 22: North Melbourne at AAMI Stadium
The Power have a kind enough draw for them to make it if good enough. Inconsistency is likely to cost them, particularly the round 15 loss to Melbourne. The round 20 clash with Carlton will be decisive.
10. Hawthorn
32 points (eight wins, eight losses) 92.65 per cent
The run home:
Rd 17: Geelong at the MCG
Rd 18: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 19: St Kilda at Aurora Stadium
Rd 20: Adelaide at the MCG
Rd 21: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 22: Essendon at the MCG
The Hawks are back and if they play like they did in the second half against Collingwood, they can beat anyone. Look for them to charge towards the finals, although matches against the Saints, Cats and Crows will test their mettle.
11. Sydney Swans
32 points (six wins, 10 losses) 89.71 per cent
The run home:
Rd 17: Melbourne at Manuka Oval
Rd 18: St Kilda at the SCG
Rd 19: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 20: Geelong at ANZ Stadium
Rd 21: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 22: Brisbane Lions at the SCG
Appear all but gone in their quest for finals in 2009. Need to make every post a winner and hope results go their way. Clashes with Collingwood, Geelong and St Kilda could end their run for once and for all.
12. North Melbourne
22 points (four wins, 11 losses, one draw) 78.98 per cent
The run home:
Rd 17: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Rd 18: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 19: Melbourne at Docklands
Rd 20: West Coast at Subiaco
Rd 21: St Kilda at Docklands
Rd 22: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
The Roos are honest but very much a work in progress. At this stage they’ll find themselves in most games but unlikely to grab more than a couple of wins. Finals for 2009 would require divine intervention.
13. West Coast
16 points (four wins, 12 losses), 86.68 per cent
The run home:
Rd 17: Fremantle at Subiaco
Rd 18: Essendon at Subiaco
Rd 19: Western Bulldogs at Docklands
Rd 20: North Melbourne at Subiaco
Rd 21: Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 22: Richmond at Subiaco
The Eagles have several winnable games on the way home with just two likely blow-outs, against the Dogs at Docklands and the Crows at AAMI Stadium. A couple of wins would give the youngsters some hope heading into pre-season. Would need a miracle to make the eight.
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
