FOOTY has been changing this decade. Players are getting faster, interchanges are rising, there is now full-ground flooding, zone defences, which is all leading to a drop in long kicks, and sharp rises in handballs and uncontested possessions.
The traditionalists lament the change. They’ve been crying out for the return of the contest.
And while record crowds suggest that footy is as healthy and popular as ever, there may be some relief in sight for the disenchanted types yearning for man-on-man battles.
A statistical review at the mid-point of season 2010 suggests that, for the first time since the early 2000s, AFL footy is trending back towards the long kick and contest.
Long Kicks v Handballs
The rate of handballs per game has risen staggeringly in the past decade. From an average 108.9 per game in season 2001, to a peak of 177.1 per game last year, the skill made famous by Polly Farmer and Ron Barassi has become a more important part of our game than ever before.
But, for the first time in 10 years, handballs are on the decline this year, a slight drop back to an average 170 per game - but a drop nonetheless.
At the same time, there are signs that long kicking is back in vogue. Having dropped sharply every year since 2000, long kicks per game are up so far in 2010.
Luke Darcy told afl.com.au that he is thrilled with the changes that are taking place.
"As basic and simple as it sounds, kick it long to a contest, get front-and-centre, try to outnumber the opposition at the contest, and everyone said it was too basic, but maybe we're going back to that, backing yourself and giving your forwards a one-on-one opportunity inside 50," he said.
"That's what sides are going back to after all this 'get all your numbers back behind the footy'.
"That brand of football - where you go long down the line and back yourselves in to have more numbers there and win more contested possession - is not a bad formula for success, and there have been a lot of sides through the journey that have played that way and been really good at it.
"To me, it's a great reminder of letting the game evolve on its own, and never to be concerned - if you don't like what you're seeing from a certain side or a certain period, you don't have to wait too long, because the trend will be reversed."
Contested v Uncontested Possessions
Having also moved further apart for the past 10 years (with contested possession declining and uncontested possession on the rise), these two figures have began turning back towards each other this season.
Contested possession has taken a sharp rise back to its year 2000 levels, up to 127.5 per game this year from a low of 106.9 per game in 2006. Meanwhile uncontested possession has dropped from a peak of 254.4 last year to 238.8 at the mid-point of 2010.
In 2000, the magical 20 contested possession game was achieved by a player on 17 occasions. This happened just once in 2009 and twice each in 2008 and 2007.
In 2010, four players have already broken 20 contested possessions in a game, led by Jude Bolton’s record of 26 in round 11.
So why is it happening?
While many like to blame high interchange rates for the rise in uncontested possession, a switch in focus this season has seen the same factor contribute to the resurgence of contests and long-kicking.
Coaches have seen the way players like Cyril Rioli can influence a game with defensive pressure, and are using the fresh legs at their disposal to swarm numbers to the contest, particularly within the two 50m arcs.
As a result, kicking the ball long and quickly to the forward line has become a necessity once again. Hold it up, chip it around, and before you know it you’ll be looking at 18 opposition players blocking your path to goal.
And, with some of the game’s forwards enjoying outstanding seasons and reeling in contested grabs - see James Podsiadly, Jack Riewoldt, Kurt Tippett, Jonathan Brown, Travis Cloke and Barry Hall - the good old-fashioned long kick to your key big man is looking as attractive as ever.
Footy is an ever-evolving game, but when the key principle remains the same - get the ball forward and kick a goal - it’s funny how the rest of it finds a way to even itself out.
The views in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.