WHERE AND WHEN: Etihad Stadium, Saturday July 14, 1.45pm
LAST TIME: Melbourne 22.17 (149) d Fremantle 8.12 (60), round 13, 2011, at the MCG
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This shapes as a season defining period for Fremantle as it faces Melbourne, Greater Western Sydney and Port Adelaide in the next three weeks, which could put it on 10 wins with five games to play. Fremantle has a reasonable record in Victoria this season having won two from three against good opposition so will be confident against the Demons. Matthew Pavlich is in rare form and shapes as the game changer. He provides something Melbourne lacks in the absence of Mitch Clark: a genuine forward target. The game will be tight and tough but Fremantle has the edge in class so should win.
THE FOUR POINTS
MELBOURNE
1. Forgetting pre-season games, Melbourne's most recent win at Etihad Stadium was in round 19, 2007 when it defeated the Western Bulldogs by 42 points. It has lost 11 consecutive games at the venue since, with the narrowest margin being 20 points. It is time the Demons began to turn around that record.
2. The loss of Clark can't be underestimated and now the challenge is to restructure its approach to score goals. Clark's absence may explain the Demons' poor ball use last week, trying to execute an unfamiliar pattern of ball movement. This should improve and will stand Melbourne in good stead in the future but there might be an early price to pay.
3. Brad Green kicked six in the VFL and proved he could get through a game so should earn a recall. He looks to be nearing the end of his career but he is dangerous around goal, can find space and is a good kick so has plenty to offer between now and the end of the year.
4. The Demons can't solve their problem in the midfield overnight. Coach Mark Neeld declared after last week's game it is looking to develop a group of midfielders who can get 25-plus possessions in a game, something only Nathan Jones and Colin Sylvia are managing at this stage. However Jeremy Howe and Jack Grimes are emerging and Jack Trengove is at least showing signs in the past few weeks as his marking power is returning. Further improvement is needed this week.
FREMANTLE
1. Fremantle's form on the road this season has improved, the club notching impressive wins in Melbourne against Richmond (round 11) and St Kilda (round four). The team's last match at the MCG saw it fight back when on the verge of a blowout loss to win the last quarter against Collingwood in a gritty 29-point loss. Road wins against Melbourne, Port Adelaide (round 18) and North Melbourne (round 22) will strengthen the club's finals claims.
2. The captain Pavlich has been in dominant form, prompting suggestions that the champion forward could be in line for a seventh All Australian guernsey. Stationed in attack more permanently, Pavlich has kicked 20 goals in his past four games and 34 for the season. He has been particularly impressive at the MCG, kicking bags of five and six in recent clashes against Collinwood and Richmond.
3. How will Ross Lyon manage his tall stocks against Melbourne? Key defender Antoni Grover put himself in the coach's good books against the Western Bulldogs by running with the flight of the ball and taking a heavy hit, and Zac Dawson, who has been an important player when fit, could return from a three-week knee injury. Against the Bulldogs, defender Luke McPharlin was used forward for periods, forward Kepler Bradley impressed in his return, and Michael Johnson continues to excel as a loose man in defence. Lyon has options, which must be a good thing.
4. Fremantle won the clearances (42-39) and the inside 50s (54-36) against the Bulldogs, but there are pace issues in the midfield. When Stephen Hill is shut out of the game like he was when opposed to Bulldog Liam Picken, Fremantle lacks midfield run, with Clancee Pearce, Nick Lower and Matt de Boer doing their best work in close. Anthony Morabito's return is highly anticipated, but he is expected to play in the WAFL this week before pushing for senior selection.
AFL.com.au prediction: Fremantle by 14 points
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL
