ROUND one is almost over, and what have we learned? Geelong remains the team to beat, St Kilda is its greatest challenger and Melbourne looks a sure thing for the wooden spoon.

Right?

Well, maybe. If there’s one thing round one has told us in recent years, it’s that round one sometimes doesn’t tell us much at all.

As recently as last year, the season’s opening weekend was a downright misleading reflection of what lay ahead.

In round one 2007, the biggest winners – and thus the occupants of the top five ladder positions – were the Brisbane Lions, St Kilda, Essendon, Western Bulldogs and Carlton. You might notice what they have in common: not one of these teams went on to make the finals.

Eventual premier Geelong started the season in 13th spot, not hitting its straps until that 157-point belting of Richmond in round six.

And let's not forget that North Melbourne lost its first three matches last season and was widely tipped for the spoon, before making a preliminary final.

Conversely, the Western Bulldogs were talked up last year as a premiership threat, and looked on target after beating Geelong by 20 points first-up. A single draw from their final seven rounds buried the Dogs’ chances.

So, with the wisdom of seven matches behind us, what could round two hold?

Here’s a thought: Melbourne, despite being munched by the Hawks in its opener, could quite realistically beat the Western Bulldogs next Saturday.

Right now the Demons are under the pump. No question. Coach Dean Bailey says his players will hit the track this week in an effort to regain confidence. How they respond with their backs against the wall will be intriguing. Quite rightly, the Bulldogs will start as overwhelming favourites.

Whatever happens, no team should be written off this early into the season. The Roos proved that sides can absorb early losses. Port Adelaide proved that even a mid-season slump can be ridden: making the grand final last year despite at one stage losing four in a row.

But if no supporter should take an early loss too hard, neither should anyone bask too freely in the glow of early victories.

Footy's back, but round one is only the first course in a 22-course banquet. Bring on the next 21 dishes.

The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.