Swan was a $1.80 favourite on Monday morning, after finishing the home-and-away season a clear $2.50 pick.
Remarkably, Swan finished the year a firm favourite but money continued to pour in for the Pies ball magnet.
“Once he won the [AFLPA] MVP, we got him into $2 because people started backing him and then they just kept backing him,” TAB Sportsbet’s Gary Davies told afl.com.au.
“People take that into account and think, ‘oh yeah, he is a certainty’, so they keep on piling it on.
“Even though he’s our worst result, there’s no big bets on him as such. There’s so many medium-sized bets on him ... $100, $200, $400, there’s just so many bets we’ve written on him.”
Reigning Brownlow medallist Gary Ablett is again considered a strong chance and is second pick at $4.50.
However, Davies said with the Cats now out of the running for the premiership, Ablett wouldn't be such a bad result for the betting agency.
“We’re cheering him now,” Davies said.
“We weren’t cheering him last year [when he was favourite and the Cats were in the grand final], but allegiances can change very quickly in the bookmaking fraternity.
“If Gazza wins tonight, it’s a pretty good result for us. If Swan wins tonight and then Collingwood happens to win on Saturday, then it’s a disaster.”
Davies, a Collingwood supporter, said he found himself in a tough spot this week.
“I’m in a real quandary, I don’t know whether the head rules the heart this week or not,” he said.
“Being a Collingwood supporter, the heart says Swan and Collingwood, but with the backing for both, I’d better toe the corporate line."
Brownlow fast facts
- $1.80 favourite Dane Swan is the shortest-priced favourite in 11 years, when Shane Crawford began the vote count a white-hot $1.50 chance.
- Last year’s winner, Gary Ablett, was $2.75 when the 2009 count started.
- Swan started the year at $13 with TAB Sportsbet, but drifted to $34 after round five.
- More than $3 million will be wagered on the Brownlow medal.
- Punters continue to look for value, with one punter having $10 on Saint Sam Fisher on Monday morning at $5001.
- TAB Sportsbet’s biggest potential payout is a pre-season bet of $2000 on Aaron Sandilands at $151.
- The betting firm’s worst result is a Dane Swan win.
- The biggest individual bet is $15,000 on Ablett at $6 - before the season started.
2010 Brownlow medal market - courtesy of TAB Sportsbet
Dane Swan: $1.80
Gary Ablett: $4.50
Luke Hodge: $11
Scott Pendlebury: $11
Brendon Goddard: $13
Chris Judd: $17
Lenny Hayes: $21
Aaron Sandilands: $21
Adam Goodes: $26
Brent Harvey: $26
Joel Selwood: $26
Leigh Montagna: $34
