1. St Kilda
72 points (18 wins, no losses), 164.32 per cent
The run home:
Rd 19: Hawthorn at Aurora Stadium
Rd 20: Essendon at Docklands
Rd 21: North Melbourne at Docklands
Rd 22: Melbourne at the MCG
The Saints got the fright of their lives from the Sydney Swans before Leigh Montagna kept the streak alive with a behind with 20 seconds left at the SCG. Next week's clash against the Hawks looms as the last major obstacle to a perfect season, but top spot is all but secured.
2. Geelong
64 points (16 wins, two losses) 134.15 per cent
The run home:
Rd 19: Carlton at the MCG
Rd 20: Sydney Swans at ANZ Stadium
Rd 21: Western Bulldogs at Docklands
Rd 22: Fremantle at Skilled Stadium
The Cats were served up another mighty challenge just a week after overcoming the Hawks after the siren. The Crows led them late, but the visitors couldn't combat the brilliance of Paul Chapman. Geelong will be without Harry Taylor and Matthew Scarlett again next week against the Blues, but didn't suffer any further damage on Saturday. Would need to drop the remaining four to let go of second spot, which isn't going to happen.
3. Western Bulldogs
48 points (12 wins, six losses) 124.46 per cent
The run home:
Rd 19: West Coast at Docklands
Rd 20: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Rd 21: Geelong at Docklands
Rd 22: Collingwood at Docklands
Healthy percentage sees the Dogs hold onto third spot ahead of the Pies. Chalk down the game against the Eagles, who have a diabolical record on the road, but the remaining three matches will tell us a lot about the legitimacy of the Bullies' flag claims.
4. Collingwood
48 points (12 wins, six losses) 117.73 per cent
The run home:
Rd 19: Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 20: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 21: Sydney Swans at the MCG
Rd 22: Western Bulldogs at Docklands
The Pies gave themselves a nice leg-up to a top-four berth with a big win over the Lions. Beating the Crows will surely see them attain that goal, but Adelaide has its own top-four ambitions, making next week's game a beauty.
5. Adelaide
44 points (11 wins, seven losses), 111.01 per cent
The run home:
Rd 19: Collingwood at AAMI Stadium
Rd 20: Hawthorn at the MCG
Rd 21: West Coast at AAMI Stadium
Rd 22: Carlton at Docklands
Nearly did the unthinkable in downing the Cats on their home patch, but walk away knowing they can match it with the best. Face stern tests in their bid for a top-four spot, but need just one more win to be assured of a finals berth.
6. Brisbane Lions
44 points (11 wins, seven losses) 108.04 per cent
The run home:
Rd 19: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 20: Western Bulldogs at the Gabba
Rd 21: Port Adelaide at the Gabba
Rd 22: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Missed an opportunity to move into the top four against the Pies, but two games at the Gabba mean that lofty finish is still a distinct possibility. It could come down to the round 22 clash against the Swans, who will still be tough to beat in Sydney despite being realistically out of the hunt.
7. Carlton
40 points (10 wins, eight losses), 108.52 per cent
The run home:
Rd 19: Geelong at the MCG
Rd 20: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 21: Melbourne at Docklands
Rd 22: Adelaide at Docklands
The Blues are still a mathematical chance to make the four, but on Friday night's evidence they should be looking at who's behind them, not who's in front. If the inaccurate Roos had won that match the alarm bells would be ringing loud, but even so Port and Hawthorn look set to make the last month a nervous one for Brett Ratten. Carlton needs two wins to be assured of September action and it could come down to the Crows match in round 22.
8. Port Adelaide
36 points (nine wins, nine losses) 92.40 per cent
The run home:
Rd 19: Fremantle at Subiaco
Rd 20: Carlton at AAMI Stadium
Rd 21: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Rd 22: North Melbourne at AAMI Stadium
The win against the surging Hawks could be the defining moment of Port's season. The Power have struggled to find consistency all year, but gave themselves a shot at the finals that seemed highly unlikely just a week ago. With two home games to come and the Lions their highest-ranked opponent, eighth place is now theirs to lose.
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9. Essendon
32 points (eight wins, 10 losses) 99.29 per cent
The run home:
Rd 19: Brisbane Lions at the MCG
Rd 20: St Kilda at Docklands
Rd 21: Fremantle at Subiaco
Rd 22: Hawthorn at the MCG
The wheels are seriously wobbling at Windy Hill, with costly losses in the past eight days to Richmond and West Coast. Lose against the Lions next week and those wheels could be off. A superior percentage gives the Bombers some hope of leapfrogging Port, but their fate is now out of their hands, and four difficult assignments lie ahead.
10. Hawthorn
32 points (eight wins, 10 losses) 92.48 per cent
The run home:
Rd 19: St Kilda at Aurora Stadium
Rd 20: Adelaide at the MCG
Rd 21: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 22: Essendon at the MCG
Essendon's slip-up at Subi keeps the Hawks in the hunt despite another narrow loss. While the margin for error for Al Clarkson's men is growing thinner, theirs is not yet a lost cause. They play the Saints next week, but Aurora Stadium works in Hawthorn's favour. There are no gimmes in their other three games, but all are at the MCG and are winnable if the Hawks are good enough.
11. Sydney Swans
28 points (seven wins, 11 losses) 91.62 per cent
The run home:
Rd 19: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 20: Geelong at ANZ Stadium
Rd 21: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 22: Brisbane Lions at the SCG
How different would this picture look if the Swans had managed to hold on for a shock win over St Kilda? Their hopes would probably still be bleak if we're honest, with games against mighty Geelong and the finals-bound Pies and Lions huge obstacles to a late charge. Paul Roos' men remain a mathematical chance, but in all probability can now plan their September holidays.
What are you doing this September? Find out with afl.com.au's ladder predictor
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
