SUMMARY
The rematch of last year's preliminary final could hardly have a more contrasting build-up. A fresh Swans outfit smashed the Kangaroos by 71 points on that occasion, but the visitors have far more reason to be confident this time around. Following a gallant loss to Fremantle in Perth, the Swans will limp into this elimination final minus a number of stars, while the Kangaroos bounce in off a strong victory against Richmond and a full list to choose from. Whatever happens, this encounter should be far closer than the corresponding match last year.
WHERE AND WHEN: ANZ Stadium, Saturday September 19, 7.20pm
AEST
TV, RADIO AND BETTING: Click here for broadcast guide
WHO'S MISSING?
Sydney Swans: It's a who's who of absentees for the Swans with Lance Franklin, Luke Parker and Kieren Jack all set to miss. Sam Reid's hamstring injury further depletes their forward line, while defender Nick Smith (hamstring) is racing the clock to be available.
North Melbourne: The Kangaroos could hardly be in better shape for this time of year. Aside from a slight ankle concern for Jamie Macmillan, and Daniel Wells, who has been unavailable for most of the season, they will be at full strength.
THIS YEAR
Round 11, Etihad Stadium: Sydney Swans 14.7 (91) d North Melbourne 10.15 (75)
The Swans opened up a 29-point lead at half-time and managed to hold off a fast-finishing Kangaroos. Lance Franklin kicked four goals and Luke Parker had 33 disposals in a win that moved the Swans into the top two.
PREVIOUS MEETINGS
1PF, 2014, Sydney Swans 19.22 (136) d North Melbourne 9.11 (65) at ANZ Stadium
R4, 2014, North Melbourne 13.13 (91) d Sydney Swans 6.12 (48) at the SCG
R3, 2013, Sydney Swans 20.11 (131) d North Melbourne 13.14 (92) at Blundstone Arena
R4, 2012, Sydney Swans 17.11 (113) d North Melbourne 10.17 (77) at the SCG
R10, 2011, Sydney Swans 10.12 (72) d North Melbourne 9.17 (71) at Etihad Stadium
THE SIX POINTS
1. The Swans controlled the round 11 game in the midfield. Luke Parker had 33 disposals, Jarrad McVeigh had 28, Josh Kennedy 27, and Tom Mitchell and Dane Rampe 26 apiece.
2. One advantage for the Kangaroos could be centre clearances. They are ranked equal fourth, averaging 13 a game, while the Swans are equal 12th with 11.6 a game.
3. The teams have previously met three times in finals with the Swans holding a 2-1 advantage. They won last year's preliminary final and an elimination final in 2008. Significantly though, the Kangaroos won the 1996 Grand Final.
4. The Swans are the equal best tackling team this season, averaging 72 a game. The Kangaroos are ranked 12th with 65.1 a game.
5. The Swans have won eight of nine finals at ANZ Stadium, including the past eight. Conversely the Kangaroos have travelled poorly in finals. They have played four finals outside of Victoria for four losses, three by more than 70 points.
6. Kurt Tippett's three goals against the Dockers have moved him to a career-high 111th overall – and 11th among key forwards – in the AFL Official Player Ratings.
KEY MATCH UPS
1. Ben Jacobs v Josh Kennedy
Jacobs did an incredible job in limiting Richmond skipper Trent Cotchin to just nine disposals at the weekend and will get another lockdown assignment here. Kennedy was Herculean against the Dockers with 39 disposals, and without Parker and Jack, is clearly the Swans' best midfielder.
2. Jeremy Laidler v Jarrad Waite
Waite showed just why the Kangaroos got him last off-season with his super display against Richmond. With Ted Richards and Heath Grundy expected to go to Drew Petrie and Ben Brown, Waite could again get the third tall and be tough to stop. Dane Rampe might also spend time on him, but ideally the Swans would love his run from half-back.
3. Scott Thompson v Kurt Tippett
With no Franklin and Reid in the forward line, nearly all of the Swans' attack will be geared at Tippett. His last month has been excellent and he was a dominant target against the Dockers. Thompson looks a good match-up, but Robbie Tarrant could also spend time on the big Swan.
IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR …
Sydney Swans: Adam Goodes There's a strong chance this could be the last opportunity for Swans fans to watch the champion play in Sydney. Goodes was at his vintage best against Fremantle, but unless he decides to play on in 2016, this will be his swansong in the Harbour City.
North Melbourne: Andrew Swallow He won't be alone, but Swallow will have bad memories of last year. He had 18 touches in the preliminary final, but was missing against the powerhouse Swans when it counted most. The captain knows if he can help the Kangaroos cut even in the midfield, he has the forward line to cash in.
WHERE THE SWANS CAN WIN IT
Despite their injuries, the Swans love it in-tight and contested as it was against Fremantle. That's just how the Roos like to play too. ANZ is a patchy and slippery surface that doesn't allow free-flowing footy and that will suit the Swans down to the ground. They'll need to find a way to kick goals, so if their top-shelf midfielders – Kennedy, Goodes and Dan Hannebery – can kick some, which they're well capable of, watch out.
WHERE THE KANGAROOS CAN WIN IT
They've shown they can handle pressure and 12 months on from last year's disaster, the Kangaroos are better placed. If their midfield matches the Swans', their diverse forward line looks capable of kicking a winning score. Waite and Shaun Higgins again loom as difficult match-ups if they get enough supply.
PREDICTION: North Melbourne by 10 points
