Head to head: Carlton 102 wins, Hawthorn 54 wins
Last time: Carlton 15.12 (102) def by Hawthorn 16.10 (106), round six, 2009 at the MCG
MISSING IN ACTION
Carlton
Paul Bower (quad) - 3 weeks
Brad Fisher (knee) - 1-2 weeks
Shaun Grigg (ankle) - test
Richard Hadley (knee) - test
Ryan Houlihan (hamstring) - TBA
Kane Lucas (hamstring) - TBA
Andrew Walker (collarbone) - 4 weeks
Hawthorn
Max Bailey (knee) - indefinite
Josh Gibson (hamstring) - 6-7 weeks
Rhan Hooper (hamstring) - test
Luke Lowden (groin soreness) - 1-2 weeks
Simon Taylor (fractured leg) - 8-10 weeks
FORM
Carlton: WWLWW
Hawthorn: LLLLW
SUMMARY
Carlton has only beaten the Hawks twice in the past decade, but the Blues will fancy themselves here after putting together a good month of football. Carlton sits comfortably in the top eight after dispatching finals-quality teams Geelong, St Kilda and Port Adelaide recently with last week's 26-point win over the Power an excellent effort given a couple of injury concerns on the day. Hawthorn, on the other hand, snapped an awful six-game losing run with an almost-equally awful win over the lowly Tigers. The Hawks could only beat the unbackable spoon favourites by three points, but at least they managed to get injury-prone recruit Shaun Burgoyne on the park.
PLAYER TO WATCHSam Jacobs is doing his best to keep high-priced recruit Robbie Warnock in the VFL in one of the more engrossing ruck competitions in the league. He's starting to hit his straps after a slow start to the season, but he'll need to continue to improve to keep Warnock at bay.
Shaun Burgoyne had a pretty decent debut with his new club. His skill has never been at issue, but his body certainly is. Can he start stringing some games together now?
QUESTION MARKS
Jarrad Waite comes out of the Blues' line-up after copping a two-game suspension while Kane Lucas and Ryan Houlihan are also in danger of missing with hamstring strains. How will those changes affect team chemistry?
Have the Hawks turned the corner? They've been massively disappointing this season, but maybe four premiership points will be just the tonic they needed.
WHO WILL WIN AND WHY
The Blues may have struggled with Hawthorn in recent times, but times they are a-changing. Setanta O'hAilpin and his band of small forward helpers are proving quite a handful for opponents, Chris Judd's onball brigade is humming along nicely and the backline is doing its bit too. Hawthorn has looked a shadow of its former self and doesn't look to have the class to prevail here.
PREDICTION
Carlton by 36 points
Chat with host Mic Cullen and other fans in the AFL Match Centre on afl.com.au from 1.40pm AEST Sunday or join the conversation on Twitter: #aflblueshawks
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
