AS ANY tipster will attest, the art of picking a winner is an incredibly difficult one to master.

Even if a club is sitting pretty on top of the ladder, when they come up against the side that’s traditionally got them covered, they almost inevitably fall victim to the greatest jinx in footy - the mozz.

It helps to pay close attention to the history between two clubs before making a final judgment, and as four of this weekend’s matches stick out as tricky tips, let’s put the mozz theory to the test.

Richmond v St Kilda

Why the Tigers will win:

  • Richmond made the winners list for the first time in 2010 last weekend. The last time they got the four premiership points, they then followed it up with a win the following week, in rounds 17 and 18 of 2009.
  • The Tigers have defeated the Saints eight times in round 11 encounters.

Why the Saints will win:

  • St Kilda has won a record 11 consecutive matches over the Tigers, including five wins by more than 50 points.
  • The Saints have beaten Richmond in their last eight meetings at Etihad Stadium.

The market*: Richmond $6.60, St Kilda $1.17

The mozz: Two wins in a row for the Tigers? No chance.


Carlton v Melbourne

Why the Blues will win:

  • The Blues have defeated the Demons the last two times they’ve met in round 11 (1992 and 1995). In fact, they haven’t lost to Melbourne in this round since 1990.
  • Carlton has not lost to Melbourne on a Saturday afternoon since round 9, 2005.

Why the Demons will win:

  • Melbourne may have lost its last two matches against the Blues, but in their favour they haven’t dropped three on the trot against Carlton since 1992-1994.
  • The Demons also hold a narrow advantage over the Blues in head-to-head encounters at the MCG, 48- 44 - including four of the last five matches at the venue.

The market*: Carlton $1.43, Melbourne $3.20

The mozz: Blues to exorcise the Demons comfortably, with Judd and co just a little too classy for Melbourne’s youngsters at this stage.

Adelaide v Fremantle

Why the Crows will win:

  • The Crows have a good record in this round, having won their last two round 11 matches, and four of their last five.
  • Adelaide has dominated Fremantle at AAMI Stadium, winning 11 of 14 matches, including the most recent by a record 117 points in round 15 2009. Fremantle scored just one goal that day.

Why Freo will win:

  • Fremantle has met the Crows just once previously in round 11 and won by 39 points at Subiaco Oval.
  • Mark Harvey’s debut as Fremantle’s senior coach was in round 16, 2007 - and the  win that day also happens to be Freo’s most recent victory over Adelaide at AAMI Stadium.

The market*: Adelaide $2.94, Fremantle $1.49

The mozz: Freo should heave the hapless Crows out of the park with ease.

North Melbourne v Brisbane Lions

Why the Kangaroos will win:

  • North are playing their seventh game at Etihad Stadium for the season, while the Lions haven’t visited the venue since round 10, 2009.
  • Despite recent losses to the Lions, the Kangaroos still hold the head-to-head advantage with 21 wins to 17 and one draw.

 Why the Lions will win:

  • It’s been all the Lions in matches between these clubs recently. They have won the last two on the trot, and four of the last five, including three wins by more than five goals.
  • The Lions have dominated North Melbourne in the Saturday night timeslot, winning 10 of 15 matches.

The market*: North Melbourne $2.54, Brisbane Lions $1.64

The mozz: Lions to do what Barry should have done and give the Roos an absolute mauling.

West Coast Eagles v Geelong Cats

Why the Eagles will win:

  • West Coast may have lost their last four games against Geelong, but the club hasn’t conceded five in a row to the Cats since 2002.
  • The Eagles are a dangerous outfit on a Saturday night at Subiaco Oval, winning 28 of 45 matches played.

Why the Cats will win:

  • Geelong has won its last four clashes with West Coast, including wins by 135 and 99 points in 2008.
  • The Cats have defeated the Eagles the last two times at Subiaco Oval, and have impressive form on the road, winning 10 of their last 12 interstate matches.

The market*: West Coast Eagles $7.20, Geelong Cats $1.15

The mozz: Tipping against Geelong is generally fraught with danger.  Tipping against them when they’re playing the Eagles is just silly.

Sydney Swans v Essendon

Why the Swans will win:

  • The Swans may have lost their most recent clash with Essendon, but they haven’t lost two in a row since 2001-2002, which means Paul Roos has never lost consecutive clashes with the Bombers.
  • The Swans thrashed Essendon by 54 points in the most recent round 11 match between the sides.

Why the Bombers will win:

  • The Bombers have won their last two games at the SCG and five of their last six. In fact, they’ve lost to the Swans just once at the SCG in the last decade.
  • Essendon has won 11 of 15 clashes with the Swans played in round 11 and hold the advantage on a Sunday afternoon with nine wins to seven.

The market*: Sydney Swans $1.78, Essendon $2.26

The mozz: Upset of the week here - Bombers to take out the Swans for sure.

Hawthorn v Port Adelaide

Why the Hawks will win:

  • Hawthorn has won its last three matches, while Port has lost three in a row.
  • The Hawks will be making their seventh appearance at the MCG in 2010, while the Power haven’t played at the venue for almost 12 months.

Why the Power will win:

  • Port Adelaide has dominated Hawthorn over a long period, winning 14 of 20 games played, including the last two on the trot.
  • The Power and Hawks have met only once previously in round 11, back in 2006, when Port delivered the Hawks a 96-point drubbing at AAMI Stadium.

The market*: Hawthorn $1.46, Port Adelaide $3.15

The mozz: The power from Port might just be too solid for the up and down Hawks.

Collingwood v Western Bulldogs

Why the Magpies will win:

  • This will be the second encounter for these teams in 2010, and the Magpies emerged victorious in the round 1 clash by six goals.
  • Collingwood has met the Western Bulldogs four times in round 11 for three victories. They’ve also beaten them seven times in Sunday matches.

Why the Bulldogs will win:

  • Despite losing to Collingwood in round 1, the Bulldogs have had the better of the Pies recently, winning four of the last six matches.
  • The Bulldogs have never lost to the Magpies in a twilight match.

The market*: Collingwood $1.79, Western Bulldogs $2.24

The mozz: Pies to make mince meat of the pups from the West.


* Market prices via Betfair, correct as at 3pm AEST, Friday, June 4, 2010