WHERE AND WHEN: MCG, Saturday September 22, 5.15pm?
LAST TIME: Hawthorn 21.14 (140) d Adelaide 12.12 (84), round three, 2012 at the MCG ?
TV, RADIO AND BETTING: Click here for broadcast guide and betting
The football world has Hawthorn a near-certainty to win this preliminary final clash, and with good reason. The Hawks are the form team of the competition, winning 13 of their past 14 games and storming home against Collingwood a fortnight ago. But at Waverley, Hawthorn players and coaches are publicly talking up Adelaide's credentials, pointing to their unbeaten pre-season, their 17 home and away season wins, their dangerous tall forward duo of Taylor Walker and Kurt Tippett, and their tough, explosive midfield.
THE FOUR POINTS
HAWTHORN
1. Recent history backs the Hawks' winning hopes. Alastair Clarkson's men have won 10 straight matches against non-Victorian teams at the MCG, including the 56-point thrashing of the Crows in round three. Adelaide has lost its last five finals away from home; it's last win was over Melbourne at the MCG in 2002. The last time these two teams met in a final, at Etihad Stadium in 2007, a young Lance Franklin booted a late match-winning goal from outside 50m.
2. Hawthorn regains midfielders Jordan Lewis and Clinton Young for Saturday's clash after both missed the qualifying final win over Collingwood with injury. Brendan Whitecross goes out of the team with a ruptured ACL, and Clarkson will need to squeeze out one other unlucky player. Young's return gives the Hawks extra drive through the centre of the ground - he led the team in long kicks and inside 50s during the home and away season.
3. The Hawks had three players named in the All Australian team on Monday night - Franklin, Cyril Rioli and Grant Birchall - and Adelaide is likely to put time into all three this week. Franklin and Rioli have long been checked closely, but Birchall's influence is also gaining recognition from opponents. After averaging 24 disposals per game during the home and away season and gathering more short kicks than any other Hawk, the half-back was tagged by young Magpie Ben Sinclair in the qualifying final. He managed only 11 disposals in that game, but still exerted a strong physical presence.
4. Clarkson will need to decide which of Adelaide's All Australian midfielders to run a tag on: Patrick Dangerfield, Scott Thompson, or neither. The pair had a combined 52 disposals and 17 clearances in round three as the Crows won clearances 38-31 and contested possession 149-128. That didn't matter, because the Hawks completely controlled possession once they had it, taking 140 marks to 52. Nonetheless, Clarkson will have seen the effect Fremantle tagger Ryan Crowley had on Dangerfield's game last week, and may consider handing Liam Shiels the job.
ADELAIDE
1. Adelaide's starts against both the Sydney Swans in the qualifying final and Fremantle in the semi have been identical. Despite playing both at home, their opposition got the jump on the Crows, building significant leads. Missed opportunities have been the side's main failing early in its two finals. The Crows managed four scoring shots in each first quarter but returns of just 1.3 in both aren't enough to put scoreboard pressure on any side. Against the Hawks, Adelaide has to take every opportunity it can get.
2. The battle between Adelaide's tall forward duo and the Hawks' defence shapes as crucial. Walker is in red-hot form, having booted five goals in a powerful display against Fremantle last week. He'll likely be manned by Josh Gibson, who restricted him to just three marks and no goals in round three. Gibson picked up 30 disposals in that game, too. Tippett is not in great touch, but gave Ryan Schoenmakers some trouble in their last meeting. The big Crow took eight marks, six of them inside forward 50, kicking 3.3. Adelaide desperately needs at least one of the pair to fire on Saturday.
3. Ruckman Sam Jacobs has endured a tough couple of weeks, facing Swan Shane Mumford and Fremantle's Aaron Sandilands. He missed out on All Australian selection on Monday night and would be keen to put in the sort of performance on Saturday that would make selectors regret his omission. Jacobs has improved tenfold since he and David Hale shared the honours when these two sides last met in round three and it will be crucial he can give his midfielders first use of the ball. If he can also become a target around the ground, Adelaide could be in with a shot.
4. Bookies say the Crows don't stand a chance on Saturday and assistant coach Mark Bickley says they're greater underdogs than in the 1997 and '98 preliminary finals against the Western Bulldogs. Still, history often repeats and several commentators, including the club's dual premiership coach Malcolm Blight, admit there are parallels to be drawn to those premiership-winning campaigns.
AFL.com.au prediction: Hawthorn by 35 points
??The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL
