ESSENDON has the wood on St Kilda: three wins in a row makes it official.
The last three times the Bombers have gone in as rank underdogs and all three times they’ve taken the points.
Friday night’s 33-point win was the most convincing yet, adding to the 12-point victory in round eight and the two-point thriller to end the Saints’ unbeaten run in round 20 last year.
Over these three games, the Bombers have averaged almost 104 points per game against Ross Lyon’s famously miserly team.
As a comparison, St Kilda averaged just 63.8 points against per game in 2009 and 72.9 so far this season.
So how is Essendon undoing the Saints’ defence when other teams can’t?
Recently retired Bombers great Scott Lucas sees two main reasons.
“It’s a combination of having an excellent clearance player in Jobe Watson in the team, and getting it out to some runners who have got great leg speed that can break the lines and really spread from the stoppage,” Lucas says.
“Their ability to spread the Saints’ zone has been important. The boys took the game on and really ran hard on Friday night, which the Saints didn’t like.”
The stats support Lucas’ assessment.
The Saints are usually masters at locking down at stoppages, allowing an opposition score when conceding first possession at a stoppage only 16.2 per cent of the time on average.
In round 20 last year, Essendon scored when it won first possession at a stoppage an amazing 41 per cent of the time.
In round eight it was 23.3 per cent, and on Friday night 26.5 per cent.
On Friday, the first possession count was split 34 apiece, but the Bombers kicked 8.1 (49) from this source, outscoring the Saints in the same stat by 29 points - a major factor in the final result.
Watson’s influence in this area can’t be underestimated. His ability to not only get his hands on the ball in a contested situation, but also use it effectively, is crucial.
The Bomber captain has won first possession at a stoppage 140 times this season - second only to West Coast’s Matt Priddis.
But more telling, when he has won first possession, Essendon has scored a total 136 points directly from those stoppages* - 35 more points than any other player in the league.
“He’s so effective in that he releases runners in a very creative way,” Lucas explains.
“He puts the ball into space, allows them to run onto it, and often gives them a chance to have a shot at goal, or if the stoppage is around the midfield, releases them into the clear.”
No doubt having lightning fast runners to feed the ball to has helped Watson’s tally. For teams looking to get on top of the Saints the same way Essendon has, Lucas says this leg speed is the key.
“We saw it earlier in the year with Carlton as well - to break down the Saints is certainly easier said than done, but the significant factor in those two games has been the leg speed, breaking up the play, and moving the ball quickly," Lucas explains.
“The Saints are a very good defensive unit as a collective, so the key is to move the ball quickly so you can avoid that collective and get one-on-one contests with their defenders.”
*His stoppage possession has been the first link in an unbroken chain to goal.
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
