The Magpies have brought new meaning to the phrase "forward pressure" and their ability to force oppositions to turn the ball over has been something to watch all season.
The Saints still rely on their defensive mechanisms and zones to stop the opposition from getting the ball inside their forward 50. When they are at their best they are hard to penetrate but when sides take the game on like the Pies do, they can get through St Kilda's zone and get high inside-50 numbers.
Both sides are evenly matched in terms of statistical data: they are both in the top-four for contested footy, uncontested footy, disposals and scores from turnovers.
They also both rely on structures and individual roles for the team to be successful. If St Kilda can win the footy and use it by short kicks and control the speed of the game, this will make it hard for the Pies to pressure and force turnovers.
BACKLINE v BACKLINE
Collingwood
The Pies have brought Simon Prestigiacomo into the side and he will go straight to Nick Riewoldt as he has a good record on him. Although he has missed a fair amount of football, he is a dour defender who will get the job done with some support.
Ben Reid will go to Justin Koschitzke and one of Ben Johnson and Sharrod Wellingham will find themselves playing a role in defence throughout the game. Johnson could play as a sweeping defender coming up with St Kilda's high forwards.
Collingwood will be happy with Riewoldt getting right up the ground. They'll allow him to win the football up the ground and aim to provide support when he is inside 50 through Nick Maxwell and Alan Toovey.
If the Saints retain a six-man forward line, the Collingwood defenders will play one-on-one and get a spare player behind the footy for support. They will do this through Maxwell, Harry O'Brien and Heath Shaw, but if they can't, a winger will roll back in support.
Defensively, they need to get their match-up for Stephen Milne right. He can be a match-winner but if you don't allow him to get in behind you or around forward stoppages his job will be nullified. I would play Toovey or Johnson on him - he has had a fantastic season and this would cap his season off if he can get this job done.
St Kilda
The key match-ups won't be difficult to work out - Zac Dawson will go to Chris Dawes, leaving Jason Blake to go to Travis Cloke. I'd also use Michael Gardiner to get in front of these two so they can't lead into space to find the footy.
It gets tougher when you try to find opponents for Alan Didak, Leon Davis, Steele Sidebottom and, when forward, Scott Pendlebury. With Steven Baker coming into the side he will go straight to Didak. He is seasoned and even though he has missed a lot of football he may give the Saints a real lift.
James Gwilt will probably go to Leigh Brown initially and then take whichever mid-sized forward player comes down when he goes to the ruck.
It's likely we will see a spare defensive player at each end of the ground, with Sam Fisher playing this role for the Saints. Their strength is their defensive unit's ability to work for each other to enable Fisher, Sam Gilbert and Jason Gram to be free at different stages throughout the game.
One of this trio will press right down through midfield and, if allowed space, can cause some real headaches for the Pies with their run and drive to the forward line.
That raises the question - do both sides look at trying to negate opposition defenders in Maxwell and Fisher? Both sides will prefer to play to their recent structure and use both these players' direct opponents in transition in an endeavour to force the opposition coach to make a decision.
MIDFIELD v MIDFIELD
There is so much class here - Darren Jolly, Dane Swan, Dale Thomas, Luke Ball, Scott Pendlebury and Wellingham versus Gardiner, Lenny Hayes, Leigh Montagna, Brendon Goddard and Nick Dal Santo.
So who does Clinton Jones go to? He picked up Dane Swan in round 16 and has gone to Alan Didak previously. I'd actually get him straight to Pendlebury and instruct him to only worry about shutting him out of the game.
Collingwood aren't a big tagging side but do a team-tag on players - Wellingham, Johnson, Dayne Beams, Thomas and Pendlebury all take turns in playing different roles on different players.
That's part of the reason they have been so successful - their midfielders can play differing roles as support for defence or to push hard forward and hurt the opposition. Swan, Pendlebury and Beams are very dangerous forward of the footy and need to be watched.
The Saints, on the other hand, have Montagna, Adam Schneider and Andrew McQualter who play through the midfield and work hard forward.
The ruck contest will be a beauty. Lyon and his match committee have made the first surprise by dropping Ben McEvoy (or could he be a late inclusion?) leaving Gardiner and Darren Jolly to go head to head for 70-80 per cent of the game.
That leaves Leigh Brown and Justin Koschitzke to go head-to-head. The Pies need to be careful of Koschitzke working hard forward on Brown, however Jolly can also push hard forward. Whichever side can get some good ball movement patterns to these talls will gain an edge.
Brown has been super for the Pies. He is such a competitor and is in career-best form. When he's not in the ruck, he'll work between the arcs as support to clog up Riewoldt's space and then push forward when the Pies win the ball in their defence.
Collingwood need to really watch the Saints when they try to bring the footy back through the corridor. The Saints' runners swarm from the back half and open up space for their forwards.
They also need to have a plan in place for Goddard if he drifts back from a wing and sits behind the footy as a seventh defender. They can either let him go and back in their structure or they can round him up by sending either a wingman or their tagged player forward to make Goddard accountable.
Hayes is a clearance genius so the Pies need to squeeze him around stoppages and stop his influence in getting Montagna, Goddard and Dal Santo into the game.
FORWARDS v FORWARDS
Collingwood
Multiple goalkickers make this forward line very hard to curtail. Cloke, Brown, Dawes, Didak, Pendlebury, Swan, Thomas, Davis and Jolly offer plenty of avenues to goal and make the Pies very dangerous.
They average 19 goals per game when they win and 19 marks inside 50.
Their forward pressure has been taken to a new level. They pressure from behind and in front and really force pressure on the ball-carrier and the receiver.
Their forwards work hard defensively down the ground and then get involved in chains when they win the ball. Dawes, Brown, Cloke and even Brent Macaffer rotate deep and up the ground and provide the way in for the Pies.
St Kilda
Riewoldt obviously is the key to the Saints' success. To take control of this game he is going to need some super support from Koschitzke, Milne, Schneider, Montanga, McQualter and Robert Eddy - who will possibly play a defensive role on Maxwell.
If two or three of these players can get involved early and cause some headaches for the Collingwood defenders, it will allow Riewoldt to get off the leash. If he does they are a massive chance.
I think Gardiner will spend time deep forward to try to soak up a quality defender and allow Kosi to play more between centre half-forward and the top of the square.
The Saints need to have their pressure game in their forward half at its best. They set the benchmark in 2009, but Collingwood has taken the mantle this year, so the Saints' forward line should really be setting itself a real challenge this week to match their counterparts and provide enormous frontal and run-from-behind pressure.
An area of their game in which they lag a little is their ability to score when inside 50. They need to take every opportunity they can, or in the worst case create a stoppage and reset their zone so the Pies can't just run it out.
COACH v COACH
Mick Malthouse has been a sensational coach over a long period of time and, to me, is the best coach in the AFL.
He is very astute and a very good game-day coach who can see exactly what is going on and change the game quickly to get it back on his terms.
Malthouse has created such a good 'team' - you can see the players play for him week in, week out. He has also shown faith in his younger players to do the job. Seven players under 50 games is a terrific endorsement for his development and coaching of players.
Ross Lyon has unfinished business from last year's heartbreaking 2009 grand final and has had to deal with some unfortunate episodes this year, which he has done with class and professionalism.
He is also is a very good match-day coach, who has his side playing their roles and playing to his structure perfectly. He will need to throw a few things around if the Pies get a break and try to get the game back on his terms quickly.
UNDER THE RADAR
Darren Jolly has been a massive recruit for Collingwood and could have a very big influence on the outcome of this game.
We know both sides have some tremendous individual players, but Jolly provides his onballers with first use of the ball through his ruck work, can drift forward and kick goals and has become a fantastic ally for Maxwell with the leadership he brings.
He will provide support to block Riewoldt's space and will put his body on the line to do what's best for his teammates. He also has grand final experience and a premiership medallion, which will benefit him greatly.
HOW THE GAME WILL BE WON
Three areas of the game will be vital:
1. As silly as it sounds, the side which makes the fewest mistakes and turns the footy over least will win this grand final.
2. The side which punishes the opposition by scoring from turnovers will be on its way to a flag.
3. The team which gets the defensive part of its game on its terms will win this grand final.
Both sides deserve to be playing on the last Saturday in September, and St Kilda has experienced this day and this week 12 months ago.
Most of the Pies are yet to experience it or haven't experienced it for seven years, so will this play a part? I suspect not, as Malthouse has been there numerous times and will prepare them to deal with the big day.
Collingwood has also taken the interchange rotation to another level and uses this as a tactical weapon each week. Players come off and on like a revolving door, but each player knows exactly where he is playing and his role and this puts enormous pressure on the opposition to counteract.
Also expect the unexpected with the possibility of a late change to either or both sides.
THE VERDICT
Collingwood by 10 points
NORM SMITH MEDALLIST
Darren Jolly
Danny Daly has completed his first season as an assistant coach at Richmond after stints at North Melbourne and Collingwood.
The views in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
