WITH the split round done, it’s back into the swing of things for round 14. Among this weekend’s games are a couple of corkers that’ll no doubt have many tipsters feeling wary.

Carlton vs. Brisbane Lions
Why the Blues win:

• Carlton has historically had the better of Brisbane, winning 22 games to 16 including the most recent played in Melbourne, back in Round 2, 2009 at Etihad Stadium.
• The Blues have enjoyed success playing against all teams on a Thursday night, with four wins from seven games.

Why the Lions win:

• The Lions actually hold the advantage over Carlton at Etihad Stadium, having won on three of the four occasions the sides have met at the venue.
• The Lions have dominated Carlton under lights, winning 10 of 15 contests.

The market*: Carlton $1.26; Brisbane Lions $4.20

The Mozz: Carlton to atone for poor showings against the Kangaroos and Freo over the past couple of weeks and reaffirm their position as a genuine September contender with a big win.

Hawthorn vs. Western Bulldogs
Why the Hawks win:

• Hawthorn has met the Western Bulldogs three times previously on a Friday night, and been victorious on each occasion.
• The last time these sides met at the MCG was the 2008 Second Qualifying Final, a match Hawthorn won by 51 points. In fact, the Hawks have the edge over the Dogs at the MCG, winning five of eight games played.

Why the Bulldogs win:

• The Bulldogs have had the better of the Hawks recently, winning three of the last four and six of eight games played between the sides since 2005.
• In this same round last year, the Dogs easily accounted for the Hawks at Etihad Stadium, winning by 88 points after leading by a massive 84 points at half-time.

The market*: Hawthorn $2.36, Western Bulldogs $1.71

The Mozz: This shapes as the game of the round. The Dogs won’t go down without a fight, but if Buddy fires; the Hawks should take the points.

Fremantle vs. Port Adelaide
Why Freo win:

• Though Port Adelaide has had the better of Fremantle over a long period of time, winning 14 games to seven, recent history has seen Freo even the ledger somewhat with four wins to two since 2007.
• Fremantle won the most recent contest between the sides at Subiaco Oval and won it comfortably, getting home by 42 points in Round 19, 2009.

Why the Power win:

• These sides have met twice previously in Round 14 and the Power won comprehensively both times, by 92 points in 2001 and 84 points in 2002.
• Port Adelaide actually holds the head-to-head advantage over Freo at Subiaco Oval, winning six matches to three at the venue.

The market*: Fremantle $1.15, Port Adelaide $7.20

The Mozz: Pav and Barlow should chalk up a few Brownlow votes here. Freo easily at home.

Adelaide Crows vs. Essendon
Why the Crows win:

• Adelaide has dominated Essendon recently, winning the last four matches between the sides. Those wins include two by more than 50 points and a 96 point victory in the most recent contest, the 2009 First Elimination Final.
• Adelaide holds a clear advantage over the Bombers at AAMI Stadium, winning 11 of 15 games played plus four of the last five. Three of their last four wins over Essendon at the venue have been thrashings, by 88, 138 and 96 points respectively.

Why the Bombers win:

• Despite recent defeats, Essendon holds the historical advantage over Adelaide with 15 wins to 13.
• In a possible omen for the Bombers they have played the Crows twice previously in Round 14 and won both times, in 1992 by 44 points and 122 in 1995 at the MCG.

The market*: Adelaide $1.65, Essendon $2.46

The Mozz: Essendon have some big personnel issues and traditionally don’t fare too well against the Crows on home turf, while Adelaide (finally) found some form last weekend against the Dees. Expect that winning feeling to linger at West Lakes for another week.

Collingwood vs. West Coast Eagles
Why the Magpies win:

• Collingwood has well and truly had the wood over West Coast in recent times, winning the last three matches between the sides and four of the last five, including a record 100-point victory in 2008 and a 22-point win in the most recent clash, back in Round 9 last season.
• The Pies hold a narrow advantage over the Eagles at Etihad Stadium, with three wins to two at the venue.

Why the Eagles win:

• Historically, the Eagles hold the head-to-head advantage over Collingwood. The teams have met 36 times, resulting in 20 wins to West Coast, 15 to the Magpies and one draw.
• In the Eagles favour, they have clashed with the Magpies four times previously on a Saturday afternoon, for three wins.

The market*: Collingwood $1.09, West Coast $11.50

The Mozz: The Pies are flying, while the Eagles are crashing. Expect Mick’s men to continue on their merry way toward September with a convincing win.

Geelong Cats vs. North Melbourne
Why the Cats win:

• Geelong has had no trouble accounting for North over the past few seasons, winning the last five matches between the sides and eight of ten since 2004, including four wins by more than 10 goals.
• The last time these teams met, back in Round 8, 2009 at Skilled Stadium, the Cats romped home to the tune of 70 points.

Why the Kangaroos win:

• North Melbourne holds a narrow advantage over Geelong in clashes on a Sunday afternoon between the teams, with seven wins to six.
• Only two teams have defeated the Cats at Skilled Stadium since the start of 2007, the Kangaroos are one of them, in Round 5, 2007.

The market*: Geelong $1.19, North Melbourne $5.80

The Mozz: The Kangaroos of recent weeks have been building a strong case for a finals berth this season, but Geelong don’t lose too many games, especially when they’re on the rebound from a loss at home. Cats to get over the line with ease.

Richmond vs. Sydney Swans
Why the Tigers win:

• The last time these teams met in this round was in 2005 at the MCG - a game the Tigers won by just one point.
• Richmond and Sydney have met in this round on nine previous occasions, and the Tigers hold the slimmest advantage, with five wins to the Swans’ four.

Why the Swans win:

• The Swans have had the wood over Richmond in recent seasons, winning the last eight matches between the sides.
• The Swans thrashed the Tigers when they met earlier this season, back in Round 3 at the SCG. The final margin was 55 points, but could have been much more - at half time Richmond had managed to score just one goal and trailed by 52 points.

The market*: Richmond $2.20, Sydney Swans $1.80

The Mozz: Jumping Jack Riewoldt will prove the wildcard in what could be a danger game for the Swans, but Sydney should prove a class above the Tigers this time.

St Kilda vs. Melbourne
Why the Saints win:

• St Kilda have dominated Melbourne recently, winning the last four matches between the sides, including a 79-point win in 2008 and wins by 37 and 47 points in 2009.
• The Saints have won the last two matches between the sides at Etihad Stadium, and have a winning percentage of 75% at the venue since 2007.

Why the Demons win:

• Melbourne has the edge over St Kilda at Etihad Stadium, with three wins to two.
• The Demons have the Saints measure in Round 14, winning seven of 12 clashes between the clubs in this round, including the last in 1993 at Waverley Park by 46 points.

The market*: St Kilda $1.16, Melbourne $6.80

The Mozz: The Saints are running hot and will be too big, too strong and too good for the young and inconsistent Demons.

* Prices via Betfair as of 5pm AEST, 30 June 2010

The views in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.