WHERE AND WHEN: Etihad Stadium, Saturday July 2, 7.10pm
HEAD TO HEAD: Essendon 112 wins, Geelong 91 wins, Draws five
LAST TIME: Geelong 23.16 (154) d Essendon 12.11 (83), round 12, 2010 at Etihad Stadium
TV, RADIO AND BETTING: Click here for broadcast guide and odds
A full replay will be available on afl.com.au 12 hours after the completion of the match
FORM: Essendon: BLLLL Geelong: WWWWW
SUMMARY
Just what is going on with the Bombers? They haven't won since they beat the Brisbane Lions in round eight at the Gabba and they've fallen to 10th on the ladder after being as high as third after that win. The 65-point loss to Hawthorn on Friday night equalled five losses in a row after defeats by North Melbourne, Fremantle, Melbourne and Richmond in the weeks leading up to it.
There are many suggestions why the Bombers are in such a tailspin with a drop off in fitness, (after a heavily loaded pre-season), the breakdown of the three-tall combination, and the inconsistency in the team with Jobe Watson missing two games between rounds nine and 12 and Heath Hocking's three-game suspension across the same period all being considered.
Their mounting injury list isn't helping matters with Watson (hamstring - likely three weeks), David Myers (hamstring - unknown layoff) and Sam Lonergan (knee - season) the latest casualties to join Cale Hooker (hamstring), Jason Winderlich (knee) and Courtenay Dempsey (knee) on the sidelines. The current form of Patrick Ryder has also raised eyebrows. They still have the backing of their coach, however, with James Hird stating after the loss to the Hawks he was confident they could still bounce back from their slump.
In comparison, there isn't a cloud in the Geelong sky with the Cats quietly motoring away to an undefeated record after 14 rounds and to outright first on the ladder. They showed on Sunday in their 52-point win over Adelaide at Skilled Stadium the are no concerns about the future either with Mitch Brown, Steven Motlop, Dawson Simpson, Tom Hawkins, Shannon Byrnes, Tom Gillies and Allen Christensen replacing experienced counterparts and passing what coach Chris Scott later called a "test for our system".
While the team that took apart the Crows did much more than what was expected of it, there will be changes this week with the Cats likely to regain Jimmy Bartel (concussion) and James Kelly (ankle), Brad Ottens and Nathan Vardy, who were rested on the weekend, and Mathew Stokes and Josh Hunt from suspension.
QUESTION MARKS
Saturday night will be first time Essendon and Geelong have played each other since Mark Thomson and Brendan McCartney left the Cats and took up assistant roles under Hird. Scott says he doesn't imagine the interesting subplot will have any affect on what transpires internally or that the former Geelong duo will be able to share game-changing insight on how his side plays, but how will the players react on the field, especially after former president Frank Costa told The Age this week that trust and loyalty were stronger than ever at the club this year?
The Bombers had an awful night on Friday. They dropped their heads, looked lethargic, the forward line misfired and they allowed Hawthorn to make a mockery of any kind of defensive press they applied before they got were marginally competitive after half-time. Just how does Hird get them up this week when so many things went wrong? And what does he do with Ryder to snap him out of his slumber after backing him to remain at senior level?
Is there any way the Bombers can put together a shock win? The odds are against them; they've lost nine out of their past 10 clashes with the Cats, who are going to get back a third of their starting 18, just to add insult to injury. And where will the goals come from? The Bombers are one of the least efficient teams for converting inside 50s into goals, which could prove costly against Geelong's talented defenders.
PREDICTION
Geelong by 59 points.
TOYOTA AFL DREAM TEAM WATCH
One of the big questions this week for coaches will be whether to hang on to Watson any longer. He's missed two games through injury and will be out for at least three now. He's dropped from his initial value of $394,100 to $340,300, but with Essendon scheduled for a bye in round 24, if you think you're going to play off in the big one, it might be time to take that financial hit and look elsewhere.
If you're trading Watson, why not have a look at Paul Chapman? Having started the season at a huge $472,200, he was always going to come off significantly even with nice scores. His average has been 99 for the past three rounds and he has a good price tag of $365,700 - along with the bonus of his hybrid status - although he will be unavailable for DT semi-final weekend owing to the Cats' second bye.
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The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
