WHERE AND WHEN: MCG, Sunday August 19, 4.40pm
LAST TIME: Hawthorn 16.10 (106) d Gold Coast 14.13 (97), round 24, 2011 at Metricon Stadium
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Gold Coast celebrated its second win of the season last week, beating Greater Western Sydney in what was its first ever victory at Metricon Stadium. But there's little chance of back-to-back success for Guy McKenna's men in this twilight clash with a rampaging Hawthorn.
THE FOUR POINTS
Hawthorn
1. The Hawks should regain one crowd-pulling superstar for this match, but will lose another. Lance Franklin appears to have overcome his hamstring problem after five weeks out, but Cyril Rioli has suffered a shoulder injury and will miss at least a fortnight. As a result of his layoff, Franklin now trails leader Matthew Pavlich by six goals in the Coleman Medal race, but will fancy himself to put a dent in that margin against the Suns.
2. Xavier Ellis has had a wretched run with injury, but - touch wood - fitness and timing may finally be aligning in his favour. The 24-year-old played his first senior game of the season in Sunday's 74-point win over Port Adelaide after calf and then knee issues. He wasted no time offering a reminder of what he can offer Hawthorn's finals campaign, collecting 17 disposals and booting two goals.
3. Ruckmen David Hale and Max Bailey played together against the Power, but with fellow big men Jarryd Roughead and Franklin to return, the time may have come to choose one or the other. Bailey is a better tap ruckman, but Hale is more versatile. It's one of many difficult selection decisions facing Alastair Clarkson in the run to September.
4. The match is the Hawks' annual 'Kokoda game', which will see them wearing their camouflage jumper, honouring the Diggers who served Australia at war and raising funds for the Kokoda Track Foundation. Since Clarkson assumed leadership at the end of 2004, Hawthorn has made four trips to the Kokoda Track, with all new players required to complete the trek as part of their induction.
Gold Coast
1. The Suns' injury crisis has hit critical point with a staggering 18 players on the injury list this week. David Swallow (knee), Liam Patrick (hamstring) and Jackson Allen (groin) added to Gold Coast's woes after last week's win over the Giants, leaving barely enough fit players to pick a team from. Coach McKenna has preached "opportunity" for most of his two years in the job, and never has there been a greater example for his young players than this Sunday.
2. Again last week Gold Coast showed it doesn't need a superhuman game from captain Gary Ablett to be competitive. That may be different against Hawthorn, but against the Giants Ablett had 'just' 23 disposals and two goals. Whether or not it's a statistical anomaly, the more the skipper gets the ball, the more his team has struggled. Six times he has gathered more than 40 touches, and on just two of those occasions have the Suns been within 10 goals of their opponent.
3. This will be the Suns' second trip to the home of football in three weeks. Against Melbourne a fortnight ago they were blown off the park with six unanswered goals in the first quarter before losing by 42 points. On their only other trip to the ground in 2012, Collingwood ran away in the second half to record a 97-point win. The more exposure the Suns get to the MCG, the better it will be for their development in coming years.
4. Aaron Hall and Brandon Matera may have shown Guy McKenna the forward line blueprint for his team. The two terriers were superb against the Giants and as long as they're fit and healthy, look a likely combination. Hall had 15 disposals, seven tackles and kicked 3.2, while Matera continued his impressive late season form surge. He came up the ground more at times and finished with 22 touches and 2.1.
AFL.com.au prediction: Hawthorn by 80 points
The views in this story are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL
