WHERE AND WHEN: MCG, Saturday August 15, 1.45pm
LAST TIME: Carlton 11.13 (79) defeated by Essendon 15.19 (109) round 4, 2012 at the MCG
TV, RADIO AND BETTING: Click here for broadcast guide and odds
 
Despite both teams struggling with injuries throughout the season, whichever wins this contest between the old rivals will hold out hope of securing a finals position. The Bombers let slip a golden opportunity to cement their place in the top eight last week with a four-goal defeat at the hands of North Melbourne - their fourth straight defeat. Meanwhile, the Blues have regained some key players and will be keen for redemption after being embarrassed by the Bombers in round four.

THE FOUR POINTS
ESSENDON
1. The Bombers exposed the Blues earlier in the year with extra physicality and strength around the ball, closing down Carlton's run and spread from the contest. That intensity around the contest has been mostly missing in Essendon's form slump in the last six weeks, apart from a contested style against the Crows in round 19. If they can recapture that willingness to exert pressure on the Blues, the Bombers will be a step closer to getting back on the winners' list.

2. Who helps Jobe? The Essendon captain has been a lone hand in many of the Bombers' losses of late, and was again brilliant in defeat last weekend. Watson gathered 32 disposals against the Kangaroos, laid seven tackles and kicked an important goal before three-quarter time. But too much is being left to Watson. At least Brent Stanton will return against the Blues after two weeks out with a hamstring injury, but other Bombers need to step up and help their inspirational skipper.

3. Tom Bellchambers was excellent in the corresponding game with Carlton in round four, winning 28 hit-outs in a dominant display when the Blues' rucks were at the top of their game. He was also strong in last week's defeat to the Kangaroos, taking the honours over North's Todd Goldstein. Bellchambers, who rucked almost all game, had 48 hit-outs and 14 disposals. If he can get on top this week, and create some chemistry with his midfield, the Bombers should be able to get the advantage.

4. Another element of its game Essendon must improve if it stands a chance to clinch a finals spot is its disposal efficiency. In the first nine rounds, during which the Bombers won eight games, they were one of the best kicking teams in the competition. But they have fallen away in recent weeks, running at 64 per cent efficiency last week against the Kangaroos. They can't afford to be as sloppy this time around.

CARLTON
1. Carlton skipper Chris Judd will return against the Bombers after his four-week suspension for a 'chicken wing' tackle on North's Leigh Adams. The Blues went 3-1 in his absence to remain a finals chance with three games remaining. All reports are that Judd is ready to burst back onto the scene, but his teammates, who did well to take up the slack in his absence, must maintain that intensity with him back in the side.

2. Eddie Betts was subbed off at three-quarter time of last week's win against the Brisbane Lions after copping a knock to a calf. Brett Ratten was confident he would be right to play after the match, but the club's medical staff will watch him closely this week. Carlton can ill afford to lose its leading goalkicker ahead of the match that will determine its finals fate.

3. The Blues were on top of the world when these teams met back in round four, but Essendon's 30-point win that day proved disastrous for Carlton. Chris Yarran suffered a turf toe injury that has dogged him for most of the season and Andrew Carrazzo suffered a serious shoulder injury that sidelined him for seven weeks. The Blues were none too pleased with the Bombers' physical approach in that match, which should make for an interesting opening few minutes.

4. Things are starting to come together in attack for Carlton with the returns of Jarrad Waite, Andrew Walker and Mitch Robinson, but defence remains a concern as long as Michael Jamison (hamstring) remains unavailable. Simon White stood up in just his second game of the season to do a good job on Jonathan Brown last week. The Blues will need another big game from him along with solid contributions from youngsters Matthew Watson and Andrew McInnes.

AFL.com.au prediction: Carlton by six points.

The views in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of the AFL or its clubs