WITH LITTLE more than three weeks remaining until the 2008 trade period, former Richmond director of football Greg Miller doesn't forecast an abundance of activity.
That's despite Wednesday's confirmation that Fremantle ruckman Robert Warnock would return to Victoria, leaving his existing club to seek a swap – most likely with Carlton, but with Richmond and Melbourne also in the mix.
Melbourne made a presentation to Warnock last month, which angered Fremantle coach Mark Harvey but also indicated those behind-the-scenes discussions, and possibly others, could generate a busy exchange week.
However, Miller believes that the promise of talent in the coming NAB AFL Draft will encourage clubs to stick with their selections and youth policies.
So too will the knowledge that new franchise Gold Coast will receive nine first round draft picks in 2010.
"Two years ago there was very few because it was a super draft and clubs just didn't want to trade," Miller told Melbourne radio station SEN on Saturday.
"This year I wouldn't anticipate too many trades given. As we all know, this is the last of the uncompromised drafts. Clubs will want to build their list with younger players as best they can."
Miller, who joined Richmond in 2002 but lost his job in July, provided an interesting insight into the inner workings of football departments with a trade period looming.
"By this time of the year, club list managers and match committees have got together and they've decided where they're deficient on their list," he said.
"And they'll say, 'Through the national draft, we're not sure what we're going to get. With choices up the ladder, we don't know what choice we're going to get', so they target a player.
"They also target clubs at this time of year. They see a club that's perhaps in some sort of disarray and they realise a trade can be done with that club, so they then speak to the player, try and win his confidence and take it from there.
"[Or] clubs will target players that are just off the fringe that have a lot more to give that are hamstrung by the guys on their senior list."
With ever-growing speculation about Eagle Daniel Kerr's desire to find a new club, Miller suggested West Coast may make the most of the strong draft – should it lose its star midfielder.
"I think Daniel Kerr's a great example of what's happening in the trade at the moment," he said. "In 12 months' time, when he comes out of contract, the Eagles lose a bit of leverage.
"They're in a trade situation where the choices won't be worth as much ... they're looking at it now saying this is a year we can maximise our opportunity, probably the last time for five or six years. And they, rightfully, will ask for two draft choices.
"Kerr is worth those two choices in the first round that they seek and, if a club wants him enough, they'll have to give their own and find another one."
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Trade week runs from October 6-10, 2008. Please note, no trades are official until paperwork has been accepted by the AFL and formally recognised after 2pm on Friday, October 10. More trade talk.
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