Very few people believed the Cats' winning run might come to an end against Essendon at Etihad Stadium on Saturday night (the pre-game odds were Geelong $1.05, Essendon $7.00).
After all, the Bombers went into the game having lost their past five matches; they had also lost their skipper and best midfielder Jobe Watson to injury; and they hadn't beaten Geelong since round 18, 2005.
The Cats, in contrast, had won 13 consecutive matches. And having fielded a young team in its thumping win over Adelaide in round 14, they had strengthened their side by bringing back big guns Jimmy Bartel, James Kelly, Mathew Stokes, Brad Ottens and Josh Hunt.
But football can be a funny game, and for former Geelong coach Mark Thompson, who left the Cats to join Essendon in acrimonious circumstances late last year, it was downright hilarious on this occasion.
Now an assistant coach under James Hird, Thompson was expected to be delivered a blunt message by the all-conquering team he built and led to premierships in 2007 and '09.
Yet the outcome could not have been more different, as Essendon prevailed by four points in a superb game that ended in one of the biggest upsets of the season.
There were many fine moments for the Bombers during their 18.7 (115) to 16.15 (111) triumph, in which Angus Monfries (three goals), Heath Hocking (25 disposals and 13 tackles) and Paddy Ryder (15 possessions and 24 hit-outs) led the way.
None were better than when Ryder grabbed the ball from a boundary throw-in mid-way through the third quarter and snapped a brilliant left-foot goal, which put his team 27 points up.
Ryder, like most of his teammates, has struggled for form during the past two months. But he walked tall against the Cats.
Essendon had previously lost a club-record six consecutive matches against Geelong by an average of 60 points.
But to the delight of the red and black army's many members, who roared themselves hoarse right through their team's extraordinary victory, that's now history.
What the coaches said
James Hird: "To be able to stay in the game and in the moment was really important. It's something we didn't do last week against Hawthorn. To hold on when they came back at us … shows a little bit of a sign of maturity. Tonight was a really good sign of where we're going as a footy club, but we've still got a lot of work to do."
Chris Scott: "I watched them [Essendon] play last week and … the intensity they brought this week was completely different to last week and we were a little bit off. In today's footy, that's enough. I'm not sure whether you believe me, but I reckon there's a finer line (between the teams) than you guys think."
Influential players
Essendon midfielder Jake Melksham did a brilliant job in the middle of the ground, amassing 29 posssessions, 12 of which were contested. Melksham also won eight clearances and laid seven tackles. Michael Hurley was another great contributor for the Bombers. Usually a forward, Hurley lined up at full-back on James Podsiadly and kept the big Cat goalless.
Paul Chapman was Geelong's best player. He had 29 touches (14 contested), laid six tackles, won five clearances and kicked two goals. James Kelly was another player who did plenty of hard stuff. He laid 13 of the Cats' 92 tackles (Essendon had 74).
Magic moments
Super-talented Geelong youngster Allen Christensen opened the scoring in the second minute of the game when he booted a brilliant running goal from near the boundary. Christensen was soon in the action again, winning a free kick for holding the ball against Angus Monfries. The 20-year-old received the ball on the 50m line and tried to pass it to teammate Daniel Menzel, who was deep in attack. But the ball evaded Menzel and his opponent, bounced on the goal-line and dribbled through for a goal.
Stats that may or may not matter
There were a number of statistical anomalies in this game. Essendon had 410 possessions to Geelong's 298, yet the Bombers managed only 44 inside-50s to the Cats' 59. Geelong's ratio of five possessions per inside-50 was extremely low by today's standards.
Dr Doplenty
Essendon's medical guru, Dr Bruce Reid, has become a legend at the club since arriving at Windy Hill with former coach Kevin Sheedy in 1981. On Saturday night, Dr Reid celebrated his 700th match as the Bombers' medical officer. He has never missed a game in his time working for the club.
Bomber watch
Paying homage to the Cats' battle against the club that now employs their former coach Mark Thompson, the Geelong cheersquad sticky-taped the following words to its banner:
Our BELIEF is strong
When
Our HEARTS belong
Dream Team highlight
Essendon: Midfielders Heath Hocking (current price $298,600) and Ben Howlett ($308,000) both topped the Dream Team scores for their team with 119 points, while Dyson Heppell continued his brilliant season by amassing another 100 points.
Geelong: Star midfielder Paul Chapman ($365,700) earned a game-high 128 points.
Next four
Essendon: The Bombers host Richmond next Saturday night at the MCG, before they head to Adelaide for a Friday night clash with the Crows. They play Carlton in round 18 at the MCG and Collingwood a week later at the same venue.
Geelong: The Cats face a tough mission next Friday night when they take on the Eagles at Patersons Stadium. In round 17 they're on the road again, this time to Brisbane where they'll play the Lions. Geelong plays Richmond at Etihad Stadium in round 18 and hosts Melbourne at Skilled Stadium a week later.
First quarter
Geelong kicked three goals before most of the 43,000-strong had found their seats. Allen Christensen had two of those, whilethe ever-dangerous Steve Johnson was also busy. Then, just as it looked 'how far Geelong?', Essendon hit back with the last four goals of the quarter. Angus Monfries (two goals) was everywhere and Andrew Welsh, lining up at full-forward against Geelong champion Matthew Scarlett, was making his presence felt.
Second quarter
The Bombers continued their dominance, kicking three of the first four goals of the term to skip out to a 23-point lead entering time-on. Just as it appeared everything was going against the Cats - Steve Johnson left the field with a hand injury and Daniel Menzel limped off as the Bombers made their charge - the tide began to turn. Johnson and Menzel reappeared as skipper Cameron Ling kicked a badly needed goal late in the term to help Geelong drag the margin back to under three goals. The balance was further tipped the Cats' way when Bomber veteran Andrew Welsh left the field with a left hamstring injury late in the quarter. He had kicked two goals before being replaced by substitute Travis Colyer.
Third quarter
Essendon had the best start possible, Alwyn Davey converting within seconds of the opening. Paddy Ryder received reward for a stronger showing this week, snapping a goal from a ball-up. Before long the Bombers had pushed out to a game-high 33-point lead. But, as expected, the Cats weren't done with. They whittled the margin back to six points via the energetic Paul Chapman and, with Essendon's substitute Travis Colyer failing to emerge from the rooms after rolling an ankle, it looked like the Geelong machine was crunching into gear. But the busy Monfries responded and a further goal to Kyle Reimers pushed the gap back out to three goals at the last change.
Fourth quarter
As they did after half time, Essendon kicked the first of the quarter to settle the jitters. Momentum see-sawed through the ensuing 20 minutes until the Bombers eased out to a 20-point lead well into time-on. The match appeared all but over but, as we have seen so often in 2011, the Cats refused to yield. They carved the margin back to four points with two minutes to play. When Monfries stretched that to 10 it looked to be game over for the Cats. Johnson's third of the quarter was a further twist in an absorbing clash but it ultimately proved the last.
Essendon 4.3 8.4 13.5 18.7 (115)
Geelong 3.3 5.7 9.12 16.15 (111)
GOALS
Essendon: Monfries 3, Colyer, Crameri, Welsh 2, Davey, Heppell, Hille, Howlett, Ryder, Jetta, Reimers, Zaharakis, Melksham
Geelong: Johnson 3, Duncan, Chapman, Christensen 2, Kelly, King, Motlop, Ottens, Stokes, Vardy, Wojcinski
BEST
Essendon: Hocking, Melksham, Heppell, Ryder, Howlett, Monfries, Hurley, Hardingham
Geelong: Chapman, Enright, Ling, Bartel, Johnson, Kelly, Ottens
INJURIES
Essendon: Welsh (hamstring), Colyer (ankle)
Geelong: Brown (shoulder)
SUBSTITUTES
Essendon: Welsh replaced by Colyer during the second quarter
Geelong: Lonergan replaced by Gillies during the third quarter
Reports: Nil
Umpires: Kennedy, Margetts, Jennings
Official crowd: 43,806 at Etihad Stadium
