The Western Bulldogs, who the Lions accounted for in round 20 at the Gabba, will entertain the Sydney Swans in Friday night’s second semi-final at the MCG, while St Kilda – beaten by the Lions in round nine – will do battle with Collingwood who the Lions accounted for way back in round two.
The winner of the Saints-Magpies clash will meet Hawthorn in a preliminary final, while either the Dogs or the Swans will play Geelong for a grand final spot.
Second semi-final: Western Bulldogs (3rd after home-and-away season) v Sydney Swans (6th), MCG, Friday 7.50pm.
TAB Sportsbet market: Western Bulldogs $1.72, Sydney Swans $2.05
Head to head: Round seven, Bulldogs by 18 points; Round 18 Bulldogs by 16 points.
Match-up to watch:
Ryan O’Keefe (Swans) v Dale Morris (Bulldogs) – fresh off trying to curtail Buddy Franklin, Morris looms as the Bulldog most likely to get the job on O’Keefe. It’s imperative the Dogs get this match-up right, as the damaging half-forward provides a key link between the Swans’ Brett Kirk-led midfield and Barry Hall inside the forward 50m. O’Keefe had only 13 possessions in last week’s win over North Melbourne but took nine marks in slippery conditions and kicked a pair of goals.
The breakdown:
The Bulldogs, having lost only one of their first 15 games, have now won just two of the last eight. It’s not a good statistic and their performance against Hawthorn last week, after a relatively bright start, wouldn’t have given fans too much cause for optimism. It wasn’t that long ago the Swans were struggling but they’ve looked a much-improved outfit during the last fortnight. Could the Swans’ significant finals experience prove decisive?
Prediction:
Based on previous clashes this year, this looks likely to be a close one. The Swans’ recent form is better – Paul Roos’ side by a couple of goals.
First semi-final: St Kilda (4th) v Collingwood (8th), MCG, Saturday 7.30pm.
TAB Sportsbet market: St Kilda $2.25, Collingwood $1.60
Head to head: Round eight, Collingwood by nine points; Round 19, Collingwood by 14 points.
Match-up to watch:
Nick Riewoldt (St Kilda) v Nick Maxwell (Collingwood) – last week Maxwell manned up in the midfield on Adelaide star Scott Thompson, this weekend he could well find himself standing gun Saints forward Riewoldt. Riewoldt will be desperate to bounce back form a disappointing outing against Geelong that mirrored the performance of his team. A potentially pivotal match-up.
The breakdown:
Interesting to note that the Pies are 2-0 against the Saints this year. Collingwood skipper Scott Burns is a big inclusion, but St Kilda has a key call-up of its own in the shape of tough midfielder Luke Ball. The Saints have also named former Lions AFL Shop employee David Armitage for his first final. If it is to progress to a preliminary final, St Kilda sorely needs more out of its key forwards Riewoldt and Justin Koschitzke.
Prediction:
Another tough one to call. The Pies have a strange habit of producing when underdogs and then falling over when heavily favoured. However, they do have the runs on the board this year against St Kilda – Collingwood in a close one.
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
