Head to head: Geelong 18 wins, Fremantle six wins
Last time: Fremantle 18.17 (125) d Geelong 17.16 (118), round three, 2010 at Subiaco
MISSING IN ACTION
Geelong
Mitch Brown (shoulder) - season
Max Rooke (knee) - 1 week
Jesse Stringer (hip) - season
Adam Varcoe (knee) - season
Fremantle
Hayden Ballantyne (foot) - season
Michael Barlow (leg) - season
Tim Ruffles (knee) - season
Chris Tarrant (knee) - 1 week
FORM
Geelong: LWWWL
Fremantle: LLLWW
SUMMARY
This shapes as a very one-sided affair, especially given some of the Fremantle players have never run out on the MCG before, let alone in a final. But before we write off Freo completely, it’s worth considering they were super-impressive in ending Hawthorn’s premiership hopes last weekend. It must be remembered that they actually beat the Cats when the teams last met back in round three.
That victory, in which Matthew Pavlich kicked five goals and young-gun Anthony Morabito ran riot, was the result that set Fremantle on its course towards the top eight. Unfortunately for Mark Harvey’s emerging team, this weekend it runs into a Geelong side that is desperate to atone for its qualifying final defeat at the hands of St Kilda. The burning desire to make up for that loss, along with the prospect of another preliminary final meeting with Collingwood, will have the reigning premier seriously fired up.PLAYER TO WATCH
Joel Selwood played one of his worst games for Geelong last weekend. He was held to only four possessions in the first half, and this certainly contributed to the Cats’ slow start. However, Selwood was devastated with his performance and he’ll play like a man possessed on Friday night.
Fremantle’s hopes hinge on the fitness of ruckman Aaron Sandilands. The 211cm giant hurt his knee in Freo’s elimination final win and he failed to train earlier in the week. Mark Harvey has guaranteed Sandilands will play, but it’s unclear how much impact he’ll be able to have.
QUESTION MARKS
Could the Cats become just the third top-four team to go out of the finals in straight sets under the current system?
Do the Cats have a tagger who can stop Stephen Hill? The Freo youngster was brilliant against the Hawks and could expose the lack of pace in the Geelong line-up.
Will Matthew Pavlich re-signing inspire his teammates? It was rumoured that Pavlich was being targeted by the Gold Coast, but he’s now agreed to be a Freo player for life.
WHO WILL WIN AND WHY
It is just about impossible to imagine a team with so little September experience trumping one that has so much. To illustrate the point, Fremantle has played only five finals in club history. Compare that to the Cats, who have played in 10 finals since 2007. Geelong has far too much talent and class to bow out at this early stage.
PREDICTION
Geelong by 57 points
Chat with host Adam McNicol and other fans in the AFL Match Centre on afl.com.au from 7.15pm Friday night or join the conversation on Twitter: #aflcatsfreo
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
