Brownlows are a bit like the premier team and the Melbourne Cup winner.
Most of us sports nuts can name the winners back for a few decades.
The prestige of the status of the Brownlow is undeniable.
Who will win tonight?
No expert knowledge here: (1) none of us see every game; (2) we are trying to judge how the umpires will vote.
The only Brownlow guide we have are the votes given in the various media awards, the published stats or the games we have seen, which is probably less than half of the 176 games played.
It is this information that provides the favourites.
It's worth noting that the three umpires do not consult any stats before coming to a consented decision on their three-two-one.
This is a good principle, because it means that those are given by what they see, rather than what they read.
Unfortunately, stats numbers do affect the way we judge best players.
So not having disposal totals and goal tallies means that the 40-possession or six-goal game may not have the same impact with umpires as it does with media observers, who have the stats sheet at their fingertips.
It is this information that decides the favourites: Gary Ablett, Dane Swan, Chris Judd etc.
Only a theory, but I don't think the quick get-and-give handball grabs the umpires attention.
On the other hand, being close to the action, they seem to reward the player who extricates the footy from the congestion.
Maybe this is why Simon Black has always been a major vote-winner and why Joel Selwood should poll well.
Carrying the footy into space and kicking it accurately also seems to catch the umpires' attention – Adam Cooney last year, Adam Goodes, Nick Dal Santo, Ablett, Swan and Judd all excel in this part of the game.
If I had to make a decision, I'd stick with Ablett.
Whoever wins tonight will be worthy of the honour that it bestows.
However, it will not change my opinion one iota that the player of the year has been St Kilda's inspirational captain Nick Riewoldt, closely followed by his Lions counterpart Jonathan Brown.
This pair of power forwards has performed magnificently and consistently in the toughest spot on the field. Neither is high in Brownlow calculations, but Riewoldt and Brown have been the most influential, valuable and irreplaceable performers to have graced the field this season.
Follow the Brownlow here.
