ESSENDON'S big win over the Western Bulldogs ended the Dogs' chances of finals football and virtually ensured the Bombers will make the eight. But is there a twist in the tail?

The Dogs and Demons are out of the race, and Fremantle and North Melbourne are barely hanging on, so the most likely result is a shuffling of the deck among the eight teams now in the top half of the ladder.

The Sydney Swans' surprise loss to Richmond has opened the door - just a little - for Freo and the Kangaroos, but it's a pretty slim crack through which no team is likely to squirm.

Collingwood: 1st - played, 19, won 18, lost one. Percentage 182.79

To come: Brisbane Lions (MCG), Fremantle (Patersons Stadium), Geelong (MCG)

The Magpies will finish on top, but the round 24 clash with the Cats is full of intrigue. Is it better for Collingwood to lose a match before the finals? Would 15 wins in a row be a burden or a blessing entering September's business end? Geelong was the only team to beat them this season, and surely two wins over their main rivals would be a massive psychological advantage.

Geelong: 2nd - Played 20, won 18, lost two. Percentage 157.67

To come: Bye, Sydney Swans (Skilled Stadium) Collingwood (MGC)

Despite a scare against Adelaide, the Swans at 'fortress' Skilled Stadium after the bye looms as another big win. And then comes the clash with the Pies. Expect the Cats to face the Hawks in the first round of the finals.

Hawthorn: 3rd - Played 19, won 15, lost four. Percentage 146.58

To come: Carlton (Etihad Stadium), Western Bulldogs (MCG), Gold Coast (Metricon Stadium)

Next week is a big one, and a loss to the Blues would put the Hawks' top-four finish in some jeopardy, but with a game in hand and two almost certain wins to come, they won't lose the double chance. It's been a remarkable effort from a team hit so hard by injury.

Carlton: 4th - Played 20, won 14, lost five, drawn one. Percentage 136.26

To come: Hawthorn (Etihad Stadium), Bye, St Kilda (MCG)

Beat Hawthorn and the Blues have a real prospect of retaining their top-four status, but the Eagles' soft draw may see them come over the top. The bye may be coming at a good time in terms of freshening up, but it's not ideal when the double chance is at stake.

West Coast: 5th - Played 19, won 14, lost five. Percentage 123.89

To come: Essendon (Patersons Stadium), Brisbane Lions (Gabba), Adelaide (Patersons Stadium)

The Bombers represent a challenge, but the Eagles will be solid favourites to win that and their other two final matches. The downside of finishing fourth will be a trip to Melbourne to face the Magpies, but if they lost they would then host a final the following week against the winner of the clash between fifth and eighth.

St Kilda: 6th - Played 19, won 10, lost eight, drawn one. Percentage 109.88

To come: Sydney Swans (ANZ Stadium), North Melbourne (Etihad Stadium), Carlton (MCG)

The Saints have a reasonably tough ride but will hang on with one more win. They have a better percentage than the Swans and Essendon, which surely will be enough to get them across the line if things get tight.

Essendon: 7th - Played 20, won 10, lost nine, drawn one. Percentage 102.54

To come: West Coast (Patersons Stadium), Port Adelaide (Etihad Stadium), Bye

A likely loss in Perth is balanced by a likely percentage booster against the pitiful Power, which means the Bombers are strong favourites to hang on in the eight. Fremantle meets North next week, meaning one of the two challengers will probably pick up a match on the Dons - but the loser will fall by the wayside. 

Sydney Swans: 7th - Played 18, won nine, lost nine, drawn one. Percentage 105.42

To come: St Kilda (ANZ Stadium), Geelong (Skilled Stadium), Brisbane Lions (SCG)

Losses to Essendon and Richmond have the Swans looking a little vulnerable in eighth, especially with two very tough assignments facing them. The clash with the Saints is now a critical one, although a win over the Lions would probably be enough for them to fall into the finals with just 10-and-a-half wins, as Essendon managed in 2009. The round-one draw with Melbourne may be the saving of the Swans.

Fremantle: 9th - Played 19, won nine, lost 10. Percentage 92.10

To come: North Melbourne (Etihad Stadium), Collingwood (Patersons Stadium), Western Bulldogs (Etihad Stadium)

The Swans' shock loss to the Tigers means that Freo might sneak into the finals with one more win if the Swans don't win another match. But two games on the road, given their awful record in Melbourne, and a home match against the Magpies are surely too much of a task, given that the Swans are likely to beat the Lions at home.

North Melbourne: 10th - Played 19, won eight, lost 11. Percentage 98.79

To come: Fremantle (Etihad Stadium), St Kilda (Etihad Stadium), Richmond (Etihad Stadium)

Next Saturday night is a must-win. In fact, all three are must-wins, and the Roos have to hope that the Swans lose two of their remaining three matches (against St Kilda, West Coast and the Brisbane Lions) or that Essendon somehow contrives to lose to Port Adelaide.

The views in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of the AFL or its clubs