Head to head: Sydney Swans 77 wins, North Melbourne 71 wins, one draw
Last time: Sydney Swans 14.16 (100) d North Melbourne 8.12 (60), round four, 2010 at Etihad Stadium
MISSING IN ACTION
Sydney Swans
Craig Bird (foot) - 2-3 weeks
Craig Bolton (achilles) - 3-4 weeks
Daniel Bradshaw (hamstring) - 2-3 weeks
Matt O’Dwyer (shoulder) - 1-2 weeks
Jake Orreal (back) - season
Henry Playfair (back) - indefinite
Gary Rohan (ankle) - 1-2 weeks
Mark Seaby (ankle) - 3-4 weeks
North Melbourne
Liam Anthony (shoulder) - 4-5 weeks
Aaron Black (hip) - indefinite
Majak Daw (knee) - 3 weeks
Nathan Grima (ankle) - test
Ayden Kennedy (foot) - test
Drew Petrie (foot) - test
Ben Ross (hip/groin) - indefinite
Jack Ziebell (leg) - 6-12 weeks
FORM
Sydney Swans: LWWLL
North Melbourne: LWWWL
SUMMARY
Arguably one of the most important matches of the round, with the winner set to gain a crucial advantage in the race for a finals berth. Both sides have a 7-7 record after 14 rounds, with the Swans holding eighth place by virtue of their superior percentage.
However, the similarities between the two teams end with their respective win-loss ratios. The Swans have been on a steady downward trend since topping the ladder after round six and their last-quarter capitulation to Richmond last weekend, after holding a 33-point lead late in the third quarter, was the lowest point of their campaign to date.
Meanwhile, North Melbourne has been one of 2010's steady improvers after copping some early drubbings from heavyweights St Kilda, Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs. Three wins from the past four matches and a five-goal loss to Geelong is a decent formline, with the Roos' Friday night triumph over Carlton in round 13 a great way to showcase their development.
PLAYER TO WATCH
Ben McGlynn might be one of the smallest Swans, but his contribution since joining the club over summer has been immense. Despite a seven-week layoff with a quad strain, McGlynn has slotted back into his half-forward role with aplomb. The Swans' tall forwards have struggled to produce their best in recent weeks but the former Hawk has been a constant source of goal assists, while bobbing up for one or two majors of his own.
Ruckman Todd Goldstein looms as a key player for North with his ability to rack up possessions and take a mark in attack. With Hamish McIntosh set to battle Shane Mumford, Goldstein looks set to spend some time opposed to the inexperienced Mike Pyke and he should be able to exploit the Canadian around the ground. Twenty-two touches, 10 hit-outs and a goal against Geelong showed his undoubted ability.
QUESTION MARKS
How will the Swans recover from the disappointment of coughing up a five-goal lead to Richmond? Defender Tadhg Kennelly conceded the team's mental approach had been dented by the round-13 loss to Collingwood and the loss to the Tigers is unlikely to have helped matters.
Can the young North midfield match it with the Swans' hardened bodies at the stoppages? Ryan Bastinac and Ben Cunnington have been tremendous to date in 2010, but the long season tends to take a toll on young players. If that pair, along with the likes of Leigh Adams, can make a contribution alongside Daniel Wells, Brent Harvey and Brady Rawlings, the Roos will be a show.
WHO WILL WIN AND WHY
The Swans had Richmond's measure for three quarters last week and that loss has cut them deeply. If they can maintain their intensity for the full 120 minutes at their home ground against North Melbourne, it's hard to see the visitors returning to Melbourne with the four points. As long as Mumford and Pyke can nullify McIntosh and Goldstein in the ruck, the Swans should win a close one.
PREDICTION
Sydney Swans by seven points
Chat with host Paul Johnson and other fans in the AFL Match Centre on afl.com.au from 12.40pm Sunday or join the conversation on Twitter: #aflswanskangas.
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
