MATCH SUMMARY
Despite having wounded stars, either playing or not playing, the Bulldogs will gain great belief from their semi-final win over the Swans. Their effort to overcome a five-goal deficit highlighted a strong desire within the group.

Tactically, the Bulldogs match up well with St Kilda. The 2009 preliminary final between the two clubs was a great game, and despite having 17 more inside 50s, the Dogs went down by seven points. Their only meeting this year was another terrific contest, with a Sam Fisher stoppage goal getting the Saints up in the dying seconds.

St Kilda will look to force more contests in general play, minimising any up-tempo rebound of the Dogs. One of the Bulldogs' main KPIs is scores from turnovers, so the Saints' transitional pressure on the ball-carrier, and importantly any receivers, will limit the impact of the Dogs' preferred fast-possession attack.

The Bulldogs finished the year behind only Geelong for defensive-50 score launches, with St Kilda having the best defensive record. So with a strong reliance on Barry Hall, the Doggies might find it hard to score against the Saints' supportive defence structure.

BACKLINE v BACKLINE
Western Bulldogs
If Dale Morris plays, he will be an important cog in restricting Nick Riewoldt. However, after missing three games and with limited running conditioning, he will need relief to avoid blowing up against the workload of the key Saint. With either Brian Lake or Tom Williams going to Justin Koschitzke, the other may be without a suitable match-up until Ben McEvoy goes forward.

The line-breaking run of Harbrow found form in the semi-final, and he proved pivotal in the Dogs' rivalry round clash with the Saints earlier in the year, amassing 36 possessions. When Harbrow defends, bumps and tackles, before rewarding the team with his explosive offensive game, he is an enjoyable player to watch.

St Kilda
St Kilda likes to support its defenders with an extra number, and with Hall the best player in the competition for marks on the lead, with over 70 per cent of his goals from marks, the drop-off to protect his leading space will be crucial.

Fisher played well on Hall in their round six meeting, but I would expect the job to go to Zac Dawson or Jason Blake, enabling Fisher to support and rebound.

MIDFIELD v MIDFIELD
Western Bulldogs
Having the most kicks for the year and third most inside 50s shows the Dogs don't muck around with the footy, preferring fast-possession ball movement.

Around the stoppages, Ben Hudson is a great competitor and is superb with his follow-up play to become an extra in-close midfielder - highlighted by his eight ground balls last week, second only to Matthew Boyd.

Also, look out for the third man up at ball-ups, a favourite play of Daniel Cross who tries to get the ball to the outside run of Nathan Eagleton or Ryan Griffen. They used this tactic effectively in the second half against the Swans last week.

St Kilda
With Adam Cooney absent from the Dogs' rotations, the Saints have the advantage in midfield depth, which will be important. This even stretched down to Stephen Milne pinch-hitting as an onballer in the heat of the qualifying final against Geelong.

Of importance will be the Saints' final entry inside 50, with any high balls suiting Ryan Hargrave, Lake and Williams. In turn, Lindsay Gilbee and Harbrow benefit from the long bomb, reading the play for handball receives from the key defenders and starting the Bulldogs counter-attack.

Expect Liam Picken to nullify either Nick Dal Santo or Leigh Montagna, who had 34 disposals last time they met.

FORWARDS v FORWARDS
Western Bulldogs
The Bulldogs' forwards kicked all their goals last week, so unless they can get some midfield scores through Eagleton, Griffen, Callan Ward and possibly Hudson running forward, they may struggle to kick a winning score.

The Dogs aren't as flexible in their forward line as last year. With Johnson's achilles keeping him away from too much midfield running, only one or two spots become available for a rotating mid-forward.

Hall, Mitch Hahn, Jarrad Grant, Andrew Hooper and at times a ruckman only play as forwards, where previously Cooney or Johnson could creep forward from midfield to score a cheap goal if the opposition were napping. This has contributed to the big reliance on Hall this year to kick goals.

Hally was the difference last week and has had an outstanding year, highlighting the value of players that can kick 60-plus goals (note for my old Essendon teammate Lloydy to put his hand up for a comeback!)

Johnson is still a valuable player and he had a significant impact by providing that high-forward link play last week. He seemed to move a lot more freely, with his output even higher in the last quarter. Along with Daniel Giansiracusa's three critical crumbed goals against the Swans, the Dogs have the experience to compete in big matches.

St Kilda
St Kilda has the ability to change its forward look if you add Montagna, Brendon Goddard, Andrew McQualter, and McEvoy or Michael Gardiner to the usual suspects.

The Saints will get enough chances in their forward 50, but it could be as much about their ability to have repeat scoring opportunities from the one inside 50 entry. Forward pressure, not being outmarked, and winning their share of ground balls will provide secondary scoring options and limit the best rebounding team in the league.

COACH v COACH
Two of the most intuitive coaches in the league will make sure that everything possible is done to avoid the other controlling the match for too long.

Rodney Eade loves to exploit opposition weaknesses, and although not as flexible with his midfield-forward rotations as last year, he still has enough players that can impact in different positions.

Gilbee started forward in the semi-final, and the move of regular 2010 defender Murphy to centre half-forward after half time helped get the Dogs over the line.

Ross Lyon has instilled finals belief into a driven St Kilda outfit. Despite the importance of some star players, they play their best footy as a team, highlighted by winning seven of 10 games in 2010 without Riewoldt.

UNDER THE RADAR
Robert Murphy is probably a little less worrying as a defender, but his return as an agile centre half-forward in the second half last week, finishing with 10 marks, was significant. He wheels off after a mark to keep the ball flowing, can turn left or right, and is a terrific decision maker.

Most premiership teams have at least one tagger, so there is probably no reason why Clint Jones shouldn't be in the All Australian team as the premier stopper of the top four teams, just in front of Ling. His ability to play defence or be an effective forward makes him a tag very hard to shake. Jones played on Cooney last time, so I'd expect Griffen to attract his attention this time.

HOW THE GAME WILL BE WON
If the Saints can show composure with their final kick inside 50, and force the Bulldog defenders to guard the leading forwards, then I feel the firepower of St Kilda will prove too much over the length of the game.

The Western Bulldogs' forward set-up will also be interesting to see. Pushing half-forwards up the field will suit St Kilda's defence, so alternate set-ups may need to be used to give Hally more one-on-one opportunities by nullifying any drop-off.

PREDICTION
St Kilda by 30 points

Peter Berbakov joined the Sydney Swans in 2004 in an IT and conditioning role before being appointed an assistant coach in 2007. He will join St Kilda as an assistant to Ross Lyon in 2011.

The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.

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