This time last year the Saints were flying at 19-1 with a percentage 30 points better than the second-placed Cats and with the expectation they would win the flag. This year, I get the feeling that people are thinking they’re not a genuine contender behind Collingwood and Geelong, but I think they are. They’re enjoying their “off the radar” status. Nick Riewoldt is hitting form at the right time - since his return from that hamstring he’s gone 1, 1, 2, 2, 4, 7 in terms of goals, which is the perfect script. Jason Gram has also got six games under his belt and he’s massively important as well.
Pies' frontal pressure
Collingwood reminds me of the 2009 Saints, only better. They have slightly different styles, but the Saints took the concept of forward pressure to a level we’d never seen before, and the fanaticism that their forwards had was amazing, along with the way they flooded forward. Leon Davis is out of the side, but basically the reason why Mick Malthouse is going to play him is because he’s at the top of the tree for tackles inside the forward-50. Why are they so much better this year? This is a major reason.
Bulldogs need amnesia
A triple-figure loss is a psyche-killer. In reality, it’s not a lot worse than losing by 15 goals, but it certainly seems to be a lot more significant. Being belted like that really affects your belief. Handling that just two weeks out from the finals would be very tough - you wouldn’t even look at the video, you’d just write it off as an aberration and move on. How do you regain that belief? This is where Rodney Eade is at his best - he’s got a great ability as a coach to compartmentalise issues, and the ability to do that very quickly, which is good, because he’ll need to.
Geelong - we’re still here, guys
Fourteen unanswered goals in just over a quarter was unbelievable, and sends the strongest possible message to the rest of the finals contenders. Geelong played three kids who had a combined total of five matches of experience in that win and with Cameron Ling, Harry Taylor, Joel Corey and possibly Tom Lonergan and Max Rooke to come back. Maybe the loss to the Pies was the reality check they needed in the run to September.
Swans succession plan
I know I’ve said it before, but I reckon the Swans have got a finals win in them. Young Dan Hannebery might have just stuck his nose in front in the race for the Rising Star award, after his 38 disposals on the weekend, and with Brett Kirk in his last season, they might have found themselves a future leader of the side.
Finals focus
Looking at the draw, I reckon you can have a fair stab at what the first week of the finals will look like - Collingwood v the Bulldogs, Geelong v St Kilda, Fremantle at home to the Hawks and the Swans at home to the Blues. That’s what will happen if the results fall the way I expect them to, and that sets up a couple of non-Victorian finals, ones that the Victorian sides would not be looking forward to at all. You can see a couple of interstate winners there.
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
