1. Collingwood
62 points (15 wins, three losses, one draw) 141.04 per cent
The run home:
Rd 20: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 21: Adelaide at the MCG
Rd 22: Hawthorn at the MCG
The run home will hold no fears for Mick Malthouse's Magpies who are absolutely flying after fixing up the Cats in fine style. The Bombers, Crows and Hawks are the teams Collingwood will use to tune up for a tilt at its first flag since 1990.
2. Geelong
56 points (14 wins, five losses), 142.07 per cent
The run home:
Rd 20: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: West Coast at Skilled Stadium
It would be folly to write off the Cats but the signs of fallibility are there. The latter half of the season has seen losses to St Kilda and Collingwood and another flag hopeful in the Bulldogs looms next week. After that, the on-again Blues will be another test before the season ends kindly at home to the wooden spooners.
3. St Kilda
54 points (13 wins, five losses, one draw) 121.84 per cent
The run home:
Rd 20: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Richmond at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Altitude training? Heavy workloads? Maybe the Saints have been conning us all. The drubbing of Port Adelaide suggests St Kilda is tuning up nicely for the finals and, on paper, should hum through the last three weeks. North Melbourne, fighting for a finals spot and to erase the humiliation of round two, will prove the Saints' sternest test.
4. Western Bulldogs
52 points (13 wins, six losses) 140.26 per cent
The run home:
Rd 20: Geelong at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Rd 22: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
The Dogs have stolen a march on Freo in the battle for fourth spot and should be able to hold onto it with wins over the Swans and Bombers in round 21 and 22 respectively. But it is to next week that all eyes now turn - if the Dogs are a fair dinkum chance for the flag, they will need to show it against premiers Geelong.
5. Fremantle
48 points (12 wins, seven losses) 111.44 per cent
The run home:
Rd 20: Sydney Swans at Subiaco Oval
Rd 21: Hawthorn at Aurora Stadium
Rd 22: Carlton at Subiaco Oval
Injuries and a long season are beginning to grind down the young Fremantle outfit. None of the remaining fixtures are easy despite two being at home. Nevertheless, Freo should hold on to claim a home final and, hopefully, recharge some energy.
6. Carlton
40 points (10 wins, nine losses), 106.99 per cent
The run home:
Rd 20: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 21: Geelong at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Fremantle at Subiaco Oval
They're a hard mob to get a hold of, the Blues. On paper the run home reads as one win (Richmond) and two losses (Geelong, Fremantle) but games have not gone to form for Carlton this season. There is still time to re-group and have a serious assault on September, especially if Carlton can emulate its round-five effort and knock off the Cats.
7. Sydney Swans
40 points (10 wins, nine losses), 103.85 per cent
The run home:
Rd 20: Fremantle at Subiaco Oval
Rd 21: Western Bulldogs at the SCG
Rd 22: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
The next two weeks will tell the tale for the Swans who have been a model of inconsistency in 2010. Win either of Freo next week or the Dogs in round 21 and a finals spot will be shored up. But Paul Roos and his charges would not want to leave it all hanging on defeating the Lions at the Gabba in the last round.
8. Hawthorn
38 points (nine wins, nine losses, one draw) 103.49 per cent
The run home:
Rd 20: Melbourne at the MCG
Rd 21: Fremantle at Aurora Stadium
Rd 22: Collingwood at the MCG
Perhaps the effort of chasing the pack after such a poor start has caught up to the Hawks. They take a pretty bleak form line into next week's match against an exuberant Melbourne. A loss may see Hawthorn out of the eight and needing to knock off both Fremantle and Collingwood in the final two games to secure a finals berth.
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9. North Melbourne
36 points (nine wins, 10 losses) 86.71 per cent
The run home:
Rd 20: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: West Coast at Subiaco
Rd 22: Melbourne at the MCG
If the Kangaroos do hop into September, they will have earned their spot. North face the Saints and then West Coast away, before wrapping up against Melbourne in round 22. That last game could well play as a mini-final, especially if one of the Swans or Hawthorn wobble.
10. Melbourne
34 points (eight wins, 10 losses, one draw), 97.09 per cent
The run home:
Rd 20: Hawthorn at the MCG
Rd 21: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 22: North Melbourne at the MCG
The Demons' finals tilt is well and truly alive but two massive hurdles still need to be negotiated. The first is next week's match against a suddenly out-of-sorts Hawthorn. Win that and the Demons will have a foothold in the eight. They'll probably need to beat North in round 22 to see September.
11. Adelaide
28 points (seven wins, 12 losses) 91.74 per cent
The run home:
Rd 20: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Rd 21: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 22: St Kilda at AAMI Stadium
When the draw for season 2010 was announced, Crows fans would have been drooling over the prospect of running into the finals with games against Collingwood and St Kilda. That was then, this is now. And the now isn't pretty.
12. Essendon
28 points (seven wins, 12 losses) 84.40 per cent
The run home:
Rd 20: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 21: Brisbane Lions at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Essendon is a conundrum. But whichever way the puzzle works out, its solution will not be found during September. The Magpies will sink the Dons' slim finals hopes next week and, from there, the focus is sure to settle on the tenure of Matthew Knights.
13. Port Adelaide
28 points (seven wins, 12 losses), 77.84 per cent
The run home:
Rd 20: West Coast at AAMI Stadium
Rd 21: Melbourne at AAMI Stadium
Rd 22: Richmond at Etihad Stadium
Three games remaining, three possible wins for the Power. And, after the shellacking at the hands of St Kilda, that would be a nice way to finish the season, especially for aspiring coach Matthew Primus.
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
