CONVENTIONAL footy wisdom suggests a higher number of marks inside 50 leads to a higher winning margin, but that's not the case in women's football.
A study conducted by Georgia Black from the Australian Catholic University looked at the first season of the NAB AFL Women's competition (2017) and identified which statistical categories most correlated to winning.
Published in the international journal Science and Medicine in Football, the study goes some way to demonstrating the statistical differences between the men's and the women's games.
Conversion is vital
Speedy Brisbane Lions duo Kate McCarthy and Jess Wuetschner piled on the goals in the first AFLW season, and the leading goalkicker in 2018 was pacy Bulldog Brooke Lochland, so it's not so much of a surprise to find higher winning margins were associated with fewer marks inside 50.
"Teams who could score running goals more often did the damage," Black said.
"We learned that teams couldn't just bomb it long to a contest in the attacking arc and expect to score.
"Having a better understanding of this will affect teams' strategies and recruitment. They'll need to think more about alternative inside-50 entry options and novel methods of getting forward."
The study showed AFLW had several different attributes to the AFL game, but there was one similarity – good conversion inside 50 was crucial to winning.
In 2017, when AFLW teams kicked a goal at least once for every four entries, they won 73 per cent of matches.
By comparison, if teams took more than five entries to kick a goal, their chances of winning were at least three times less.
Key forwards are named so for a reason
In good news for key forwards like Carlton's Tayla Harris, Brisbane's Sabrina Frederick-Traub, Bulldog Katie Brennan and Demon Tegan Cunningham, the study found a strong correlation between contested marks and ladder position.
"Taking contested marks means you control possession and the pace of the game," Black said.
"As the AFLW competition evolves, I expect this will have a big impact on player development and draft strategy. Tall, strong-marking players will become even more influential in the women's game."
Fremantle, which struggled in both AFLW seasons, especially up forward, averaged just two contested marks a match this year.
The winning formula
Statistics from the first season of AFLW action revealed a benchmark that, if reached, resulted in a 100 per cent winning rate.
If a team recorded more than 72 uncontested possessions, it would win.
First-season wooden-spooner Greater Western Sydney averaged 69 uncontested possessions a match.
Stats to look for in AFLW
The study found statistics that had a greater indicator of success were:
- The number of kicks
- Conversion of inside-50 entries
- Contested marks
- Uncontested possessions
By comparison, less relevant statistics were:
- The number of handballs
- Contested possessions
- Clangers
