HANDS up who predicted Brandon Matera (FWD, $455,000) would be the AFL's highest averaging forward after four rounds this year?
Yes, the sample size is just two games, but the Gold Coast goalsneak has certainly put in a Fantasy fortnight to remember, torching the Hawks and the Blues for a collective 245 points.
The question is whether Matera can keep it going against the Crows this week. The stats say you can expect a dip, but not enough of one to rule him out.
Matera averages a respectable 73 at Metricon Stadium, and 68.3 against the Crows. His projected score is 78 this week, which in itself would deliver a healthy $32,000 price rise straight up.
The risk with Matera is that he's traditionally been a feast or famine kind of Fantasy player.
His best season was 2015 where he averaged 70.7 over 19 games – that year he started slowly before coming home with a bang, deliver four scores over 85 in the final six rounds.
The best strategy might be to bring him in this week, and trade him out at the completion of round eight when the Suns have their bye after their trip to Shanghai to play the Power.
There's always a chance that game could be shifted to Metricon Stadium, following the revelation from Port Adelaide CEO Keith Thomas that the Suns' home ground is the back-up venue if the USA or North Korea get a little eager with the red button over the coming month.
At least Matera's got plenty of exposed form on his home ground – his Fantasy numbers in Mandarin-speaking countries are a bit scratchy, to say the least.
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Top five price rises
- Alex Neal-Bullen, Melbourne (MID/FWD, $426,000): +$49,000
- Nic Newman, Sydney (DEF, $270,000): +$47,000
- Dan Houston, Port Adelaide (FWD, $309,000): +$46,000
- Braydon Preuss, North Melbourne (RUC, $316,000): +$43,000
- Brandon Matera, Gold Coast (FWD, $455,000): +$43,000
Top five price falls
- Tom Cutler, Brisbane Lions (DEF, $397,000): -$36,000
- Michael Barlow, Gold Coast (MID, $531,000): -$33,000
- Aaron Young, Port Adelaide (FWD, $383,000): -$33,000
- Tom Ruggles, Geelong (DEF, $339,000): -$31,000
- Luke Brown, Adelaide (DEF, $349,000): -$31,000
Get 'em in
Harley Balic, Fremantle (MID/FWD, $178,000): After a quiet debut in round three, the talented Docker got his skates on against the Demons (73 points) and made himself a must-have with a round five breakeven of -7.
Brent Stanton, Essendon (MID, $514,000): Wait, come back! The Dons' whipping boy hasn't set the world on fire this year but averages 124.5 against this week's Anzac Day opponent Collingwood. Worth considering as a point of difference.
Brayden Fiorini, Gold Coast (MID, $506,000): Fantasy gurus have been drooling over this bloke for a while now. He's locked down his spot in the Suns' 22 and is delivering those NEAFL-like numbers. Climb aboard.
Bye for now
Michael Barlow, Gold Coast (MID, $531,000): The veteran Sun will have to overcome a hamstring strain to play this week, but with a breakeven of 124 to reach against the surging Crows, it's time to seek better options.
Kieren Jack, Sydney (MID, $458,000): The Swans are staring down the barrel of 0-5 and it's hard to see Jack getting back to Fantasy form against GWS. Trade for Darcy Parish or Jack Steele.
David Armitage, St Kilda (MID, $486,000): In his return match from a groin injury, Armitage came off sore and is touch and go for this week's clash with Geelong. Consider Ben Cunnington as a replacement.
