ROUND 17 has just two games that appear ‘lock-ins’, a notion the Mozz will be quick to disabuse you of anyway. The rest of the matches present nightmares for tipsters, so take a look at the reasons that will sway you one way - or maybe the other.
St Kilda vs. Hawthorn
Why the Saints win:
The Saints have won their last five Friday night games at Etihad Stadium and haven’t actually lost a game in that timeslot at the venue since early in 2008. Ross Lyon’s team have generally had the better of the Hawks in recent years, winning three of the last four games between the sides and seven of nine since 2003.
Why the Hawks win:
When the Saints and the Hawks have clashed in Round 17 previously, the Hawks have won two out of three occasions.
The Market*: St Kilda $1.77, Hawthorn $2.28
The Mozz: The Hawks are in tremendous form, and with Buddy Franklin returning this week, present a formidable challenge to the Saints. But St Kilda is always a tough prospect at Etihad, and having been stung by Collingwood last week, expect them to bounce back.
Collingwood vs. Richmond
Why the Magpies win:
Like many teams, the Pies have had the better of Richmond in recent years, and haven’t suffered a defeat to the Tigers since Round 19, 2007. The Pies love big Saturday afternoon games at the ‘G, and they’ve had a strong upper hand in this timeslot against the Tigers, winning 98 of 168 (with one draw).
Why the Tigers win:
While Saturday afternoon suits the Pies, overall the Tigers are narrowly ahead in games between these two clubs at the MCG, leading 31 wins to 29. Close games in Round 17 have suited the Tigers, their most recent ones being wins by three and five points respectively.
The Market*: Collingwood $1.13, Richmond $8.40
The Mozz: A win for the Tigers last week against North would have guaranteed a crowd of at least 70,000 for this game. As it is, there should still be big numbers at the ‘G, but with the Pies sitting on top of the ladder, Malthouse’s boys have too much to play for to let this one slip.
Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions
Why the Cats win:
The Lions fit into the well-populated category of ‘teams that struggle at Skilled Stadium’. The Cats have won the last five games between the sides at home by an average margin of 55 points. In fact, post the fabulous triple-premiership team, the Lions haven’t won in Geelong. Their last victory at Skilled was in 2003.
Why the Lions win:
Um, the Lions beat the Cats at the ‘Gabba in Round 15 last year. Anyone?
The Market*: Geelong $1.07, Brisbane $13.00
The Mozz: Michael Voss has had plenty of stern words for his team this week, so expect a closer game than the mauling handed out to the Lions by Hawthorn. But it would be a foolish tipster to back against the Cats at home against an interstate team now well outside the eight.
West Coast Eagles vs. Carlton
Why the Eagles win:
Back in days of old (well, Round 15, 2003) these teams staged their only Saturday night meeting at Subiaco Oval, with the Eagles victorious by a massive 116 points. Generally the Eagles hold the advantage over the Blues at Subiaco, with 11 wins to seven.
Why the Blues win:
It’s a close-run thing, but the Blues hold the better overall record against the Eagles, 18 wins to 16 Brett Ratten has had the better of John Worsfold in their teams’ last three encounters, breaking a winning streak by West Coast during 2004-07.
The Market*: West Coast $2.00, Carlton $1.97
The Mozz: One of many tricky games to pick this weekend, as the Eagles were super on the road last week, while Carlton was deplorable against Sydney. There’s expectation that a fired-up Chris Judd will lead his team to victory, but it’s just as likely that the rare prospect of consecutive wins can give West Coast the edge. Eagles in a close one.
North Melbourne vs. Essendon
Why the Kangaroos win:
North has one of the stronger patterns of domination in the AFL on a particular club, having had the wood over the Bombers since 2002, with Essendon recording just one win over the Kangaroos in that time. The two teams have only met once previously on a Saturday night at Etihad Stadium, when the Kangaroos won by 42 points in 2005.
Why the Bombers win:
Over the long term, Round 17 suits the Bombers when playing the Kangaroos - they’ve won five of the seven contests held at this point in the season. Despite struggling recently against the Roos, it’s still the Bombers with a clear historical edge, winning 93 games to 50 (with one draw).
The Market*: North Melbourne $1.51, Essendon $2.88
The Mozz: Looms as a danger game for North, but the Bombers were insipid against West Coast last week despite much talk of solidarity. There's too much at stake for the Kangas to relax, so keep the faith with them.
Western Bulldogs vs. Fremantle
Why the Bulldogs win:
A powerful Bulldogs team has been too good for Freo in recent seasons, winning their last five games between the sides. The historical edge also sits with Rodney Eade’s men, having won 12 games to seven against Fremantle.
Why Fremantle win:
The WA side seems to pick up a bit of speed around this time of year, and have won five of their last six Round 17 matches. Since 2005, the Dogs have only lost twice to non-Victorian teams at Etihad, and both times it was to the West Coast Eagles. Maybe another team from the west can do it?
The Market*: Western Bulldogs $1.34, Fremantle $3.85
The Mozz: Apparently someone’s contract was terminated at the Bulldogs this week, but if they can keep their heads, a crucial win looms for Eade’s team. Expect plenty of fight from Freo in a game that will shape the final ladder position in a big way. Bulldogs to scrape through.
Melbourne vs. Sydney Swans
Why the Demons win:
The Demons hold an advantage over the Swans at the MCG, having won 48 games to 39 (plus one draw). It’s been nine long years since these two teams met on a Sunday afternoon at the MCG, and the Demons triumphed that day by 15 points.
Why the Swans win:
The Swans have won the last five clashes between these two sides in Round 17. For the last four years, the Demons have been easy pickings for Sydney - the Swans haven’t lost to them since 2006, with most of those games being played at Manuka Oval in Canberra.
The Market*: Melbourne $2.44, Sydney $1.67
The Mozz: A decent game looms depending on which Melbourne turns up for the first half. If the good Demons (?) show, expect the contest to be in the balance at three-quarter time, with the finals-bound Swans to edge it in the end.
Port Adelaide vs. Adelaide Crows
Why the Power win:
As you might expect, the Showdown record is close, with Port shading it 15 wins to 13. Port Adelaide has won three of the last four games between the teams.
Why the Crows win:
If it’s a blowout or a close one, history favours the Crows, with an 83-point win over their rivals in the 2005 finals and the closest Showdown also going their way - a six point victory in Round 3, 2008. Maybe Andrew McLeod’s experience can get the Crows over the line. He’s played more Showdowns than any player from either team with 24.
The Market*: Port Adelaide $3.80, Adelaide $1.34
The Mozz: Another emotion-charged Showdown beckons, with this one being Josh Carr’s final game of AFL football. These games often defy trends and while Adelaide looks to be heading up the table towards the finals, expect the Power to come out fighting and emerge victorious.
The views in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
* - prices via Betfair.com, as of 12pm, Friday, July 23
