1. Collingwood
66 points (16 wins, three losses, one draw) 145.79 per cent
The run home:
Rd 21: Adelaide at the MCG
Rd 22: Hawthorn at the MCG
The Pies are 'miles away' from where they need to be according to skipper Nick Mawell - bad news for Adelaide and Hawthorn, the next sparring partners for the indefatigable Collingwood machine. Oh the (minor) premiership's a cakewalk!
2. Geelong
60 points (15 wins, five losses), 146.95 per cent
The run home:
Rd 21: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: West Coast at Skilled Stadium
Rumours about the Cats' demise appear to have been exaggerated. Geelong tore flag aspirants the Bulldogs apart and now will tune up against the Blues and Eagles before facing a probable match up with the Saints in week one of the finals.
3. St Kilda
58 points (14 wins, five losses, one draw) 124.51 per cent
The run home:
Rd 21: Richmond at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
With third almost sewn up, the Saints will look upon Richmond and Adelaide as opportunities to bridge the class gap between them and the top two. And if Riewoldt keeps kicking seven, they may just get there.
4. Western Bulldogs
52 points (13 wins, seven losses) 129.51 per cent
The run home:
Rd 21: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Rd 22: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
The Swans are surging and will be no pushover for a Bulldogs team that had its premiership dreams thrust into a cruel reality by the rampaging Geelong on Saturday night. A top-four spot will still be in the offing for the Dogs, but has their confidence been shredded by the Cats' claws?
5. Fremantle
48 points (12 wins, eight losses) 110.35 per cent
The run home:
Rd 21: Hawthorn at Aurora Stadium
Rd 22: Carlton at Subiaco Oval
Amazingly, Freo's shot at the top four is still alive but it will need two things to happen. One: the Western Bulldogs to stumble in both remaining rounds; two: disposing both Hawthorn and Carlton in its two final matches. However, drop either match and Freo could find itself fighting for a home final.
6. Carlton
44 points (11 wins, nine losses), 111.76 per cent
The run home:
Rd 21: Geelong at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Fremantle at Subiaco Oval
The Blues have risen to the challenge thrown down by their coach in recent weeks and now face football's most daunting task: knocking off the Cats. If Carlton can emulate its early-season win over Geelong, it is in line for a home final - a fixture that may come down to the round-22 result against Fremantle.
7. Sydney Swans
44 points (11 wins, nine losses), 104.17 per cent
The run home:
Rd 21: Western Bulldogs at the SCG
Rd 22: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
The Swans have two very winnable games and are every chance to nab a home final in week one of the finals. But only if they can get over a Dogs team that will surely be smarting after being fustigated by the Cats.
8. Hawthorn
42 points (10 wins, nine losses, one draw) 104.55 per cent
The run home:
Rd 21: Fremantle at Aurora Stadium
Rd 22: Collingwood at the MCG
The Hawks responded well to their flat patch with victory over Melbourne and should shore up a finals spot with a win over Freo in Tasmania next week. The round-22 game against the Magpies will give a more accurate indication of how much of September Hawthorn can expect to see.
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9. North Melbourne
36 points (nine wins, 11 losses) 84.88 per cent
The run home:
Rd 21: West Coast at Subiaco
Rd 22: Melbourne at the MCG
North Melbourne's destiny is out of its own hands after losing to St Kilda on Sunday, but the Kangas can still end the year well with victories in the two games to come, both of which are winnable. And who knows? If the Hawks stumble next week, North may yet have the faintest whiff of September.
10. Melbourne
34 points (eight wins, 11 losses, one draw), 96.05 per cent
The run home:
Rd 21: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 22: North Melbourne at the MCG
Sunday's loss to the Hawks makes it all theoretical for the Demons, who must rely on a set of freakish results and two massive wins in their final games to be any chance of seeing September.
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
