HAVE we seen enough in Carlton's 0-3 start to 2014 to write it off as a finals contender?
Melbourne great Garry Lyon thinks so.
In the wake of the Blues' 81-point capitulation to Essendon at the MCG on Sunday night, Lyon told AFL.com.au's Access All Areas that the Blues should already focus on developing their youngsters.
"I think it's time just to play kids," Lyon said.
"The Carlton footy club is not going to make the finals."
It's a big call.
Particularly when the Blues were in the same position after three rounds last year and rebounded to sneak into the finals.
Admittedly, they got in through the back door, only qualifying after Essendon was thrown out of the finals as part of its supplements saga penalties.
Still, they were good enough to beat Richmond in an elimination final and pushed the Sydney Swans in the first semi-final, going down by a respectable 24 points.
Like last year, the Blues have not had an easy opening fixture.
In 2013, their first three opponents – Richmond, Collingwood and Geelong – all went on to play finals.
Of this year's opponents, Port and Essendon have started 2014 in form that suggests they could contend for the top four, while the Tigers will be expecting to bounce back from their lacklustre 1-2 start.
Carlton was highly competitive in its first two games too, leading Port at three-quarter time before being overrun and shooting itself in the foot with a 3.7 final quarter against the Tigers.
The next five rounds will provide much more evidence on where the Blues sit.
That stretch kicks off this Saturday against this year's likely wooden-spooner Melbourne (MCG) and includes highly winnable clashes at Etihad Stadium against the Western Bulldogs (round five) and St Kilda (round eight).
In between are tougher assignments against West Coast (Etihad Stadium) and Collingwood (MCG), but Carlton can kiss its finals chances goodbye if doesn't go into its round nine bye with at least a 3-5 record.
Fortunately for the Blues, they can confidently expect to improve over the next month.
In round five, they expect to regain their most inspirational player, former skipper Chris Judd, from an Achilles injury.
Former Brisbane Lion Sam Docherty (knee) played his first game for the season in the VFL last weekend and should add dash to Carlton's defence when he breaks into the team.
And players such as Lachie Henderson, Dale Thomas and Andrew Carrazzo, who have already returned from pre-season injuries, will only get better as their match fitness improves.
But we've seen enough of Carlton in 2014 to safely make one judgment – Mick Malthouse's pre-season suggestion that the Blues were nearing the critical 11 o'clock marker on the premiership clock is way off.
"I would say that we're approaching 11 o'clock, but I think there's a lot of sides approaching 11 o'clock," Malthouse said in March.
"Part way through the season we've got to say, well, some sides aren't near [that], and we want to be progressing through 11 o'clock.
"And I don't see any reason why that can't be the case. I haven't got a crystal ball, but we've got a very good blend of senior players and we've got a good blend in the middle."
Whether the current Blues group has passed through its premiership window, or whether its 2-4 finals record since 2009 is proof that window was never even ajar, doesn't really matter.
Either way, it's hard to see Carlton finishing top four in the next few years.
Not when its most inspirational player, Chris Judd, is a chance to retire at the end of this season.
The era of change from Chris Judd to Marc Murphy is proving a tricky one for the Blues. Picture: AFL Media
Not when one of the most important players in its spine, Jarrad Waite, is 31 and has averaged 12 games a season over the past five years.
And not when the Blues' succession planning to replace the key forward has been hurt by well-documented struggles at the draft table in recent years.
In 2009, they overlooked talls Daniel Talia, Jake Carlisle and Aaron Black to take midfielder Kane Lucas. How much would Malthouse love to have Talia or Carlisle down back so he could play Lachie Henderson as a permanent forward? Or Black to partner Waite up forward?
The Blues went tall at the following draft, taking key-position players with their first three picks – Matthew Watson (No. 18), Patrick McCarthy (34) and Luke Mitchell (42). All but Watson are gone and questions marks linger about his speed and ability to compete with power forwards in one-on-one duels.
Former rookie Levi Casboult and Sam Rowe could yet solve some of Carlton's key-position problems, but at this stage they've both got a way to go.
If the Blues want to avoid bottoming out – and they are not renowned for their patience – they'll need to be inventive.
They were at last October's player exchange period, bringing in three former first-round draft picks in Thomas, Docherty and Andrejs Everitt.
They will need to be just as aggressive this year. Unrestricted free agent James Frawley would be a good starting point. At the right price, the Demon would give them the ready-made key defender they're crying out for.
If their finals hopes are shot well before the end of the season, they should also consider letting restricted free agent Bryce Gibbs go. And if the maligned utility draws an opposition offer long and lucrative enough to earn the Blues a first-round compensation pick, they should grab it with both hands.
