MATCH DETAILS
Sydney Swans v Collingwood, Saturday, July 5, 7.10pm (AEST) at ANZ Stadium.
FORECAST
Fine
Minimum 9, maximum 17
BETTING
Collingwood $2.60, Sydney $1.45
LAST TIME THEY MET
Collingwood 18.17 (125) d Sydney Swans 13.9 (87), second elimination final, 2007 at the MCG
FORM GUIDE
The Swans have been in awesome form leading into this clash, winning their past six matches. But take a closer look at the Swans’ streak and only one win has come against a side currently in the top eight. That was St Kilda, hardly a great barometer.
However, the Swans can only beat the sides they're pitted against and have shown single-mindedness this year, regardless of their opponent. Also consider that their last loss, against the Western Bulldogs, came after running with them for most of their round-seven clash.
Collingwood’s most recent loss was also at the hands of the Western Bulldogs, going down in an extremely tough tussle at Telstra Dome two weeks ago. The Magpies had a four-goal break over the Dogs when Anthony Rocca left the field injured and the fortunes of the match swung the other way.
It was still a gutsy performance by the Pies, earning plenty of respect, but they will need to show more grit against the Swans in Sydney.
MEDICAL ROOM
Collingwood will test Josh Fraser (knee), Leon Davis (ankle) and Nathan Lonie (shoulder) ahead of the match. Brodie Holland (achilles) is still one or two weeks away while Anthony Rocca (ankle) and Ben Reid (foot) are both expected to miss six to eight weeks. Sean Rusling (shoulder) and Brad Dick (knee) are out for the season.
The Swans will test Ed Barlow (hamstring) and Peter Everitt (hamstring), while Nic Fosdike (hamstring) will miss one more week.
RANDOM FACTS
• Harry O’Brien will play his 50th match against the Swans on Saturday night.
• Scott Pendlebury averaged 21 disposals, four marks, four clearances and five inside 50s in his three games against the Swans last season.
• Collingwood has averaged 12 more running bounces than its opposition per game in the past month – ranked No. 1 in the AFL.
KEY MATCH-UPS
Harry O’Brien v Ryan O’Keefe
O’Keefe is having a career-best season, averaging 20 disposals and five marks per game, and has proven handy in setting up a lot of the Swans’ goals this year. However, he has been wasteful with his own opportunities, kicking 14 goals from 36 scoring opportunities. O’Brien will not be afraid to take O’Keefe on with his ability to provide Collingwood with plenty of run off half-back.
Dane Swan v Brett Kirk
Swan leads the Pies in disposals, is second at the club for kicks and tackles, third in handballs and fourth for marks taken. He had a quieter game against the Bulldogs, only managing 17 possessions, but he did kick two goals and laid a game-high six tackles. Kirk was brilliant against Melbourne two weeks ago, amassing 27 possessions, and leads the Swans in handballs, disposals and tackles. As always, he looms as one of their most dangerous players.
Paul Medhurst v Martin Mattner
Medhurst has been Collingwood’s most dangerous forward this year and, in the absence of Anthony Rocca, will be expected to kick a bag if the Pies are to get over the line. Mattner has been crucial to the Swans’ defence since crossing from Adelaide and, in the clash with the Demons, even managed to push forward to kick two goals.
WHAT THE CLUBS SAY
Collingwood
"It gives us confidence knowing we've had good past performances but recent history is really about four weeks," assistant coach Brad Scott said.
"Any longer than that and things change, personnel changes. They've had some really good inclusions in Marty Mattner and [Nick] Malceski is back from his injury.
"They look a little bit different in terms of personnel to the last time we played them, so I don't think the history is going to play a big part. It's going to be a new game."
Sydney Swans
"To lose twice to the same side is something you don't like as footballers but to lose three times against Collingwood, well that's just disappointing," defender Tadhg Kennelly said.
"They seem to match up well against us. Obviously they beat us three times last season which doesn't sit well with a lot of our players.
"In the past, we've given them too much space in the midfield and given them free run out of the middle and that's put us under a massive, massive amount of pressure."
The views in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of the club.
