WHERE AND WHEN: MCG, September 7, 7.15pm AEST
TV AND RADIO: Click here for the broadcast guide
THIS YEAR – R1, 2014, Essendon 15.9 (99) d North Melbourne 9.6 (60) at Etihad Stadium
Essendon started its season with a bang to completely outplay North Melbourne and win by 39 points. In Dustin Fletcher's 379th game, which saw him become the club's record games holder, the Bombers won the midfield battle and had the firepower up forward. New recruit Paul Chapman kicked four goals in his first game for the club and Jobe Watson was best afield with 38 disposals and two goals.
PREVIOUS FIVE ENCOUNTERS
R1, 2014, Essendon 15.9 (99) d North Melbourne 9.6 (60) at Etihad Stadium
R21, 2013, North Melbourne 17.13 (115) d Essendon 9.16 (70) at Etihad Stadium
R20, 2012, North Melbourne 15.10 (100) d Essendon 11.10 (76) at Etihad Stadium
R1, 2012, Essendon 14.20 (104) d North Melbourne 15.12 (102) at Etihad Stadium
R13, 2011, North Melbourne 17.9 (111) d Essendon 12.18 (90) at Etihad Stadium
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KEY MATCH-UPS
Paddy Ryder and Todd Goldstein will have an important battle in the ruck, with the winner likely to shape the midfield contest between the teams. Ryder will also push forward and offer a marking target in attack, so Goldstein will need to be aware of that and nullify Ryder's influence there.
Lindsay Thomas kicked four goals in round one and can turn games for North in the forward line, leaving Mark Baguley for a big shutdown job in defence. Baguley has improved immensely over the past two years and has become a big part of Essendon's defence. But Thomas has booted 39 goals for the season.
MEDICAL ROOM
The Bombers will be without star forward Jake Carlisle, whose hamstring injury hasn't recovered quickly enough to meet the Roos. That leaves Essendon one matchwinner short, and they are still without key defender Dustin Fletcher (broken finger). The Roos could be without Lachie Hansen with his hip complaint, but Levi Greenwood is expected to play after being sidelined with a minor calf injury last week.
WHAT HAPPENS IF THEY WIN?
The winner will progress to the semi-final and stay in Victoria, playing the loser of the qualifying final between Hawthorn and Geelong.
WHAT HAPPENS IF THEY LOSE?
It's season over for the loser, and will largely be an unfulfilled year. North and the Bombers have each lost their past three finals, and the drought will extend for whoever goes down.
THE SIX POINTS
1. North Melbourne and Essendon have clashed seven times previously in finals. Their last meeting was the 2000 qualifying final, when Essendon kicked 31 goals and won by 125 points en route to the premiership.
2. The Bombers remain a high disposal side, ranked second for average disposals in the competition.
3. Essendon comes into the clash with more recent MCG experience. The Bombers have played at the MCG 14 times compared to the Kangaroos' four in the past two seasons.
4. In a strange twist, former St Kilda teammates Brendon Goddard and Nick Dal Santo will face each other on opposing teams on Saturday night.
5. Paddy Ryder's career-best year has been reflected in the Official AFL Player Ratings, brought to you by Gatorade. Ryder is ranked No.69 in the competition – he started the year at No.120.
6. North will be without its best player, according to the Official AFL Player Ratings. Their suspended veteran Brent Harvey is the sixth best player in the competition according to the Official AFL Player Ratings.
PREDICTION: Essendon by 11 points
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