WHICHEVER way you cut it, Collingwood remains just off the pace.
Despite a percentage of 96 and a biggest losing margin of 37 points in 2017, the reality is the Pies sit 13th on the ladder, are unlikely to make finals, and the football department is being reviewed.
Bad luck and injuries have hurt the transition plan, but right now that means little.
Beyond the obvious decision on Nathan Buckley's future, the starkest question is what is needed to improve the list enough so it makes the jump inside the eight.
Improvement from within
Much of the immediate improvement, as ever, will need to come from those already on the list.
It is not impossible to see that happening with a list that contains midfielders Brodie Grundy, Adam Treloar, Taylor Adams, Steele Sidebottom and Scott Pendlebury.
If Daniel Wells gets fit and Tom Phillips, Rupert Wills, Josh Thomas, Jordan De Goey and James Aish improve while Jack Crisp and Levi Greenwood stay solid, then it only needs to fill a hole at either end to get much better.
Does that mean a big fish is needed?
That's not going to be easy because key position players don't grow on trees, but at least it gives hope of a quick boost in fortune.
The major asset at the trade table the Magpies could use to fill the gap is pick No.6 and some future picks.
With that selection, it could pick young Bendigo forward Jarrod Brander or dashing defender Lochie O'Brien to get an instant lift, unless Adelaide defender Jake Lever chose to join Collingwood.
Darcy Moore might be worth experimenting with as a key defender if Lever doesn't arrive, trying Ben Reid alongside Mason Cox up forward as both compete hard, run to the right spots and can bring the ball to the ground.
Cox has been maligned, but the out-of-contract 26-year-old would be an enticing prospect for other clubs if the Magpie coaching panel can't back him in to fill a role.
The plan could then be to set its sights on Gold Coast forward Tom Lynch when he comes out of contract at the end of 2018 rather than skirting around the edges with Sydney Swan Sam Reid, who is still a very good player.
Players such as Port Adelaide's Jackson Trengove or Carlton's Levi Casboult don't fit the bill.
Any half-baked moves at the trade table would repeat in some ways the mysterious decision to recruit former Fremantle free agent Chris Mayne that occurred when Graeme Allan was a shock appointment as football manager.
If there are lessons in Geelong and the Swans' ability to defy gravity, it was the addition of superstars Patrick Dangerfield and Lance Franklin above all else that kept them in contention.
That's why Lynch is the type required.
Whatever the tall set-up, Jamie Elliott, Alex Fasolo and Will Hoskin-Elliott have talent, while Josh Daicos, Callum Brown, Kayle Kirby and Ben Crocker could pinch-hit according to form.
Gun Sun Tom Lynch would plug a glaring hole at Collingwood. Picture: AFL Photos.
Trade commodities
Tim Broomhead, although contracted, might be tradeable, while a package involving the 23-year-old and either fellow South Australians, James Aish and/or Matt Scharenberg, could also create some currency at the trade table and create TPP space.
If those three had realised the potential most thought they had at the time Collingwood recruited them, then the Magpies might be closer to finals, with injury and seemingly form denying them opportunities.
Defences don't break banks
Collingwood's defence has conceded a score 49.4 per cent of the time, only better than the Brisbane Lions and Gold Coast despite conceding the second-fewest inside 50s.
That's not just a personnel issue, however. That is a system problem.
Collingwood should make a huge effort to make retired Hawthorn champion Luke Hodge part of its coaching set-up in 2018.
Look at how the Hawks have managed to re-set its backline on the run with Kaiden Brand, Ryan Burton, Kurt Heatherley and Jack Gunston emerging.
Backlines don't need to cost a fortune. They just need to get the job done.
With Moore and Jeremy Howe down back, Collingwood's third man across/intercept marking power would be outstanding and their ball movement would also help the forwards who are craving quick entries.
Lynden Dunn has been excellent arriving on little money and halting forwards from leaping at the contest, while Tyson Goldsack has been reborn, but they were only supposed to be back-up plans going into the season.
Tom Langdon was a good late pick, but injury has slowed his progress.
Brayden Maynard has been exceptional as a kicking defender given he was selection No.30, while Josh Smith filled a hole as a rookie but has deficiencies.
Ben Sinclair's run has been missed, but is worth persisting with if confidence can be found in his body as he gains metres, a role Travis Varcoe performs when fit.
Second-stringers that could be considered to fill a hole without breaking the bank include Hawthorn's Ryan Schoenmakers, the Brisbane Lions' Michael Close and Richmond's Jake Batchelor, or they could even make a play for an in-contract defender such as the Sydney Swans' Aliir Aliir or any of West Coast's tall timber.
The leap
The list build since Buckley arrived has laid a solid foundation without achieving a spectacular leap from one successful era to the next.
All parts of the club share responsibility for that.
However, a platform has been set, meaning that one, perhaps two big moves at the trade table, via the draft, or, importantly, with inspired coaching, could make a huge difference.
