THE "HUGE curve ball" thrown at this year's top eight by the pre-finals bye might not be as unpredictable as Hawthorn coach Alastair Clarkson thinks.
After Hawthorn's loss to West Coast last Friday night, Clarkson suggested next week's bye had muddied the finals waters so much he was not sure whether it would be in a top-four team's interest to win its qualifying final and go straight through to preliminary final week.
"The huge curve ball with this year's finals series is that bye after round 23. It's never been done in the game before, no one knows how it's going to pan out," Clarkson said.
"Even if you win the first final you've then got a very, very nervous wait. When you get into the 'prelim' you've had one game in three weeks, which is really, really unique.
"So I don't really know where we want to finish to be fair."
Although a pre-finals bye is a new addition to the AFL calendar, the top-five finals system used from 1972-90 also exposed some teams to two week-long breaks during the finals.
Under that system, the team that finished the home and away season on top of the ladder was awarded a rest in week one of the finals as the second and third teams battled for the right to play it in the second semi-final the following week.
If the top team won that semi-final, it went straight through to the Grand Final, enjoying another week off while the two remaining finalists played off in a preliminary final.
Ten times during these 19 seasons, the top team won its semi-final to earn a second week off during the finals.
And after playing one game in the previous three weeks – the scenario a top-four team that wins straight through to a preliminary final will face this year – seven of those teams went on to win the Grand Final.
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In the nine seasons where the top team lost its semi-final and had to play a preliminary final the following week, just three of those sides regrouped to win the premiership while four did not even make the Grand Final.
Gary Ayres' experiences with Hawthorn in the 1980s also suggest the pre-finals bye won't disadvantage teams that take the direct path to preliminary final week and could, in fact, boost the flag chances of Clarkson's ageing group.
Ayres played in seven consecutive Grand Finals with Hawthorn from 1983-1989. The Hawks finished on top of the ladder in three of those seasons (1986, 1988 and 1989), winning all three premierships after enjoying a rest in the opening week of the finals.
In 1986, the Hawks' flag triumph came via a preliminary final after they lost the second semi-final to their eventual Grand Final victim Carlton, but their ageing list subsequently won straight passages to the Grand Final ahead of the 1988 and 1989 premierships.
One game in three weeks didn't hury Gary Ayres and the Hawks in the '80s. Picture: AFL Photos
When asked whether it would be advantageous for a team to have two weeks off before and during this year's finals, Ayres told AFL.com.au it would depend on how tough the team's lead-in to the finals had been and the age of its list.
"As you get a little bit older you certainly appreciate the ability to manage your body just that little bit more than what you normally would if you had a really heavy campaign," Ayres said.
"It's very much about the age dynamic of your group. We were always indoctrinated with Jeansy's (coach Allan Jeans) thoughts, which were that if you had a top-five system and you finished on top, you only had to win one game, the second semi, and you were straight through to a Grand Final.
"He was always really big on trying to finish as high as you could and then making sure that you controlled whatever you could in relation to fitness and having your group fresh.
"Then it comes down to what happens on that one day."
Ayres said the Hawks teams of his era had never been overly worried that winning straight through to the Grand Final would leave them underdone, confident their run of consecutive finals campaigns would have them "fairly match hardened" on the big day.
No team will enter this year's finals series more match hardened than Clarkson's three-time premiers.
Minor premiers under top-five five finals system, 1972-90
(a) Won second semi-final after week's rest: 10
(i) Won Grand Final after week's rest: 7
(b) Lost second semi-final: 9
(i) Won preliminary final and Grand Final: 3
(ii) Won preliminary final and lost Grand Final: 2
(iii) Lost preliminary final: 4
