Head to head: St Kilda 71 wins, Hawthorn 74 wins, one draw
Last time: St Kilda 10.14 (74) d Hawthorn 7.7 (49), round 19, 2009 at Aurora Stadium
MISSING IN ACTION
St Kilda
David Armitage (knee) - indefinite
Raphael Clarke (hamstring) - test*
Robert Eddy (knee) - test*
Steven King (hamstring) - indefinite
Ben McEvoy (knee) - indefinite
Jesse Smith (ankle) - season*
*Estimate only. Club has not provided official timeframe
Hawthorn
Max Bailey (knee) - TBC
Lance Franklin (ankle) - test
Rhan Hooper (hamstring) - 1 week
FORM
St Kilda: WWWWL
Hawthorn: WWWLW
SUMMARY
This match will shape the final eight. The Hawks are in seventh and climbing, while St Kilda is in third, only half a game off top spot.
Hawthorn has not put a foot wrong over the past two months. Its only loss was a narrow one to Geelong, which is nothing to be ashamed of. Over that same period, the Saints’ only failure came last week against Collingwood. But it was the way St Kilda lost that would be most concerning. The team kicked an ugly 6.16 and coach Ross Lyon has spoken publically about the need to improve the team’s attack.
Nick Riewoldt is still finding his way after a long absence and Justin Koschitzke is in a form slump. Up the other end of the ground, you’ll find there are more than a couple of similarities between Koschitzke and Jarryd Roughead who has also been out of sorts lately, while Lance Franklin should make a return from the ankle injury that sidelined him last week.Hawthorn has not put a foot wrong over the past two months. Its only loss was a narrow one to Geelong, which is nothing to be ashamed of. Over that same period, the Saints’ only failure came last week against Collingwood. But it was the way St Kilda lost that would be most concerning. The team kicked an ugly 6.16 and coach Ross Lyon has spoken publically about the need to improve the team’s attack.
PLAYER TO WATCH
Leigh Montagna’s pace and disposal by foot make him one of the more damaging parts of the St Kilda midfield. He has been the Saints’ most consistent player over the past two months and is a key factor in the battle between the two star midfields.
With his ankle giving him no grief, Lance Franklin will be eager to perform, but he knows it won’t be easy. Franklin has a lower goal average against the Saints than any other team with just 12 majors from seven games.
QUESTION MARKS
Is Nick Riewoldt at full strength? The Saints skipper has taken some time to find his way, but his game time is gradually increasing as is his fitness and with that, confidence.
Is Brad Sewell’s spot safe? He hasn’t had the greatest season but he was omitted last week, only to earn a recall when Franklin pulled out. He responded with 39 possessions.
WHO WILL WIN AND WHY?
The Hawks are technically only in the middle rungs of the ladder but many are expecting them to rise. They have claimed some big scalps along the way and are capable of taking the Saints. But St Kilda’s game last week was an aberration and they take a lot of pride in their performance. Expect them to come out strongly in this one and get back on the winners list.
PREDICTION:
St Kilda by 18 points.
Chat with host Mark Conway and other fans in the AFL Match Centre on afl.com.au from 7.10pm AEST Saturday or join the conversation on Twitter: #aflsaintshawks
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
