1. St Kilda
76 points (19 wins, no losses), 163.76 per cent
The run home:
Rd 20: Essendon at Docklands
Rd 21: North Melbourne at Docklands
Rd 22: Melbourne at the MCG
Having beaten Hawthorn with a virtual B-team, the Saints are well placed to complete the first unbeaten home-and-away season since Collingwood's in 1929. Geelong's loss on Friday night means top spot is assured unless the Saints are somehow thumped in all three remaining games.
2. Geelong
64 points (16 wins, three losses) 129.80 per cent
The run home:
Rd 20: Sydney Swans at ANZ Stadium
Rd 21: Western Bulldogs at Docklands
Rd 22: Fremantle at Skilled Stadium
Injuries continue to batter the Cats, who are now near certain to finish second – three games behind the Saints and three games ahead of the Pies. That means two of the three remaining games can be considered tune-ups. They'd want to prove their finals mettle by beating the Bulldogs.
3. Collingwood
52 points (13 wins, six losses) 118.30 per cent
The run home:
Rd 20: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 21: Sydney Swans at the MCG
Rd 22: Western Bulldogs at Docklands
Another fine interstate result sees the Pies climb to their highest position of the season. Beating the Tigers and Swans should be enough to guarantee a qualifying final.
4. Western Bulldogs
48 points (12 wins, seven losses) 122.68 per cent
The run home:
Rd 20: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Rd 21: Geelong at Docklands
Rd 22: Collingwood at Docklands
Saturday's loss to West Coast was the Bulldogs' worst of the season, and it could cost them the double chance. The remaining three matches will tell us a lot about the legitimacy of the Bullies' flag claims. If they finish in the top four after this run home, they will have earned it.
5. Brisbane Lions
46 points (11 wins, seven losses, one draw) 107.61 per cent
The run home:
Rd 20: Western Bulldogs at the Gabba
Rd 21: Port Adelaide at the Gabba
Rd 22: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Saturday's two points make the Lions slim favourites to replace the Bulldogs in fourth spot. Even if Michael Voss's side loses to the Dogs at home this week, the Power and Swans games should be wins. By contrast, the Bullies have twin peaks to climb in Geelong and Collingwood.
6. Carlton
44 points (11 wins, eight losses), 110.26 per cent
The run home:
Rd 20: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 21: Melbourne at Docklands
Rd 22: Adelaide at Docklands
Friday's upset win breathes life into the Blues' hopes of stealing fourth place. More realistically, they will finish fifth, sixth or seventh. One more win will guarantee their first finals campaign in eight years, and that should come at Docklands in round 21, if not next week against the inconsistent Power.
7. Adelaide
44 points (11 wins, eight losses), 109.04 per cent
The run home:
Rd 20: Hawthorn at the MCG
Rd 21: West Coast at AAMI Stadium
Rd 22: Carlton at Docklands
Three losses in four games makes the Crows' recent record the worst of any team in the eight. While their top-four dreams are in tatters, downing West Coast at home in a fortnight's time will be enough to secure a finals spot.
8. Port Adelaide
36 points (nine wins, 10 losses) 90.69 per cent
The run home:
Rd 20: Carlton at AAMI Stadium
Rd 21: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Rd 22: North Melbourne at AAMI Stadium
Beat the reigning premiers one week, then crumble to the league's second-bottom side the next – such is life in season 2009 for the Power. Sunday's thumping by Fremantle extended their win-loss-win-loss sequence to seven straight games – hardly the stuff of which finals campaigns are made. Only poor form elsewhere keeps Port in the eight. Only three straight wins will guarantee they stay there.
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9. Essendon
34 points (eight wins, 10 losses, one draw) 99.33 per cent
The run home:
Rd 20: St Kilda at Docklands
Rd 21: Fremantle at Subiaco
Rd 22: Hawthorn at the MCG
Daniel Bradshaw's goal after the siren on Saturday continued a miserable month for the Dons, after costly losses to Richmond and West Coast. The draw means superior percentage won't help them anymore. Instead, they must now win one more game than the Power – which with these three fixtures could be difficult.
10. Sydney Swans
32 points (eight wins, 11 losses) 95.11 per cent
The run home:
Rd 20: Geelong at ANZ Stadium
Rd 21: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 22: Brisbane Lions at the SCG
Sunday's easy win lifts the Swans ahead of Hawthorn, and Port Adelaide's loss keeps the eight within reach. But games against mighty Geelong and the finals-bound Pies and Lions lie ahead, presenting huge obstacles to a late finals charge. How different this picture would look if Paul Roos' side had managed to hold on for a shock win over St Kilda in round 18.
11. Hawthorn
32 points (eight wins, 11 losses) 91.41 per cent
The run home:
Rd 20: Adelaide at the MCG
Rd 21: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 22: Essendon at the MCG
The losses keep coming but only four points stand between Hawthorn and the top eight. In fact, of the four sides in contention for eighth place, the Hawks' run home is now the friendliest. On form, Port could easily lose to one or both of Carlton and the Lions. If, as expected, Essendon falls to St Kilda and the Swans to Geelong, the Hawks could yet sweep into the finals. That would prevent them becoming the first flag holders since Adelaide in 1999 to miss the finals the following year.
What are you doing this September? Find out with afl.com.au's ladder predictor
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
