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PREDICTING the future is the hardest task in football.
Yet most seem convinced Greater Western Sydney is on the road to football domination, despite being in the same position on the ladder after round six as they were in 2015.
The Giants have used their list establishment rules so well that even if they finished in the top four this season, or even won a premiership, they would take three first-round draft picks (or the points equivalent) into the 2016 NAB AFL Draft.
That is three first-round draft picks to add to the 22 first-round picks already on the list (if you include the four 'first-rounders' it recruited from other clubs).
About 10 per cent of the first-round draft picks spread around the 18 clubs sit on the Giants' list.
So those establishing the club did well, recruiting young talent from other clubs that are coming into their prime now such as Tom Scully, Callan Ward and Phil Davis.
The Giants also took advantage of the fact other clubs didn't want Shane Mumford, Ryan Griffen, Steve Johnson and Heath Shaw and made them feel at home.
Ryan Griffen and Steve Johnson are all smiles since joining the Giants. Picture: AFL Media
They have also grabbed a few players others had the chance to snag such as West Australian Rory Lobb, at pick No.29 in the 2013 NAB AFL Draft.
So strong is their access to talent that only two of the 12 players they have selected by pick No.13 in the past four drafts are in the team.
Four have been traded, Cam McCarthy is sitting out the year, three are unfortunately injured and the two latest picks are playing in the NEAFL.
Other clubs would have trouble explaining why four years of high picks had, to date, yielded just two senior players (and a bit of trade currency).
The Giants came under fire for trading Tom Boyd, but beyond that they have not seemed to have to explain their choices to the same extent as other clubs.
In fact they have had so much talent, 22 former players are at other AFL clubs, with former Suns spread beyond the Gold Coast totaling just seven.
All of the above probably explains why even normally mild-mannered recruiters are having a conniption about the Riverina being in the Giants' academy zone.
GWS chairman threatens to quit over Riverina debate
They can see that turning the Riverina talent tap on will make the gap between their clubs and the Giants so wide it will never be bridged.
One recruiter told AFL.com.au on Wednesday the debate would stop as soon as the AFL took the Riverina region out of the GWS academy zone.
Of course, Giants CEO Dave Matthews sees things quite differently.
"I don't see it as exclusive access. I see it as a development program," Matthews told SEN on Wednesday.
"What gets lost is that there is a bidding system in place so any talent that comes through is listed at fair value."
He can see some roadblocks around the corner for the Giants, with free agency a real danger to their seemingly never-ending source of talent.
In 2019, when players such as Dylan Shiel, Jeremy Cameron and Devon Smith (who are not even included in the 22 first-round draft picks) are eligible to become free agents, you can imagine the race for their signatures.
It will be hard, hostile and perhaps tempting for the players, particularly if the club is set up and a premiership is in the bag.
That is when turning the Riverina tap to flood the Giants might become necessary.
But right now, it seems, if the recruiters' predictions are right, a luxury that few supporters can understand.
The clubs signed off on the list concession rules but are beginning to feel, in the words of Melbourne coach Paul Roos, "enough is enough".
It's a Giant debate that has to happen.
But one that must take in the big picture if the game is to flourish and a national footprint established.
