That is the question that the Bulldogs will have been working on since they knew Collingwood would be their first-up finals opponents.
What won't work is doing what they've been doing recently. Looking at the way the Dogs are going, the way the Magpies are going, and the injury lists, the Pies are probably in eight- to 10-goal better shape.
What might work - and it's only a 'might', given the above statement - is to get rid of the current 'attack at all costs' game plan and try what they tried against St Kilda back in round six, holding onto the ball at all costs and moving it laterally while trying to find a hole in the wall.
The eighth-placed Dogs didn't win that game, but they ran the third-placed Saints to three points, losing after being outscored three goals to zip in the last. The Dogs structured a 'just for today' game plan then and they need to do it again this weekend.
The Magpie playing stocks run deep, while the Dogs have massive injury problems - Adam Cooney is probably the Dogs' most important player and he's not there, Dale Morris their most important stopper and he's not there. So I think they need an element of surprise - Brian Lake forward is not a huge shock, but it probably has to be tried at some stage. Can they afford to do that with Morris out? It's a fair question, but I think it's part of the rolling-the-dice attitude they have to have. Mitch Hahn would have to go back to cover.
What the Dogs simply can't afford is to be blown out of the water early - the longer they're in the game the better, because the weight of expectation on Collingwood becomes enormous. So if it was level at half time in a low-scoring game, that would be a huge win for the Dogs, because that would be very different to their regular gameplan.
Ugly as it sounds, four goals to five at the half, six goals to seven at the last change would be terrific for them. They could then roll the dice in the last - which they didn't do against the Saints - and try to outscore them. So playing conservatively, playing tempo, could get a huge amount of pressure onto the raging favourites, and pressure can get inside heads and cause problems.
Dane Swan leads the competition for possessions, and he likes playing the Dogs - 31 possessions and three goals the first time they played this year, and 35 disposals and a goal with nine inside-50s the second time. The Dogs haven't played their No.1 stopper - Liam Picken - on him, but I think they just have to try him.
Travis Cloke is a big issue for them with no Morris in the side. That means either Lake or Tom Williams, probably the latter. Everyone talks about Cloke's inaccuracy, but there's not a lot of focus on the fact that he's the No.1 contested mark in the comp, and No.1 for inside-50s for a key forward, so he's massively important.
Tackling is an area where Collingwood will see themselves having a huge advantage - they're No.1, the Dogs are dead last, with 13 less per game. The Dogs simply have to find something they haven't found all year and just tackle, tackle, tackle. They must have their best tackling game of the season to have a chance. Is it different? Yes it is.
The ruck battle will be massive - Darren Jolly has kicked 21 goals (12 since round 14), and the Dogs can't afford to have him kick multiple goals. I'd be tempted to have Ben Hudson go to him - his advantage will be second efforts and clearances and work round the ground. I'd pretty much use Will Minson as a tagger on Leigh Brown - go onto the ground together, go off for a rest together. Brown will be looking to exploit Minson's lack of defensive ability, but Will has to then try to beat Brown in the ruck duels and then also work back the other way, exploit him for a goal or two. That would make Will - who has played just one game since round 14 - a massive weapon. The lack of games makes him a risk, so it's often good to keep it simple, and for Will, that should be: 'Leigh Brown's yours'.
Contested possessions - from rounds one to 19, the Dogs were top of the pops in this category, but then they fell off a cliff because of form, injury, flu, etc, and the Pies have taken over. If the Pies win this one on Saturday night, they will expose the Dogs' lack of depth and their forward line, so the Dogs simply must win this.
The Pies are the No.1 side in scoring from forward pressure - they do it to all sides. As I said earlier, the Dogs love to free-flow, but they're going to have to pull that back and work their way out of defence for most of the game, maybe going back to the regular gameplan in the last.
The last thing to consider is that they're saying that there will possibly be enormous amounts of rain for Saturday afternoon and night. If you're the Dogs, you're going to love this because it's a major point of difference to most of the year, and that might give you an edge by providing another unusual element. Don't be pretty, be effective. It's a game of yards in the wet.
So, to summarise, the Dogs have to change things around, and hope they can stay in it, which brings huge pressure - finals pressure - back to the Pies. It might not work, but they have to try something.
The views in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
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