HAWTHORN is the most skilful team in the competition. The Hawks like to maintain possession, use players in uncontested situations and find efficient ways to score. The Sydney Swans thrive by applying pressure on all fronts, forcing turnovers and then scoring as a result. 

The team that can have its way – that is, force the game to be played on its terms – will win. 

When the Swans beat the Hawks in round eight at ANZ Stadium, they harassed them into regularly coughing up the ball. When Hawthorn turned the tables, in round 18 at the MCG, it mostly controlled play and smashed the Swans in uncontested possession. 

The two teams play similarly, but what’s critical is the differential in what the two are best at.

The Swans are in really good form and playing with a lot of confidence. But one of their weaknesses is the fact they have not played a lot together, as a team. Forwards Lance Franklin and Kurt Tippett haven’t played a lot together, and they haven’t played a lot with their teammates. You can only test how critical that factor is when they're under severe pressure.

The connections between key players aren't as strong as what they are at Hawthorn. The Hawks have spent a lot of time together, especially in big games. Luke Hodge, Sam Mitchell and Shaun Burgoyne know what to do in tight situations, as they can anticipate each other’s movements. 

The Grand Final will end up a midfield battle because both forward lines are far too good for the respective defences. If either defence finds itself having to compete one-on-one with the forwards, it’ll get badly beaten. So the onus is on the mids to help and protect their defence. This can be done in two ways.

First, they have to win the clearances and have the game played in their forward half. Second, they have to quickly flood back and support the defence when they lose possession.

 

Hawthorn is far more efficient at moving the ball inside 50 and converting entries. The Swans are far better at gut running from end-to end; they can run from defensive 50 to forward 50 to create an extra number behind the ball and support their defence. Or they can run ahead of the ball to absorb the opposition’s extra numbers and give the forwards a greater opportunity to win the ball one-on-one.

   

The Hawthorn forwards are more efficient – they find more ways to score: they can mark the ball on a lead or in a pack, they can crumb the ball and they can create second-effort opportunities. 

The Swans forwards are far more predictable as individuals, but they’re still very good at their business. They have genuine class and are super-dangerous, particularly when it comes to contested marking.

The Hawks this year have been a lot more flexible in their midfield set-up, with many of their forwards rotating on the ball. This enables them to create more unpredictable match-ups in their forward line. They can also change the playing environment very quickly.

The game will be played at two speeds: we’ll see fast ball movement from electric counter-attacks to beat the press, or very slow ball movement to arrest momentum (which is linked to controlling possession and scoring). When one team is up against it and wants to stop the other’s momentum, it will aim to possess the ball and slow things down. The Hawks do this very well; they will often give up ground to maintain possession.

 

Hawthorn’s greatest strength is also its greatest weakness; it can be too mechanical and systematic when under severe pressure and trying to stop the opposition’s momentum. This focus on controlling possession and arresting momentum can slow its ball movement down to a level where it stifles its ability to score, while also creating opportunities for the opposition to create turnovers.

The Swans are more instinctive and they’ll take the game on more, using their running half-backs and midfielders, utilising any free players available and getting the ball quickly into their forwards. It’s a style similar to the instinctive one the Cats were able to successfully use against the Hawks when they dominated them.

The clearances are so critical to this game. Both teams are great at applying the forward press, making it very difficult for the opposition to move the ball from defensive 50 to forward 50. The Hawks are the best in the business at moving the ball end to end. In this game, they will have to be at their very best. 

History shows effective kick-ins are vital in Grand Finals. Turnovers can not only create a six-point deficit, but also eat into the team’s confidence.

 

X-factor: Don't underestimate home ground advantage. The Swans have dined out playing at ANZ Stadium against teams not familiar with the ground. But the Grand Final is played at a ground Hawthorn lives and breathes on. It’s a major issue, as familiarity with your home ground assists accuracy. 

You don't want the Grim Reaper of bad goalkicking to cost you a Grand Final. Just ask Fremantle about accuracy in last year’s Grand Final.