Collingwoodfc.com.au has enlisted the help of David Natoli aka DaVe86, who has shot to internet fame for his in-depth Magpie tactical previews.
Since publishing his first report on Nick's Bulletin Board in early 2008, DaVe86 has become a weekly favourite among the passionate online Magpie Army receiving thousands of views for each article.
The articles are lengthy and have been published in their entirety as the club did not want to hinder DaVe86's creativity during the writing process.
The views expressed in DaVe86's previews are solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Collingwood Football Club.
DaVe86's previews will be published throughout the club's finals campaign.
It’s hard to believe that we have reached the end of yet another football season. Grand Final week is always so exciting, but obviously this year has extra feeling for me considering my beloved Magpies will be playing off for their first flag in 20 years.
For a neutral fan, it is fair to say the prospect of a Collingwood victory would be causing quite a few nightmares this week. Those fears are justified, because if the Magpies win the flag this weekend, the large supporter base could become quite unbearable. However, let’s not forget the Saints also have a large support base, and they can be equally as unbearable when their side is up and about. Both sides have been starved for success. In some respects, the Saints would have even more reason to celebrate considering it has been half a century since their last flag, and they came agonisingly close last year to breaking the drought.
As always, tickets have been very hard to come by. For those that have been lucky enough to score tickets, please cheer extra loud for me and all those supporters who have missed out.
Turning the focus onto the game, and it is very hard to pick a winner. Collingwood is likely to go in favourites following its annihilation of the reigning premiers Geelong. However, St.Kilda has been terrific in the finals and has recent Grand Final experience to fall back on. Importantly, both Cloke and Riewoldt found some accuracy in front of goal last week, which has really been the missing ingredient for both forward lines in the lead-up to September.
Weather is unlikely to play a factor. The forecast is for an overcast day, with a top temperature of 20 degrees. There is no talk of rain as I write this preview. This would probably suit St.Kilda. Against both Geelong and the Bulldogs, they played their best footy when it was not raining. The rain lessens the impact of Riewoldt and Kosi to some extent.
Much of the discussion this week will surround St.Kilda’s loss to Geelong in last year’s Grand Final. We’ve seen in recent years teams like Geelong and West Coast bounce back from a Grand Final defeat with extra hunger and desire to never experience that feeling again. This may give the Saints a slight edge. Further, the experience of dealing with the circus that is Grand Final week will hold the Saints in good stead.
On the other hand, Collingwood has played every game over the last three months at the MCG, with an average crowd of around 70,000. Despite so much inexperience on the list, the team was not overawed by the big stage in front of 95,000 people against Geelong in the preliminary. Malthouse has been in this position numerous times before. The two new recruits have Grand Final experience and a few others were there in 2002/2003. There is no reason to suggest that Collingwood will be out of its depth on Saturday.
The other focus of the week has surrounded the fitness of key players from both camps. Nick Dal Santo and Jason Gram were sore after the preliminary final win and trained lightly early in the week. Both will be available to play. The biggest question mark surrounds Luke Ball. I watched Ball train on Wednesday morning and there was absolutely no sign of injury. His hamstring was not strapped, he did all the stretches and running drills and had a focussed look on his face. He did not push, but he seems a certain starter at this stage.
Thankfully we have a Grand Final whereby both sides will be full strength. Therefore, the winner will be a deserved one.
So let’s get into the nitty gritty of the big match on Saturday.
The Path to the Grand Final
Both Collingwood and St.Kilda have been the best two sides in September, and it is clearly a clash between the two strongest and fittest sides in the comp. Both teams have beaten Geelong and the Western Bulldogs to get to the Grand Final.
The only concern for St.Kilda would be that it hasn’t put together a four quarter performance in the finals series. They started strongly against Geelong, but were left clawing onto their lead in the second half. In stark contrast, the Saints actually started slow against the Bulldogs but a seven goal third quarter put the game away.
On the other hand, Collingwood has put both the Western Bulldogs and Geelong away very early with electrifying starts. No doubt it is the first quarter which is setting Collingwood’s victories up at the moment. The Pies don’t relent either, ensuring the intensity is switched on for four quarters.
My only concern is that at least the Saints have had the experience of a tight finish in finals. It is very hard to blow St.Kilda away, so this game could come down to the wire. In tight finishes against both Adelaide and Hawthorn, the Magpies were very jittery in front of goal.
The Last encounter....what did we learn?
Collingwood snapped a four game losing streak to St.Kilda in Round 16 with a convincing 48 point victory. Importantly, the Pies scored 100 points, which would give them real confidence considering they were only averaging 51 points in the previous four encounters.
St.Kilda were close to full strength, but were without Dal Santo. Further, Riewoldt and Gram were still far from match fit as they returned from serious injuries. There were also rumours that St.Kilda was loading its training regime ahead of the finals series. So I highly doubt Collingwood is a 48 point better side than St.Kilda.
That said, the Pies were able to expose St.Kilda for a lack of pace and were not cramped up by its zoning tactics. No doubt the instruction from Malthouse this week will be to take the game on from half back. If the Saints are able to lock the game up and it becomes a scrap, Collingwood has to remain patient and hit every contest with relentless pressure as it did in Round 16.
At the Selection Table
It is hard seeing either team making too many changes, although there are a number of players really pushing for selection.
For St.Kilda, will Lyon take the punt on Baker? I can’t see it happening. Lyon may also consider Armitage or Geary for extra midfield grunt. I personally think they will name an unchanged line-up.
Collingwood on the other hand could potentially make two changes to a side that smashed the reigning premiers a week ago. Prestigiacomo is clearly the better match-up for Riewoldt, whilst Leon Davis will come into contention again. The two guys that are in the firing line are Nathan Brown and Goldsack. Neither did much wrong against Geelong.
Having said that, it is highly unlikely Malthouse will make any changes either. Davis has not shown strong enough form. However, if I were Mick, I would make the big call on Presti and bring him into the side. He is definitely fit (he stayed back doing extra work at training). I can’t recall a game this year where Collingwood has not made at least one change to the side, so Malthouse will not fear making a change if necessary.
A look at St.Kilda
Say what you will about the Saints, but you have to give them credit for the way they have approached 2010. All seemed to be going down-hill pre-season when Luke Ball walked out on the club, and high profile recruit Lovett was arrested. Then, by round three, the Saints lost their in-form skipper in Nick Riewoldt.
Although their form was patchy all season, they have peaked at the right time. They have a full list. Though they never benefited from the services of Lovett, Brett Peake has come on strong in the finals and is adding the missing pace they were craving. It is a real sign of mental toughness and a credit to their game-plan that they were still able to finish top four and get their game going in time for finals.
The one thing I have noticed about St.Kilda over the last two months is that they are attacking with a lot more purpose. Perhaps it is the availability of Nick Riewoldt, but there is no doubt the Saints are kicking more goals and are willing to take the game on more.
A look at Collingwood
The availability of Luke Ball is a huge factor for Collingwood. Clearances are going to be vital. As I continue to say, the only way the Collingwood forward press can work is if Collingwood is moving the ball forward. This all starts with Luke Ball around the stoppages.
Saints enjoy getting numbers back and enjoy sides booting it long to contests. Winning from clearances and quick ball movement ensures St.Kilda defenders are left exposed. This is how sides have beaten the Saints this year. As a unit, St.Kilda is has a fantastic defence. One on one, they can be beaten.
Collingwood will obviously look to get Nick Maxwell loose across half-back to cover Riewoldt. St.Kilda may look to put a forward defender on him. However, the Saints are more likely to start with Sam Gilbert loose across their own defence.
The real strength for Collingwood is how good its hands are in close. I’m continuously amazed at how quick they can dish off a handball under extreme pressure, and always to a team mate’s advantage. This is going to be vital on Saturday considering the likely contested nature of the game.
5 reasons why the Saints can win
- Riewoldt, Kosi, Milne and Schneider are all multiple goal-kickers and are a more dangerous forward-line on paper than Collingwood’s
- Ability to shut down Collingwood’s run and the better designated tagger.
- Unlike Western Bulldogs and Geelong, St.Kilda has big attacking ruckmen that could give Jolly and Brown something to think about.
- St.Kilda’s top four midfielders are more skilful than Collingwood’s top four
- St.Kilda has more experience on the list
5 reasons why Collingwood can win
- Collingwood has a much better spread of goal-kickers. Although the Saints possess four really dangerous targets, Collingwood typically has 10 or more players who kick goals. They are also a lot more effective from turn-overs, and spread better than St.Kilda
- More pace
- Despite inexperience, I think Collingwood’s 22 is more even than St.Kilda’s. This will be more telling as the match goes on and Collingwood’s rotations begin to hit full swing.
- Have played far more footy on the MCG and much more big game experience in 2010.
- More consistent form over the last few months.
Match-Ups
St.Kilda forward line:
Nick Riewoldt v Nathan Brown/Simon Prestigiacomo - As I said, I would prefer Presti to play and take this match-up. He has a much better record against Roo. It will be interesting to see how Collingwood play Riewoldt. Personally, I believe that if Riewoldt wants to lead high up the ground then he should be allowed. If his opponent tries to follow, they will tire out and Riewoldt will push back to the forward line too quickly. If Riewoldt wants to chase kicks up the field then so be it. As long as he is well guarded inside 50.
Justin Koschitzke v Ben Reid - Kosi has returned to form of late. He is taking good marks and kicking goals again...particularly early in the game. Reid may not have the strength body-to-body which is a concern. However, he should peel off Kosi nicely and will also look to cover for Riewoldt.
Stephen Milne v Harry O’Brien - This traditional match-up could well be a defining one on Saturday. Milne’s finals form has been terrific...as has O’Brien’s. For the Saints to win, you feel they need a good return from their two dangerous smalls. O’Brien typically does a good job on Milne, but is prone to an occasional lapse. Importantly, Milne has to be wary of Harry on the counter-attack, which is where O’Brien is at his most dangerous.
Adam Schneider v Alan Toovey - Schneider is a former premiership player and another Saint in terrific finals form. He is the other dangerous small forward for the Saints and a real key to the game. Realistically, if Collingwood can shut down the four St.Kilda forwards, there is not a lot of goal-kicking power else-where.
Andrew McQualter v Heath Shaw - The Saints will likely put a forward tag on Heath Shaw to limit his influence. Shaw has returned to defence for the finals series and has been terrific in the opening two rounds. McQualter’s spot is never assured, however his defensive pressure is always of a high standard and he’ll play a role for St.Kilda on Grand Final day.
Key Player: Nick Maxwell
Will the Saints tag him, or will they play their own loose man in defence??? I think it will fluctuate depending on what tempo the Saints want to play at. If they are happy to lock the game down, then they are likely to leave Maxwell loose and get their own numbers back. If they are looking to score, then someone like Eddy may go forward and forward tag Maxwell. The Saints won’t want to crowd their forward line too much, however Maxwell’s primary role will be to cover Nick Riewoldt. Nick has led from the front so far this finals series, but has not been tagged heavily as yet.
The Midfield
The midfield match-ups are going to fluctuate a lot. However, most of the focus will be who is responsible for certain players around stoppages.
Lenny Hayes v Luke Ball - These two are the main extractors for their respective clubs, and will go head-to-head from the opening bounce. Around the ground, Malthouse may use Ben Johnson to run with Hayes, especially since Ball is suffering a hamstring complaint. However, from the contests, this will be an enthralling battle. Both know how each other play, and both will not take a back-wards step.
Nick Dal Santo v Scott Pendlebury - Two similar style players who are likely to square off against each other around the stoppages. Pendlebury is particularly in terrific form and I thought was one of the best players in the preliminary final. Lyon may elect to tight tag him with Clint Jones. However, I think Jones will be reserved for Didak.
Leigh Montagna v Sharrod Wellingham - I think Malthouse will look to use Wellingham defensively on Montagna who I believe is St.Kilda’s most damaging player. He breaks the lines and kicks the ball long.
Brendon Goddard v Brent Macaffer - Brent would be a good option for Goddard as he can play in multiple positions. Brendon will look to spend a lot of time across half back when the Saints want to slow the tempo. Macaffer should follow as he can take a strong mark and kick a goal. Most of Goddard’s work will be done through the middle, and Macaffer has been doing a number of midfield tagging roles over the past month. Should be an excellent match-up.
Alan Didak v Clint Jones - You would think Lyon would elect to use his best shut-down player on Collingwood’s classiest player. Didak is more taggable than Swan and perhaps more damaging. Given the heavy rotation of Collingwood midfielders, expect Jones to also spend time on Swan. Expect Didak to be given a few testing bumps early. I would not be surprised to see him start on the bench.
Dane Swan v Farren Ray - A number of players will rotate through Swan. He will spend time on Hayes and Montagna. However, Lyon may elect to use Ray in a light tag on Swan and look to work off him. Swan is a vital player on Saturday as he is the sort of player who forces the ball forward from stoppages and always kicks a goal.
Brett Peake v Ben Johnson - Don’t underestimate the value of Peake over the finals series this year. He was brilliant against Geelong and handy against the Doggies. I would use Ben Johnson in a lock-down role on him because Johnson has the pace, and is likely to exploit Peake the other way. Johnson is the un-sung hero of the Collingwood side, always working hard and generating a lot of run. If Collingwood can ensure secondary midfielders like Peake are starved of opportunity and goal-scoring chances, then the Saints may become too reliant on too few.
Dale Thomas v Sean Dempster - Dale is Collingwood’s X factor and is a big game player. I think Lyon will use Dempster in a shut down job. Thomas attracted attention in the Under 18 Grand Final with a best on ground performance, so there is no doubt he likes the big stage.
Collingwood forward line:
Travis Cloke v Jason Blake - This match-up is always a tight tussle and honours have been shared of late. The key for Collingwood is to give Cloke one-out opportunities because he is out-muscling most opponents at the moment. If Cloke kicks three, Collingwood will probably have won the game. Blake has a good motor and is strong in contests. No doubt Cloke will look to lead high up the ground to exploit Blake.
Chris Dawes v Zac Dawson - Dawes will fancy himself body to body, however Dawson gets great assistance and is in pretty good nick. He did a fine job on Barry Hall last week. Dawes needs to make his presence felt. He will be in a lot of marking contests where he is out-numbered so the key will be to bring the ball to ground and force crumbs.
Tyson Goldsack v Sam Gilbert - If Goldsack retains his spot, he could be asked to do a forward role on Gilbert. Similarly to Maxwell, Gilbert will look to establish himself as the spare man in defence. The key for Collingwood is going to be to lock the ball inside 50, which means they can’t afford to have Gilbert commanding the ball with no opponent across half back.
Steele Sidebottom v Jason Gram - If the Saints had won last year, Gram would’ve received the Norm Smith Medal. He offers real drive out of defence, and is one of the few Saints players who always takes the game on. He will look to start off a back flank and work through the centre. Sidebottom is a terrific finals player (another who won the best on ground in the Under 18 final), and has a good record against St.Kilda. With so many other Collingwood midfielders/forwards ahead of him, he will look to sneak under the radar and kick a few goals.
Key Player: Sam Fisher
With Jolly doing the bulk of the ruck, Malthouse will utilise Brown up forward a lot. The reason is that it will force the Fisher to be accountable. It will be important Brown and Dawes lead in opposite directions so they have one on one opportunities with their opponents. Ensuring he is accountable could be a massive factor on Saturday.
The Ruck
Darren Jolly v Michael Gardiner - This may be Gardiner’s last game. Either way, he presents a far greater challenge to Jolly than an unfit Ottens and Hawkins last week. Both big men will push forward and try to kick goals. Gardiner’s massive frame may intimidate Jolly, however Jolly’s ruckwork is slightly better. Considering this is going to be a game defined by stoppages, the ruck who takes control will have a massive say on the game.
Don’t discard McEvoy either. He improves with every game. He’ll spend a lot of time pushing forward, which will force Maxwell to play accountable, in a similar way Leigh Brown will go to Fisher.
The Wrap-up
Firstly, I would like to say a massive thank-you to all those that have followed my work this year. I have enjoyed it thoroughly. What started as a little blog has really grown and it has blown me away how much support I have received. Whether I continue to write these next year depends on a number of factors which are yet to be determined. Fingers crossed I can continue to write them next year.
As for the Grand Final, it should prove to be an epic. Accuracy could prove a decisive factor. The Saints were inaccurate against Collingwood in round 16, whilst the Magpies had their radar off in round three.
The start is also going to be very decisive. Collingwood has finished teams off early over the finals series, and will look to jump out of the blocks again. I think Lyon will play conservative at the start and look to control possession. Whether they can do this against Collingwood’s forward press will be interesting.
I’m going to tip Collingwood by 15 points simply because I think they have too many goal-kicking options and have been a better four-quarter side all year.
If the Magpies win, I think the Norm Smith Medallist will be Scott Pendlebury as he has won all the individual best on ground medals this year (such as the ANZAC Medal)
Thanks, and enjoy the game.
By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86
