EIGHT rounds to play, eight finals spots available, 12 teams left in the race. Not everyone's going to be happy. Welcome back to The Run Home for another thrilling conclusion to the season.
Carlton's 'signature win' over fellow finals contender Fremantle has Blues fans starting to make plans for footy in September, while their St Kilda counterparts are getting decidedly nervous.
Meanwhile, Brisbane has tumbled from the top after reigning premier Melbourne got its mojo back in an MCG hammering of the Lions on Thursday night.
LADDER PREDICTOR Where will your club finish?
Who's in the box seat, and who's facing an uphill battle to finish inside the eight? Check out your club's finish to the season below.
Adelaide, GWS, Hawthorn, Essendon, North Melbourne and West Coast have not been considered.
1. Melbourne
44 points (11 wins, three losses), 139.2 per cent
The commanding win over Brisbane on Thursday night gives the Demons some respite at the top of the ladder with a challenging draw to come. They should beat Adelaide next week but after that face some real challenges – Geelong in Geelong, Port in the Northern Territory, the Western Bulldogs, Fremantle away, Collingwood and Carlton at the MCG before another clash with Brisbane – this one at the Gabba. Clashes against the Dockers and Lions could be huge in the context of the Demons’ hopes of a top-two finish. - Callum Twomey
The run home
R16: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
R17: Geelong @ GMHBA Stadium
R18: Port Adelaide @ TIO Traeger Park
R19: Western Bulldogs @ Marvel Stadium
R20: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium
R21: Collingwood @ MCG
R22: Carlton @ MCG
R23: Brisbane @ Gabba
2. Geelong
40 points (10 wins, four losses), 125.6 per cent
With Saturday's thrilling win over the Tigers, the Cats have set themselves up brilliantly for yet another top-four finish. They only face three more current top-eight sides and have five of their final eight games on their home deck. Geelong could still challenge for the minor premiership with the round 17 showdown with Melbourne looming large. The Cats will be without suspended star Tom Stewart for at least the next three matches, but with Patrick Dangerfield set to return imminently, along with Brandan Parfitt and Gary Rohan, they appear primed for a tilt at the premiership. - Ben Sutton
The run home
R16: North Melbourne @ GMHBA Stadium
R17: Melbourne @ GMHBA Stadium
R18: Carlton @ MCG
R19: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
R20: Western Bulldogs @ GMHBA Stadium
R21: St Kilda @ GMHBA Stadium
R22: Gold Coast @ Metricon Stadium
R23: West Coast @ GMHBA Stadium
3. Brisbane
40 points (10 wins, four losses), 124.9 per cent
The Lions fell short against the Demons but will enter their next four games as favourites in a block that could set them up for a top-two finish. A home-ground advantage against the Dogs will be beneficial while they should take care of Essendon and Greater Western Sydney. They also have a very strong record against the Suns, although Gold Coast will be eyeing a finals spot by then as well. The final month of the season looms as the Lions’ top-four deal-maker or breaker with several tough games. - Callum Twomey
LADDER PREDICTOR Where will your club finish?
The run home
R16: Western Bulldogs @ Gabba
R17: Essendon @ Gabba
R18: Greater Western Sydney @ Manuka Oval
R19: Gold Coast @ Gabba
R20: Richmond @ MCG
R21: Carlton @ Gabba
R22: St Kilda @ Marvel Stadium
R23: Melbourne @ Gabba
4. Fremantle
40 points (10 wins, four losses), 122.6 per cent
A month after proving they can beat a contender in Melbourne, the Dockers were one of the more disappointing sides of round 15, proving no match for the Blues on Saturday. They face one of the toughest runs home in the competition with the next six games against sides either in the eight or still in contention to play in September. Justin Longmuir’s side finishes with an attractive final fortnight of the home and away season against West Coast and Greater Western Sydney, but need to defeat Port Adelaide at home next weekend to remain in the hunt for a double chance. The Dockers then return to Marvel Stadium to face an out-of-form St Kilda who have dropped three on the trot. - Josh Gabelich
The run home
R16: Port Adelaide @ Optus Stadium
R17: St Kilda @ Marvel Stadium
R18: Sydney @ Optus Stadium
R19: Richmond @ Marvel Stadium
R20: Melbourne @ Optus Stadium
R21: Western Bulldogs @ Marvel Stadium
R22: West Coast @ Optus Stadium
R23: Greater Western Sydney @ Manuka Oval
5. Carlton
40 points (10 wins, four losses), 114.6 per cent
The Blues banked a crucial win over top-four rival Fremantle at Marvel Stadium on Saturday to keep their double-chance aspirations alive. Carlton momentarily returned to the top four but are now only out on percentage. With a brutal final three rounds of the fixture, Michael Voss’ side must beat an out-of-form St Kilda and West Coast in Perth across the next fortnight to maintain its charge for the top-four. Carlton hasn’t played finals since 2013 but it should only need to win three of the final eight games to secure a return to September. A final-round clash against arch rival Collingwood could determine where the Blues finish in the eight. - Josh Gabelich
The run home
R16: St Kilda @ Marvel Stadium
R17: West Coast @ Optus Stadium
R18: Geelong @ MCG
R19: Greater Western Sydney @ Marvel Stadium
R20: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
R21: Brisbane @ Gabba
R22: Melbourne @ MCG
R23: Collingwood @ MCG
6. Sydney
36 points (nine wins, five losses), 119.5 per cent
The Swans reinforced their grip on a top-eight berth with their 51-point win over St Kilda, having invited criticism with their round 14 loss to Port Adelaide. The victory helped Sydney move four points ahead of Richmond and the Saints before a winnable game against Essendon. The top four isn’t out of the equation for the Swans, given their run home either as they will fancy their chances in all of their remaining home games. – Ben Somerford
LADDER PREDICTOR Where will your club finish?
The run home
R16: Essendon @ MCG
R17: Western Bulldogs @ SCG
R18: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium
R19: Adelaide @ SCG
R20: Greater Western Sydney @ SCG
R21: North Melbourne @ Marvel Stadium
R22: Collingwood @ SCG
R23: St Kilda @ Marvel Stadium
7. Collingwood
36 points (nine wins, five losses), 106.0 per cent
Fresh from a gutsy win over GWS at the MCG, the Pies face a date against the Suns at Metricon Stadium on Saturday night, which is probably a 50-50 game. After that, they come up against four teams in the bottom eight in consecutive weeks. With North Melbourne, Adelaide, Essendon and Port Adelaide on the cards, the Pies should win – and must win – the first three. The Pies' final three weeks – Melbourne, Sydney and Carlton – are tough, so they must cash in over the next five if they are to return to September action. - Trent Masenhelder
The run home
R16: Gold Coast @ Metricon Stadium
R17: North Melbourne @ MCG
R18: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
R19: Essendon @ MCG
R20: Port Adelaide @ MCG
R21: Melbourne @ MCG
R22: Sydney @ SCG
R23: Carlton @ MCG
8. Western Bulldogs
32 points (eight wins, six losses), 120.9 per cent
The win against Hawthorn was crucial to Western Bulldogs' finals hopes, considering its tough run to come. Consecutive away trips to Brisbane and Sydney loom as difficult propositions, while reigning premier Melbourne is made marginally easier by being played at Marvel Stadium. Four of the Dogs' final eight matches are at their home base, meaning securing those wins will be crucial considering the logjam in the top eight at the moment. - Sarah Black
The run home
R16: Brisbane @ Gabba
R17: Sydny @ SCG
R18: St Kilda @ Marvel Stadium
R19: Melbourne @ Marvel Stadium
R20: Geelong @ GMHBA Stadium
R21: Fremantle @ Marvel Stadium
R22: Greater Western Sydney @ Marvel Stadium
R23: Hawthorn @ UTAS Stadium
9. Richmond
32 points (eight wins, six losses), 116.2 per cent
The Tigers missed a golden chance to close the gap on the top four with Saturday's heartbreaking loss to the Cats. The good news is they have a relatively good run home with only two matches against two top-eight sides – both of which are in Melbourne. Tricky clashes against Gold Coast and Port Adelaide on the road will be crucial, but the Tigers should do enough to make finals and no one will want to face them in September. - Ben Sutton
LADDER PREDICTOR Where will your club finish?
The run home
R16: West Coast @ MCG
R17: Gold Coast @ Metricon Stadium
R18: North Melbourne @ Marvel Stadium
R19: Fremantle @ Marvel Stadium
R20: Brisbane @ MCG
R21: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
R22: Hawthorn @ MCG
R23: Essendon @ MCG
10. St Kilda
32 points (eight wins, six losses), 107.3 per cent
The Saints have slipped outside the top eight following three straight defeats, with Jack Steele's return from injury failing to help garner a response in their 51-point loss to Sydney. Paddy Ryder and Brad Hill should both be available for next round's must-win clash against Carlton which is the first of three crucial games against top-eight sides, along with Fremantle and the Western Bulldogs which will likely define their finals fate. The draw looks tough on paper for St Kilda, but six of their remaining eight games are at their preferred Marvel Stadium. – Ben Somerford
NINE THINGS WE LEARNED The Saints' doubters were right
The run home
R16: Carlton @ Marvel Stadium
R17: Fremantle @ Marvel Stadium
R18: Western Bulldogs @ Marvel Stadium
R19: West Coast @ Optus Stadium
R20: Hawthorn @ Marvel Stadium
R21: Geelong @ GMHBA Stadium
R22: Brisbane @ Marvel Stadium
R23: Sydney @ Marvel Stadium
11. Gold Coast
28 points (seven wins, seven losses), 110.5 per cent
After the nailbiting loss to Port Adelaide, the next fortnight could decide whether the Suns play finals for the first time in club history or not. Currently a win plus percentage outside the eight, they face Collingwood and Richmond at Metricon Stadium – which could draw the biggest crowds for many years at the venue – in the next two weeks, with wins almost essential to keep the finals dream alive. - Michael Whiting
The run home
R16: Collingwood @ Metricon Stadium
R17: Richmond @ Metricon Stadium
R18: Essendon @ Marvel Stadium
R19: Brisbane @ Gabba
R20: West Coast @ Metricon Stadium
R21: Hawthorn @ UTAS Stadium
R22: Geelong @ Metricon Stadium
R23: North Melbourne @ Marvel Stadium
12. Port Adelaide
28 points (seven wins, seven losses), 105.1 per cent
Port kept its hopes alive with a gripping two-point win over Gold Coast, but things only get more difficult from here. Ken Hinkley's men face three of the top four teams in the next month, and to be any chance of leaping into the top eight, you'd think they'd need to pocket at least two wins against the heavy hitters. Fremantle are coming off a loss, but have been beaten at Optus Stadium just once this season, and Port will be desperate to make it twice. - Michael Whiting
LADDER PREDICTOR Where will your club finish?
The run home
R16: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium
R17: Greater Western Sydney @ Adelaide Oval
R18: Melbourne @ TIO Traeger Park
R19: Geelong @ Adelaide Oval
R20: Collingwood @ MCG
R21: Richmond @ Adelaide Oval
R22: Essendon @ Marvel Stadium
R23: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
