THE Smithy’s VFL finals race is going right down to the wire, with six teams capable of sneaking into the top four and nine still a chance to play finals as we enter the final round.

It has taken on even more importance with Thursday's announcement that all teams who earn home finals will get them - pending being able to provide a suitable venue.

And what a crescendo we have this week.

Casey Demons face the biggest challenge to their undefeated season when they travel to meet the Brisbane Lions, who in turn need to win to hold onto second spot with Southport being shortpriced favourites against Coburg.

Sydney and Box Hill Hawks are meeting for fourth spot and the double chance, while the archest of VFL arch rivals, Collingwood and Carlton, lock horns on the MCG with a top four and a top eight spot on the line.

Gold Coast is one win away from securing a maiden VFL finals berth and Richmond needs to beat Frankston to stay alive and put all the pressure on the Blues.

And even though they can't make the finals, fierce enemies GWS and Footscray will go into battle, while Coburg, Frankston and Sandringham will look to farewell favourite sons in the perfect way - and North Melbourne also has plenty of motivation with co-captain Kade Answerth to line up for his 100th VFL game.

The gates will also be thrown open to fans at Avalon Airport Oval for the game between Werribee and Northern Bullants.

There is no shortage of action to get excited about, so strap in and prepare for a Smithy's VFL round to remember.

1^st, 17-0, 173.73%

STREAK: Won 17

LAST FIVE WEEKS: def Carlton (16, Casey Fields); bye; def Northern Bullants (91, Casey Fields); def Footscray (23, VU Whitten Oval); bye

TO COME: Brisbane Lions (11.35am Saturday, Moreton Bay Sports Complex)

IF THEY WIN: Will finish 1^st

IF THEY LOSE: Will finish 1^st

SUMMARY: Minor premiers and odds-on premiership favourites with two finals at Casey Fields, the Demons can really frank their credentials with an interstate win over the second-placed Lions.

PREDICTION: 17-1 (1^st)

2^nd, 13-4, 133.30%

STREAK: Won 2

LAST FIVE WEEKS: def Sandringham (25, Trevor Barker Beach Oval); def Werribee (12, Moreton Bay Sports Complex); def Richmond (25, Swinburne Centre); lost to Gold Coast Suns (2, Moreton Bay Sports Complex); def GWS Giants (18, Blacktown International Sports Park)

TO COME: Casey Demons (11.35am Saturday, Moreton Bay Sports Complex)

IF THEY WIN: Will finish 2^nd

IF THEY LOSE: Will finish 2^nd if Southport loses or 3^rd if the Sharks win. Can fall to 4^th if Sydney wins and makes up the 6.41% gap – about 70 points.

SUMMARY: Can show exactly what they’re made of by ending the Demons’ undefeated season at their Moreton Bay fortress, where they’ve lost just once in six years. Has the double chance locked away but would love to secure two home finals.

PREDICTION: 14-4 (2^nd)

3^rd, 12-5, 134.03%

STREAK: Lost 3

LAST FIVE WEEKS: lost to Gold Coast Suns (9, Metricon Stadium); bye; lost to Collingwood (38, Victoria Park); lost to Essendon (2, Fankhauser Reserve); def Sydney (22, Fankhauser Reserve)

TO COME: Coburg (11.35am Saturday, Fankhauser Reserve)

IF THEY WIN: Will finish 2^nd if Brisbane Lions lose, otherwise 3^rd, unless Sydney wins and makes up the 7.14% deficit (about 136 points).

IF THEY LOSE: Will finish 3^rd if Box Hill beats Sydney but can’t make up the 9.99% gap (93 points). Will be 4^th if the Swans win but could still slide to 5^th if Collingwood also wins and makes up 10.46% (135 points).

SUMMARY: It’s hard to work out what has happened at Shark Park in the past month. Two of the losses have been in thrillers, however, and it wouldn’t take much to snap out of it. They get the perfect opportunity against the Lions.

PREDICTION: 13-5 (3^rd)

4^th, 12-5, 126.89%

STREAK: Won 4

LAST FIVE WEEKS: def Collingwood (3, SCG); def North Melbourne (20, Arden Street Oval); def GWS Giants (38, SCG); def Frankston (44, Lakeside Oval Sydney); lost to Southport (22, Fankhauser Reserve)

TO COME: Box Hill Hawks (12.35pm Saturday, Box Hill City Oval)

IF THEY WIN: Will finish 2^nd if Brisbane Lions lose, Southport loses and the Swans can make up the 6.41% (63 points) deficit to the Lions, otherwise 3^rd if only one of those two happen. Will be 4^th if both Lions and Sharks win, unless the Swans win by enough to make up the 7.14% (136 points) to the Sharks.

IF THEY LOSE: Will stay 4^th if the Hawks don’t make up the 2.85% gap (14 points). Will drop to 5^th if they lose by more than 14 points. Will fall to 6^th if Collingwood wins and makes up the 5.32% (56 points) deficit to the Swans.

SUMMARY: The double chance is theirs to lose after hanging on bravely against the Magpies last week. But having to beat a strong Hawks team on their home ground means they will have well and truly earned it if they get there.

PREDICTION: 12-6 (4^th)

5^th, 11-6, 124.04%

STREAK: Won 4

LAST FIVE WEEKS: def Geelong (43, Box Hill City Oval); def Frankston (51, Skybus Stadium); bye; def Northern Bullants (56, Genis Steel Oval); def Werribee (7, Box Hill City Oval)

TO COME: Sydney (12.35pm Saturday, Box Hill City Oval)

IF THEY WIN: Will finish 3^rd if Southport loses and the Hawks can make up the 9.99% (93 points) deficit to the Sharks, which will also mean they have overtaken the Swans’ percentage. Will be 4^th if they win by roughly 14 points or more and the Sharks win or hold onto their percentage lead. Will be 5^th if they win by less than 14 points. Could drop to 6^th if Collingwood wins by enough to make up the 2.47% (28 points) deficit.

IF THEY LOSE: Will be 5^th if Collingwood and Gold Coast also lose, 6^th if one of them win and 7^th if they both win. Will also be 7^th if Carlton wins by enough to make up the 5.24% (58 points) deficit. Can drop to 8^th if Carlton does that and Richmond also wins by enough to make up 9.77% (112 points).

SUMMARY: A top four spot is theirs to grab, and they will start a narrow favourite against the Swans at home. But lose and there are a bunch of clubs waiting to pounce on their home final.

PREDICTION: 12-6 (5^th)

6^th, 11-6, 121.57%

STREAK: Lost 1

LAST FIVE WEEKS: lost to Sydney (3, SCG); def Williamstown (78, AIA Centre); def Southport (38, Victoria Park); bye; def Port Melbourne (33, ETU Stadium)

TO COME: Carlton (11.45am Sunday, MCG)

IF THEY WIN: Will finish 3^rd if Southport and Sydney both lose and they lift their percentage by 2.77% (45 points) more than the victorious Hawks do. Will be 4^th if the Sharks and/or Swans lose and they don’t make up the percentage to the Hawks. 5^th if the Sharks and Swans win. 6^th if Sharks and Hawks win and they don’t make up the percentage.

IF THEY LOSE: by roughly 16 points or less: they will be 5^th if the Hawks lose by enough to reverse the percentage gap and Gold Coast loses, 6^th if one of those happens and 7^th if neither happen. Drop each of the above finishing positions by one spot if they lose by more than 16 points. Those rankings will drop again If Richmond wins by enough to make up 7.3% (85 points). If all those results go against them, they will finish 9^th.

SUMMARY: Fell just short of regaining their top four spot last week and now faces one of the biggest VFL games of the season against their arch-rivals at the home of football, who they can eliminate from the race. Would need to be a perfect storm to miss the eight, but a similar occurrence to sneak back into the four. It’s most likely to fall somewhere in the middle.

PREDICTION: 12-6 (6^th)

7^th, 11-6, 103.56%

STREAK: Won 5

LAST FIVE WEEKS: def Southport (9, Metricon Stadium); bye; def Port Melbourne (69, Metricon Stadium); def Brisbane Lions (2, Moreton Bay Sports Complex); def Essendon (3, Windy Hill)

TO COME: North Melbourne (10.30am Saturday, Arden St)

IF THEY WIN: Will finish 5^th if Box Hill and Collingwood lose, 6^th if one of them win or 7^th if they both win.

IF THEY LOSE: Will finish 7^th if Carlton and Richmond loses, 8^th if one of them win or 9^th if they both win.

SUMMARY: Given their weak percentage, the calculations are simple for the Suns. Win or draw and they will play finals, but if they lose the first game of the round they will face a nervous wait for 25 hours to see if they can hold on.

PREDICTION: 12-6 (7^th)

8^th, 10-7, 118.8%

STREAK: Lost 1

LAST FIVE WEEKS: lost to Casey Demons (16, Casey Fields); bye; lost to Williamstown (18, Williamstown Football Ground); def GWS Giants (37, Ikon Park); def Geelong (11, Ikon Park)

TO COME: Collingwood (11.45am Sunday, MCG)

IF THEY WIN: by roughly 16 points or more: will finish 5^th if Box Hill and Gold Coast also lose and the Blues can make up the 5.24% (58 points) deficit to the Hawks; 6^th if one of those happens or 7^th if neither happen. Drop one spot on those scenarios if they win by less than 16 points. Could still finish 9^th if Richmond wins and makes up a 4.53% deficit (49 points).

IF THEY LOSE: Will finish 8^th if Richmond loses or 9^th if the Tigers win.

SUMMARY: A solid effort against the Demons, but no all-important W. As if they need any more motivation to knock off the Magpies at the G but wrapping up a finals berth would be top of the list. With the Tigers playing Saturday, the Blues will know exactly what they need to do on the big stage.

PREDICTION: 10-8 (9^th)

9^th, 10-7, 114.27%

STREAK: Won 1

LAST FIVE WEEKS: bye; def Northern Bullants (82, Genis Steel Oval); lost to Brisbane Lions 25, Swinburne Centre); def Williamstown (55, Swinburne Centre); def North Melbourne (2, Arden Street Oval)

TO COME: Frankston (2.10pm Saturday, Swinburne Centre)

IF THEY WIN: Can finish as high as 5^th if Box Hill, Collingwood and Gold Coast all lose and the Tigers make up the 4.53% (49 points) deficit to the victorious Blues, but they will need to close percentage deficits to the Hawks and Magpies as well. Can get 6^th if all but one of those happen or 7^th if two occur. Will finish 7^th if Gold Coast and Carlton loses, 8^th if one of them wins or 9^th if they both win.

IF THEY LOSE: Will still pinch 8^th if Carlton loses by enough to overturn the 4.53% gap (49 points), otherwise they will be 9^th.

SUMMARY: The equation is even easier than for the Suns. If they lose the longest premiership defence in football history it is all over unless Collingwood hammers Carlton. If the Suns lose earlier they will know victory seals a finals berth. They don’t have total control of their destiny, but they can only take care of business and then hope.

PREDICTION: 11-7 (8^th)

10^th, 8-8-1, 101.86%

STREAK: Lost 4

LAST FIVE WEEKS: bye; lost to Essendon (30, Giants Stadium); lost to Sydney (38, SCG); lost to Carlton (37, Ikon Park); lost to Brisbane Lions (18, Blacktown International Sports Park)

TO COME: Footscray (12.05pm Saturday, Blacktown International Sports Park)

IF THEY WIN: Will finish 10^th

IF THEY LOSE: Will finish 11^th if Werribee loses or 12^th if the Tigers win.

SUMMARY: Have lost their way in the back end of the season but will be looking at this game against as fierce rival as a Grand Final come early.

PREDICTION: 8-9-1 (12^th)

11^th, 8-9, 112.49%

STREAK: Lost 4

LAST FIVE WEEKS: lost to Essendon (5, Windy Hill); lost to Brisbane Lions (12, Moreton Bay Sports Complex); lost to Footscray (26, Avalon) Airport Oval; bye; lost to Box Hill (7, Box Hill City Ovak)

TO COME: Northern Bullants (2.05pm Saturday, Avalon Airport Oval)

IF THEY WIN: Will finish 10^th if Footscray wins, unless the Bulldogs catch their 3.57% deficit, then they will be 11^th. Will be 11^th if GWS wins.

IF THEY LOSE: Will finish 11^th if GWS wins, but could drop to 12^th if they lose by enough to drop their percentage below a defeated Bulldogs. Will be 12^th if Footscray wins and 13^th if Sandringham also wins.

SUMMARY: A bitterly disappointing month for the Tigers has seen the season slip away very quickly. Several close losses have proven fatal to their chances and all that remains is for them to show what could have been when they throw the gates open to free entry against the Bullants on Saturday.

PREDICTION: 9-9 (10^th)

12^th, 8-9, 108.92%

STREAK: Won 2

LAST FIVE WEEKS: bye; def Coburg (123, VU Whitten Oval); def Werribee (26, Avalon Airport Oval); lost to Casey (23, VU Whitten Oval); bye

TO COME: GWS Giants (12.05pm Saturday, Blacktown International Sports Park)

IF THEY WIN: Will finish 10^th if Werribee loses, or if they can make up the 3.57% deficit with both winning. Will be 11^th if Werribee wins and holds its percentage lead.

IF THEY LOSE: Will finish 11^th if Werribee loses by enough to fall behind on percentage, otherwise they will be 12^th.

SUMMARY: The Bulldogs should be able to get themselves up one last time for a clash with the Giants, especially with many players still striving for potential AFL finals spots if the club sneaks into September.

PREDICTION: 9-9 (11^th)

13^th, 8-10, 86.96%

STREAK: Won 4

LAST FIVE WEEKS: def Werribee (5, Windy Hill); def GWS Giants (30, Giants Stadium); def North Melbourne (29, Windy Hill); def Southport (2, Fankhauser Reserve); lost to Gold Coast Suns (3, Windy Hill)

TO COME: bye

SUMMARY: What a second half of the year. Eight wins in the last 10 games has given them plenty of excitement for next year, regardless of where they finish between 13^th and 15^th. They’ve also been the catalyst for the slides of Southport and Sandringham and snuffed out GWS and Werribee’s seasons.

PREDICTION: 8-10 (14^th)

14^th, 7-9-1, 90.98%

STREAK: Lost 3

LAST FIVE WEEKS: lost to Brisbane Lions (25, Trevor Barker Beach Oval); lost to Geelong (2, GMBHA Stadium); bye; lost to Port Melbourne (51, Trevor Barker Beach Oval); def Coburg (28, Piranha Park)

TO COME: Williamstown (1.35pm Sunday, Williamstown Football Ground)

IF THEY WIN: Will finish 11^th if Werribee and Footscray lose or if GWS loses by enough for the two results to overturn a 10.88% gap. Will be 12^th if Werribee loses and one of the others occur or 13^th if neither happens.

IF THEY LOSE: Will finish 15^th unless Geelong draws with Port Melbourne. If that happens they will mostly likely stay 14^th, but could drop to 16^th if they lose by enough to drop their percentage below the Cats and Borough.

SUMMARY: Another late season slump for the Zebras, but they will go to Point Gellibrand hoping for a positive finish to the year to send Sam Dunell out a winner – although it is a ground where they haven’t won since a one-point thriller in 2010.

PREDICTION: 7-10-1 (15^th)

15^th, 7-10, 86.07%

STREAK: Won 1

LAST FIVE WEEKS: def Frankston (4, ETU Stadium); bye; lost to Gold Coast Suns (69, Metricon Stadium); def Sandringham (51, Trevor Barker Beach Oval); lost to Collingwood (33, ETU Stadium)

TO COME: Geelong (1.05pm Sunday, GMHBA Stadium)

IF THEY WIN: Will finish 13^th if Sandringham loses or 14^th if the Zebras win, assuming they make up the 0.89% deficit to Essendon.

IF THEY LOSE: Will finish 16^th if Frankston loses or 17^th if the Dolphins win.

SUMMARY: What a comeback by the Borough last week, and they will head to down the highway confident of an eighth win to finish the year, which would be a wonderful result given where they finished last season. Either way, there is a lot to look forward to at ETU Stadium.

PREDICTION: 7-11 (16^th)

16^th, 7-10, 87.59%

STREAK: Lost 1

LAST FIVE WEEKS: lost to Box Hill Hawks (43, Box Hill City Oval); def Sandringham (2, GMHBA Stadium); lost to Coburg (44, Mars Stadium); bye; lost to Carlton (11, Ikon Park)

TO COME: Port Melbourne (1.05pm Sunday, GMHBA Stadium)

IF THEY WIN: Will finish 13^th if Sandringham loses or 14^th if the Zebras win, assuming they make up the 1.58% deficit to Essendon.

IF THEY LOSE: Will finish 16^th if Frankston loses or 17^th if the Dolphins win.

SUMMARY: Finals are on the horizon for the Cats’ AFL team and there are a lot of players hoping to attract Chris Scott’s attention. It makes this a non-negotiable on their home ground.

PREDICTION: 8-10 (13^th)

17^th, 6-11, 92.25%

STREAK: Lost 3

LAST FIVE WEEKS: lost to Port Melbourne (4, ETU Stadium); lost to Box Hill Hawks (51, Skybus Stadium); bye; lost to Sydney (44, Lakeside Oval Sydney); def Northern Bullants (52, Skybus Stadium)

TO COME: Richmond (2.10pm Saturday, Swinburne Centre)

IF THEY WIN: Will finish 16^th

IF THEY LOSE: Will finish 17^th

SUMMARY: Were irresistible in the first half against the Borough but ran out of soldiers and legs in the second, yet still very nearly held on. Even though the retiring Josh Newman won’t be playing, they will be desperate to honour their heart and soul in the right manner – and end Richmond’s season in the process.

PREDICTION: 6-12 (17^th)

18^th, 4-13, 71.12%

STREAK: Won 1

LAST FIVE WEEKS: def Coburg (58, Piranha Park); lost to Sydney (20, Arden Street Oval); lost to Essendon (29, Windy Hill); bye; lost to Richmond (2, Arden Street Oval)

TO COME: Gold Coast (10.30am Saturday, Arden Street Oval)

IF THEY WIN: Will finish 18^th unless Coburg wins by enough to overturn a 5.2% deficit, in which case they will be 19^th.

IF THEY LOSE: Will finish 18^th if Coburg and Williamstown lose, 19^th if the Lions win or the Seagulls do but don’t make up the percentage, or 20^th if both results go against the Kangaroos.

SUMMARY: Impressive win over the Lions last week and they will think themselves a real chance to throw shade over the Suns’ fairytale. There is no reason why they can’t spring an upset if they bring their best.

PREDICTION: 4-14 (18^th)

19^th, 4-13, 65.92%

STREAK: Lost 2

LAST FIVE WEEKS: lost to North Melbourne (58, Piranha Park); lost to Footscray (123, VU Whitten Oval); def Geelong (44, Mars Stadium); bye; lost to Sandringham (28, Piranha Park)

TO COME: Southport (11.35am Saturday, Fankhauser Reserve)

IF THEY WIN: Will finish 18^th if North Melbourne loses or 19^th if the Kangaroos win unless they can make up the 5.2% deficit.

IF THEY LOSE: Will finish 18^th if North Melbourne loses – dropping its 5.2% lead – and Williamstown loses. Will be 19^th if the Kangaroos hold their percentage and the Seagulls lose. Will be 20th if the Roos hold the percentage and Williamstown wins.

SUMMARY: Missed out on the chance to salute retiring co-captain Peter McEvoy on their home turf, but if they can do just that at Fankhauser they should upgrade their flight home to first class.

PREDICTION: 4-14 (20^th)

20^th, 3-14, 66.16%

STREAK: Lost 1

LAST FIVE WEEKS: bye; lost to Collingwood (78, AIA Centre); def Carlton (14, Williamstown Football Ground); lost to Richmond (55, Swinburne Centre); bye

TO COME: Sandringham (1.35pm Sunday, Williamstown Cricket Ground)

IF THEY WIN: Will finish 18^th if North Melbourne and Coburg lose and they make up 4.96% to the Kangaroos. Will be 19^th if one of the Roos or Lions win or North holds its percentage. Will be 20^th if both North and Coburg win.

IF THEY LOSE: Will finish 20^th

SUMMARY: Got a couple of major boosts this week with the re-signings of captain Cam Polson and ruckman Tom Downie and will be aiming for a positive finish to the year against a Zebras team that hasn’t won at Hobsons Bay since 2010.

PREDICTION: 4-14 (19^th)

21^st, 1-16, 58.46%

STREAK: Lost 13

LAST FIVE WEEKS: bye; lost to Richmond (82, Genis Steel Oval); lost to Casey (91, Casey Fields); lost to Box Hill (56, Genis Steel Oval); lost to Frankston (52, Skybus Stadium)

TO COME: Werribee (2.05pm Saturday, Avalon Airport Oval)

IF THEY WIN: Will finish 21^st

IF THEY LOSE: Will finish 21^st

SUMMARY: A long season draws to a close, but there is still much the Bullants can achieve against an out-of-form Werribee in Round 22. Will be desperate for a strong display to springboard into 2023. Free entry for all supporters at Tigerland on Saturday.

PREDICTION: 1-17 (21^st)

Twitter: @BRhodesVFL

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