SEASON 2010 has been one of extraordinary rises and falls.
The Brisbane Lions, Hawthorn, Richmond, Essendon, the Swans and Carlton have all been talking points this season based on dramatic form slumps or stunning revivals.
But the story of the year may end up being the Adelaide Crows.
Just six weeks ago the pride of South Australia sat 15th on the ladder with a win-loss record of 2-8 and a percentage of 76.
Six games and five wins later, the Crows are pecking at the fringe of the eight. A victory over the mighty Geelong has fans screaming ‘finals’, and the players are starting to believe.
If they make it, the Crows will make history.
Not since Fitzroy made the final five in 1984 has a team started 2-8 and played off in September. No team has managed it since the inception of the final eight in 1994.
The turnaround has been based on a simple premise - the more times you get the ball forward, the more times you should score.
Adelaide has placed a focus on moving the ball forward, increasing their kick-to-handball ratio from 1.05:1 after round 10 to 1.21:1 now.
That simple change has contributed to a commanding dominance of the inside-50 statistic in the Crows’ last six outings.
In that time they’ve averaged 57 inside-50s per game - ranked first in the competition. In the first ten rounds they averaged just 47 - ranked 14th.
With outstanding pressure through the midfield the Crows have also managed to restrict the number of times their opposition has gone forward.
On Friday night they held the Cats to just 42 inside-50s.
A look at the average inside-50 differential (inside-50s for versus inside-50s against) of all teams in the past six rounds shows just how well the Crows are going;
| Average inside 50 differential - rounds 11 to 16 | |
|---|---|
| Adelaide | 16.2 |
| St Kilda | 11.2 |
| Collingwood | 11.2 |
| Hawthorn | 9.7 |
| Western Bulldogs | 7.0 |
| Carlton | 6.3 |
| North Melbourne | 3.0 |
| Geelong | 2.8 |
| Richmond | 2.0 |
| Sydney | 1.7 |
| Fremantle | -6.3 |
| Port Adelaide | -7.3 |
| Essendon | -11.8 |
| West Coast | -12.7 |
| Melbourne | -16.3 |
| Brisbane | -16.5 |
The Crows have not lost the inside-50 battle in any of their past four games, smashing Melbourne 60-29 in round 13, Essendon 58-32 in round 14 and West Coast 69-47 in round 15 before once again winning the stat against the Cats on Friday.
Now just a game outside the eight, Adelaide plays Port, Richmond, Western Bulldogs, Brisbane Lions, Collingwood and St Kilda in the run home.
They’ll need four and possibly five wins to sneak into the finals, but if you listen to the rumble of their passionate supporter base, you could be led to believe it’s already a done deal.
The views in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
