Part 1: The Magpie defence
The second edition of this week’s three-part ‘Ultimate Preview’ focuses on the midfield matchups.
Collingwood and Geelong possess the two best midfields in the competition and the head to head battles will be enthralling. Both midfields have extraordinary depth and a number of players who can rotate seamlessly between the centre and the forward line.
Collingwood’s midfield probably has a bit more pace. However Geelong is a bit sharper and cohesive at the moment and is moving the ball more fluently. The Cats also possess bigger bodied midfielders and two giant ruckmen.
In last year’s preliminary final, Collingwood’s youth and flare blew away the Geelong midfield. A year later and Geelong’s midfield is the one playing with confidence and flare. In some regards, Collingwood needs to shut the game down to slow the Geelong ball movement.
On the other hand, the Cats have such great in and under players and they will relish a dogfight. Collingwood’s best bet is to play on instinct and play without fear. Malthouse admitted last week that the Magpies were ‘tight’ going into the preliminary final and played within themselves. The side released the shackles in the last quarter and kicked five goals to run over the top of the Hawks.
Luke Ball v Joel Selwood - Ball and Selwood are the engine room of their respective sides and have both had terrific seasons. Selwood probably has the points in recent meetings against Collingwood. However Luke Ball is in career form and has kicked the match-winning goal in both finals. He is a big game player and will lift for this match. Clearances will be a massive statistic as both sides employ a forward press. Therefore, the winner of the Ball v Selwood battle will ensure their side is getting first hands on the footy and can set up forward zones. I expect a head to head battle, with both players sticking close to each other around stoppages but allowing freedom in the general field of play.
Dane Swan v Cameron Ling - This is the expected matchup, however I would not be surprised to see Ling start forward on Shaw, with Kelly starting on Swan. Nonetheless, Ling typically starts on Swan and will probably take this matchup again despite the fact that Swan has a good record against Ling in recent matches. Swan will be on a high after Monday night’s Brownlow Medal victory, but his celebrations will have to remain on hold until after the Grand Final. He was absolutely brilliant against Hawthorn and was the real leader in the Magpie comeback. He had 32 disposals and kicked a crucial goal. Ling’s form has also been good. He is shutting down his opponents and winning plenty of the football.
Scott Pendlebury v Jimmy Bartel - I think Geelong will opt to use Bartel against Pendlebury and look to attack him. Pendlebury has had a terrific season and has really established himself as a leader of the side. Bartel will be playing sore after sustaining a knock to the ribs in the preliminary final, but he is a player who seems to play better under adversity. Pendlebury also had 32 disposals in the preliminary final and was terrific in the qualifying final as well. He is probably the most damaging midfielder in the Collingwood side and shutting him down will be a huge focus for Geelong.
Dale Thomas v James Kelly - After not playing footy for a month, Thomas was a bit scratchy in his return game last week. His disposal was wonky, he struggled to win the ball and he wasn’t as clean with his hands as he usually is. However, his defensive pressure was absolutely phenomenal and he was the game’s leading tackler with nine. He also made a crucial tackle on Cyril Rioli, which pretty much sealed the game for Collingwood. Undoubtedly he will be better for the run and should be sharp again on Saturday. I think his opponent will be James Kelly who has had a terrific year for Geelong.
In the absence of Ablett, it has been Kelly who has stood up and taken extra responsibility through the centre. He was best on ground last week against West Coast and I believe he is one of Geelong’s most important players. He is able to serve a number of roles for his side including defensive jobs, yet is such a reliable and consistent user of the football.
Sharrod Wellingham v Joel Corey - Corey has had an injury-interrupted year but fought his way back into the side in last week’s preliminary final match. He is far from match fit, but he is the sort of player who can seamlessly fit back into the side. Sharrod Wellingham is likely to play on Corey. He had a terrific qualifying final against West Coast, but was subdued last week against Hawthorn with only 13 touches. He is an important player for Collingwood as his pace and ability to win the ball cleanly in congestion really balances the Magpie midfield.
The Ruck
The one area of the ground Geelong would consider it has a real advantage is in the ruck. With Darren Jolly not at full health, West and Ottens have a real chance to take control. Both Cats would feel really confident against Leigh Brown who they will have a distinct height advantage over.
If Jolly does not to play and Cameron Wood is recalled, I fear the Geelong ruck combination will be the decisive factor. Nonetheless, if the Collingwood medical staff is able to nurse Jolly through one more game and he is able to run it out strongly, then it evens up the contest significantly.
The real test for Collingwood will be managing Ottens and West when they push forward. With Reid also battling groin issues, Geelong has the opportunity to stretch the Magpies shorter defence. Maxwell will be forced to play taller and O’Brien may also be forced to cover.
If Collingwood is able to nullify the Geelong rucks then it will go a long way to winning back-to-back premierships.
The Wrap Up
As always, the game will likely be won and lost in the midfield. Both sides are so even all over the park, so getting first hands on the footy and applying intense pressure will be decisive.
Geelong’s midfield is definitely sharper and tackling with more intensity at the moment. However, if Collingwood can click into gear, it still has the potential to run Geelong off its feet.
