Head to head: Geelong 123 wins, St Kilda 81 wins
Last time: St Kilda 10.10 (70) d Geelong 6.10 (46), round 13, 2010 at the MCG
MISSING IN ACTION
Geelong
Mitch Brown (shoulder) - season
Max Rooke (knee) - 1 week
Jesse Stringer (hip) - season
Adam Varcoe (knee) - season
James Podsiadly (suspended) 1 week
St Kilda
Steven Baker (toe) - test
Raphael Clarke (hamstring) - season
Robert Eddy (hand) - test
Sam Fisher (corked thigh) - test
Steven Milne (ankle) - test
Adam Schneider (corked thigh) - test
Jesse Smith (ankle) - season
FORM
Geelong: WLWWW
St Kilda: LWWWL
SUMMARY
This has become one of the great rivalries in modern footy. Ever since the Cats and Saints did battle in the pre-season decider back in 2004, the two teams have spent most of their time near the top of the ladder and have staged some great contests, none better than last year’s grand final. On that day, Geelong prevailed by 12 points, despite St Kilda having dominated large parts of the game. The result handed the Cats their second premiership in three years and left the Saints rueing many missed opportunities.
This latest meeting should be another beauty, with both sides in form and untroubled by serious injuries. Last time they met, in round 13, St Kilda choked Geelong in the midfield so effectively that the Saints held the Cats goalless in the second half. With more wet weather predicted, expect similar tactics but also expect Geelong to handle them better.PLAYER TO WATCH
In the midst of what has probably been his best season in the AFL, Steve Johnson will play his 150th game this weekend. So far in 2010, the mercurial forward has booted has booted 57 goals in 19 games, and the Cats will certainly need another solid performance from him.
However, Johnson is expected to be closely checked by Steven Baker. Baker is free to play after completing his nine-week suspension for roughing up Johnson when the teams last clashed. St Kilda coach Ross Lyon has expressed his desire to bring Baker straight back into the Saints’ line-up.
QUESTION MARKS
Will Steven Baker go to Steve Johnson at the opening bounce? The crowd would love to see it happen, and the Saints’ coaches certainly haven’t ruled it out.
Can Mark Blake stay in the Cats’ team? With the suspended James Podsiadly set to return in Geelong’s next game, Blake needs to play well to hold his place.
Can Cameron Mooney regain his best form in his 200th league match? His team really needs him to fire on Friday night.
WHO WILL WIN AND WHY
If the weather is wet, such conditions are more likely to suit the St Kilda’s grinding, high-pressure style of play. Couple that with their burning desire to make up for last year’s grand final defeat, and the Saints might win simply because they have more motivation.
PREDICTION
St Kilda by 13 points
Chat with host Luke Holmesby and other fans in the AFL Match Centre on afl.com.au from 7.15pm Friday night or join the conversation on Twitter: #aflcatssaints
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
