IF FREMANTLE can emerge from this week's bye and secure a finals berth in the last eight games of the season it will be a significant accomplishment.
Taking consecutive wins into the week off, sitting in sixth place on the ladder, and with players returning from injury, Fremantle's season appears stable on the surface. In reality, its run home is the toughest of any finals contender.
Of its remaining eight games, Fremantle plays eight teams jockeying for a finals spot, and it will need to win four of those to play in September.
Significantly, the team's home ground advantage is unlikely to be much help, with three of its remaining four games at Patersons Stadium against top-four teams Hawthorn, Carlton and Collingwood. The other, a western derby in round 18 against the fifth placed West Coast, will see the home ground advantage eliminated all together.
Mark Harvey's team could realistically need four wins from four games on the road to make the finals, with games against the Sydney Swans (SCG), St Kilda, North Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs (all Etihad Stadium) to come.
A favourable draw has seen the injury-hit club stay in the top half of the ladder, with 10 of its 14 games to this point against teams currently outside the top eight (including the Brisbane Lions twice).
North Melbourne, which will compete with Fremantle for a position in the eight, doesn't have an easy draw either, but its run home makes for an interesting comparison.
The Kangaroos sat dead last after a horror opening month that took them to Patersons Stadium twice and saw them take on the reigning premiers Collingwood. But they turned their season around with four straight wins between rounds 11 and 14.
They take on the Magpies again this week, but from that point on the Roos have the chance to build momentum with winnable games against the Western Bulldogs and the Brisbane Lions.
Brad Scott's team plays six of its last seven games at Etihad Stadium and finishes the season against Fremantle, St Kilda and Richmond.
Clubs refuse to talk about targeting blocks of winnable games, but if the Roos are still a mathematical chance in round 22, they are three games they could win on the eve of the finals.
There is no such winnable block for Fremantle, which is one of seven clubs fighting for three finals spots.
Having the toughest draw of those seven perhaps explains the cautious post-match message from players and coaches after Saturday's 50-point win over Gold Coast.
"Realistically we've beaten Gold Coast, who are a developing side, and Brisbane, who are also in development mode," Hayden Ballantyne said. "We're not getting too ahead of ourselves."
Mark Harvey was equally measured. "This competition's tight and you can't get carried away with things," Harvey said. "It's going to be a tight run home."
CLUB BY CLUB
GEELONG: The contrast between West Coast's "land of the giants" forward line and Geelong's smaller set-up will be obvious on Friday night. With James Podsiadly beaten by Michael Hurley, the Cats lacked other marking targets against Essendon. What lies ahead for Cameron Mooney and Tom Hawkins in the run to the finals?
COLLINGWOOD: Ben Reid arrived at Collingwood courtesy of the No.8 pick in the 2006 NAB AFL Draft, which Fremantle had given to the Pies in exchange for Chris Tarrant. Now Tarrant and Reid are playing alongside each other, with the latter in All Australian form. Good dealing.
CARLTON: Twenty-eight goals, and 13 separate goalkickers. Richmond put the tape in the bin, but it might be worth a re-watch for Blues fans.
HAWTHORN: It's back to the drawing board for Alastair Clarkson after the Hawks' "slice and dice" short kicking game came unstuck against the Pies. Injuries have cursed Hawthorn, and an out-numbered Lance Franklin struggled to have an impact without Jarryd Roughead alongside him.
WEST COAST: A charmed run with injury this season was topped off by Beau Waters' return through the WAFL at the weekend. The vice-captain has put his hand up to face Geelong on Friday night, with small forward Ryan Neates now the only player on the Eagles' injury list.
FREMANTLE: It will be interesting to see how Mark Harvey handles ruckman Jon Griffin when Aaron Sandilands returns from injury in three weeks. The former Crow hasn't been able to get a game with his All Australian teammate in the side, but he is demanding a rethink of that selection strategy.
SYDNEY SWANS: After three straight losses, the Swans' top eight spot is vulnerable, but they have a favourable three-week draw. They face Gold Coast next week before consecutive games at the SCG, against Fremantle and the Western Bulldogs.
ESSENDON: The Bombers' five-game losing streak started against Richmond in round nine, and the re-match on Saturday night will perhaps reveal more about James Hird's team than the upset win of the season against Geelong.
MELBOURNE: A bye this week was the only way to stop, albeit momentarily, the Demons rollercoaster season.
NORTH MELBOURNE: Lindsay Thomas is a forward in desperate need of a cure for the yips. Todd Goldstein's stocks, however, continue to soar.
WESTERN BULLDOGS: GWS speculation certainly isn't hurting Callan Ward's footy. He will be selected for the rest of this season regardless of his decision, which is a smart move.
ST KILDA: Still a finals threat with their best players performing again.
RICHMOND: The Tigers thanked their fans for supporting the 'Fighting Tiger Fund' on Saturday night and collected donations before their match against Carlton. It was an unfortunate week to lose by 103 points.
ADELAIDE: Ian Callinan can't take a trick. The 28-year-old rookie promised so much pre-season before injuring a bicep. Then, after an impressive AFL debut in round 14, suffered a hamstring injury against the Swans.
BRISBANE LIONS: Deserved to sing the song after a season of generally admirable efforts, but few results. A strong finish, rather than a fourth-quarter capitulation, was the difference against Port.
PORT ADELAIDE: There will be short-term pain in the ruck without Dean Brogan, with the Brisbane Lions winning the hit-outs 51-32 at the weekend.
GOLD COAST: There is so much to enjoy about watching the Suns even when they're losing games by 50 points. Trent McKenzie's two 55m goals off a couple of steps against Fremantle were the highlights this week.
PLAYER OF THE WEEK
Chris Judd was sublime in the Blues' mauling of Richmond, but Gary Ablett gets the nod this week for his tireless efforts against the tide at Patersons Stadium. Gold Coast travelled to face Fremantle without injured onballer Michael Rischitelli, leaving Ablett to play a lone hand in the Suns' young midfield. He responded with 34 possessions (16 contested), eight clearances and three goals, clearly best afield in a 50-point loss. Ablett and Rischitelli have combined to average 13 tackles a game this season, and Ablett had 14 himself against Freo. It would be hard to win the Brownlow Medal from the last placed side, but he could.
THE TWITTERATTI
"Looking forward to catching up with @Joelselwood14 who's been forward scouting the West Coast talent for the boys." Geelong's Shannon Byrnes (@ShannonBoourns) hopes Joel Selwood's training break with WAFL club South Fremantle will benefit the team on Friday night.
"Is down watching his best mate @nobbsy7 play for Hamersley Carine! There should have been several reports made already!!!! #bringoutthebook" West Coast's Mark Nicoski (@marknicoski) used his weekend off to get in touch with suburban football.
NEXT WEEK'S GAME NOT TO BE MISSED
West Coast-Geelong, Friday night at Patersons Stadium. The Cats' shock loss to Essendon has added even more spice to an obvious match of the round, with West Coast primed to shake the ladder leaders. The Eagles haven't beaten the Cats since a remarkable match at Skilled Stadium during their 2006 premiership campaign. West Coast came back from a 54-point deficit halfway through the third term to win by three points.
The views in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of the AFL or its clubs
