WHO IS going to take the next step in AFL Fantasy in 2023?

We are looking at breakout candidates for the upcoming season. By breakout, we are looking for players who are set to take their game to the next level, producing a significant increase on their current average and therefore providing great value.

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When looking for a breakout candidate, factors such as natural progression, role change and increased opportunities are key research areas. Traditionally, the third year has been a happy hunting ground for breakouts, but it certainly isn't limited to players entering that season and I will also be keeping an eye out for secondary breakouts, which is players looking to take the next leap into a triple-figure average.

Here are the top 10 to consider.

10. Kane Farrell (MID, $590,000)

After recovering from an ACL, the impressive lefty returned last year to produce career-best numbers, averaging 67, which included a season-high 100 in round 17 when he had 16 possessions and eight marks. With talented winger Karl Amon departing for Hawthorn, there is every chance Farrell slots into that role and takes advantage of the marking opportunities it provides at Port Adelaide. He is too awkwardly priced for a midfield option in Classic, but I would bump him up a deep Draft list.

9. Will Setterfield (MID, $610,000)

As a 25-year-old, the breakout window starts to close, especially for a player at his third club, but there is a lot to like about the former pick five. Despite never averaging 70 across his first five seasons, he has shown the ability to eclipse that on several occasions including the last five games of 2022, when he averaged 88 over a five-game stretch. He has also shown he can do it at VFL level, averaging 107, and opportunities will be greater at Essendon than they were at Carlton.

8. Josh Ward (MID, $634,000)

We saw the pick seven from the 2021 draft take full advantage of the midfield opportunities he was given in the second half of last year, averaging 89 after the bye which looks pretty nice compared to the 72 average he is priced at. Like Nick Daicos, the 19-year-old is only in his second year in the system so it can be hard to turn it up a notch but the fact we saw him finish the season so well for a significant number of weeks suggests he is every chance to go again in the absence of Tom Mitchell and Jaeger O'Meara.

7. Archie Perkins (FWD/MID, $527,000)

After averaging 50 and then 60 in his first two seasons playing predominantly forward, a breakout is certainly on the cards, especially given the pre-season hype about him being given more opportunity through the midfield under Brad Scott. The former pick nine has demonstrated the ability to play through the middle on the rare occasions he has been given the chance in his 38-game career so he is one to keep an eye on in the pre-season games and certainly one to bump up the draft order as a forward. If the CBAs are there, he could have 20 points in him.

6. Hayden Young (DEF, $776,000)

The 21-year-old former pick seven has looked impressive since first setting foot on the big stage and he is coming off a great year where he averaged 88. We would need a triple-figure average from the elite ball user, who is entering his fourth year, to consider it a successful secondary breakout but the impressive defender certainly has the skillset to do it. He averaged 90 in his last five games but it was his finals form that caught the eye after averaging 110 in that time as it became obvious the Dockers want the ball in his hands to take full advantage of his superb foot skills and composure.

5. Nick Daicos (DEF, $769,000)

It sounds silly talking about a breakout from a player who debuted with an average of 87 but it's all about looking at whether the young star can leap right into Roy's Rollin' 22 defender mix in just his second year. The obvious concerns are there. The Pies didn't play the same Fantasy-friendly game style we had become used to last year and of even more concern, Daicos was so good and so damaging that he likely has a shutdown target on his back. Having said this, I think he will spend longer periods in the midfield than he did last year and from all reports he is ready after completing an impressive pre-season to date. We have seen significant leaps in the past from second-yearers with Clayton Oliver providing the perfect example.

4. Jai Newcombe (MID, $775,000)

After being selected by the Hawks in the 2021 NAB AFL Mid-Season Rookie Draft, the tackling machine has wasted no time becoming their main man in the middle. Last year was very impressive from the 21-year-old, averaging 87 on his way to runner-up in the best and fairest award. Now as far as searching for increased opportunity and responsibility, it doesn't come much clearer than removing the two biggest midfield stars in your team in Mitchell and O'Meara and basically being thrown the keys to the engine room. It can be tough to consistently score for a team that is expected to vie for the wooden spoon but his CBAs should increase and he isn't the type of player to turn his back on a challenge.

3. Caleb Serong (MID, $777,000)

I thought last year was the year we would see a traditional third-year breakout from the hard-nosed Docker and take the leap to premium status while claiming a triple-figure average. It turned out, however, to be his third consecutive year averaging in the 80s, once again restricted with TOG compared to rival midfielders. The retirement of David Mundy should ensure his 66 per cent CBAs increase, although I remain cautious to some extent given the arrival of O'Meara so a pre-season watch will be vital, keeping an eye out for what percentage of time he looks like spending in the middle. He has the tools, we just need a green light on role.

2. Jai Culley (MID, $490,000)

There has been a lot of hype coming from the Eagles camp and most of it has been around the 20-year-old mid-season draftee. He burst onto the scene last year with his eye-catching tackling the highlight, registering 28 tackles across his games that weren't cut short by injury. He attended plenty of CBAs and appears to have consolidated himself in the midfield mix despite the return of Dom Sheed and Elliot Yeo. As far as price goes, his discount for only playing four games and injury-impacted 36 leaves a breakout on the cards against his price tag, which reflects a 55 average.

1. Tom Green (MID, $752,000)

The young Giant enters his fourth season ticking all the boxes to elevate his game to the next level. He has made steady progress throughout his first three years, recording averages of 73 and 85 in the most recent. He started last year in a blaze of glory with four hundreds in the first five games before cooling his jets and dropping off for the remainder of the year, bar the odd triple-figure score to remind us he has what it takes to average a ton. The departure of Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper creates obvious opportunity and increased responsibility for the 22-year-old former pick 10, and from all reports regarding Greater Western Sydney's pre-season, he is taking it with both hands.

Apologies to: Jason Horne-Francis, Luke Davies-Uniacke, Andrew McGrath, James Rowbottom and Adam Cerra.

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