Head to head: Collingwood 113 wins, Carlton 123 wins, four draws
Last time: Collingwood 24.11 (155) d Carlton 16.6 (102), round six, 2010 at the MCG
MISSING IN ACTION
Collingwood
Anthony Corrie (knee) - 1-2 weeks
Brad Dick (shoulder) - test
Heath Shaw (back) - test
Carlton
Dennis Armfield (neck) - test
Ryan Houlihan (knee) - test
Matthew Kreuzer (knee) - season
Kane Lucas (hamstring) - indefinite
Brock McLean (knee) - 1 week
Rhys O’Keeffe (back) - indefinite
Simon White (hip) - season
FORM
Collingwood: WWWWW
Carlton: LWLLW
SUMMARY
Despite the Blues returning to the winner’s list last weekend it’s hard to find a case for a Carlton win this week.
Collingwood has been in blistering form, and coach Mick Malthouse has a squad of around 30 from which to choose his best 22 each week given the depth at the Westpac Centre. Following the Queen’s Birthday draw against Melbourne, the Pies have now strung together five on the trot - the best of those easily being the relatively comfortable win over St Kilda. The Pies seem to no longer struggle to put away sides they should beat. Last week they dispatched Richmond in a canter, with every man on the ground doing his part at some stage. That’s the beauty of this team at the moment. While it has the brilliance of Dane Swan and Alan Didak, it doesn’t rely on that to get the job done.
Carlton looked to be digging itself into a further hole at the half-way point of last week’s clash against the Eagles but, through the efforts of its star-studded midfield, managed to find a way out. West Coast has been playing some better football, but a similarly-slow start against the Pies this week won’t allow any such comeback. The Blues would have been encouraged by the performance of Shaun Grigg, who kept Brett Ratten’s side in it early, while Robbie Warnock was also good in curbing Dean Cox. The big four of Chris Judd, Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs and Kade Simpson all found plenty of it after half time to lead their side to victory. That quartet will need huge games on Saturday if the Blues are to upset their famous rival.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Magpie Sharrod Wellingham’s form has tapered a little in recent weeks but he has been very good in 2010, especially early in the year. Against the Blues earlier this season he had 23 disposals, laid seven tackles and kicked two goals.
Carlton youngster Chris Yarran had an equal career-high 18 possessions and booted 2.2 when these two sides played a highly-entertaining match in round six at the MCG. Yarran and his fleet-footed team mates in attack will again need to fire if the Blues are to be any chance.
QUESTION MARKS
Last week Chris Dawes and Leigh Brown were the key targets in a Collingwood forward line that shared it around to boot 19 goals. Will that unheralded combination again lead the Pies to a winning score?
Robbie Warnock and Sam Jacobs did a great job nullifying Dean Cox and Nick Naitanui last week, but this week they face an in-form Darren Jolly. Can the two Blues halt the Pie’s momentum?
Collingwood’s backline has been very good all year. While the Blues were able to kick some big scores earlier this season, one wonders if it’s Eddie Betts or bust? If so, where are the goals going to come from?
WHO WILL WIN AND WHY
Collingwood charged clear when the two met earlier in the year before the Blues showed great fight to rally. However the Pies showed their class by again storming away.
The final margin probably reflected the difference in talent - but more importantly depth - between the two squads. The Pies don’t possess the player of the quality of Chris Judd, yet could the Blues bring a rookie - like Jarryd Blair - into the team and have the side not miss a beat? Collingwood is just so even, with little separating the 10th and 22nd player picked. That’s why the Pies are so good, and so hard to hold off for long periods.
PREDICTION
Collingwood by 41 points
Chat with host Jen Witham and other fans in the AFL Match Centre on afl.com.au from 1.40pm Saturday or join the conversation on Twitter: #aflpiesblues
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
